Using negotiated budgets for planning and performance evaluation: An experimental study : an experimental study

Budgets are often simultaneously used for the conflicting purposes of planning and performance evaluation. While economic theory suggests that firms should use separate budgets for conflicting purposes this contrasts with existing evidence that firms rarely do so. We address two open questions related to these observations in an experiment. Specifically, we investigate how a planning task that is in conflict with the performance evaluation task affects behavior in budget negotiations and their outcomes. Additionally, we analyze whether a single budget can be effectively used for both purposes compared to two separate budgets. We develop theory to predict that adding a planning task that is in conflict with the superior���s performance evaluation task increases the subordinate���s cooperation in and after the negotiation of a performance evaluation budget. Moreover, we predict that subordinate cooperation increases even more when the superior is restricted to use a single budget for both purposes. Our results broadly support our hypotheses. Specifically, we find that when budgets are used for both planning and performance evaluation, this increases the subordinate���s budget proposals during the negotiation and his performance after the negotiation. These effects tend to be even larger when the superior is restricted to a single budget rather than separate budgets for planning and performance evaluation, particularly with respect to subordinate performance. In our experimental setting, the benefits of increased subordinate cooperation even more than offset the loss in flexibility from the superior���s restriction to a single budget. The results of this study add to the understanding of the interdependencies of conflicting budgeting purposes and contribute to explain why firms often use a single budget for multiple purposes.

Bedrock bedding, landsliding and erosional budgets in the Central European Alps

We explore the controls of the litho-tectonic architecture on the erosional flux in the 370-km2 Glogn basin (European Alps). In this basin, the bedding and schistosity of the bedrock dip parallel to the topographic slope on the NW valley flank, leading to a non-dip slope situation on the opposite SE valley side. While the dip slope condition has promoted the occurrence of landslides (e.g. the c. 30-km2 deep-seated Lumnezia landslide), the opposite non-dip slope side of the valley hosts >100-m-deeply incised tributary streams. 10Be concentrations of stream sediments yield catchment-averaged denudation rates that vary between 0.27 �� 0.03 and 2.19 �� 0.37 mm a���1, while the spatially averaged denudation rate of the entire basin is 1.99 �� 0.34 mm a���1. Our 10Be-based approach reveals that the Lumnezia landslide front contributes c. 30���65% of the entire sediment budget, although it covers <5% of the Glogn basin. This suggests a primary control of the bedrock bedding on erosion rates and processes.

Strategic Emergency department design: An approach to capacity planning in healthcare provision in overcrowded emergency rooms

Healthcare professionals and the public have increasing concerns about the ability of emergency departments to meet current demands. Increased demand for emergency services, mainly caused by a growing number of minor and moderate injuries has reached crisis proportions, especially in the United Kingdom. Numerous efforts have been made to explore the complex causes because it is becoming more and more important to provide adequate healthcare within tight budgets. Optimisation of patient pathways in the emergency department is therefore an important factor. This paper explores the possibilities offered by dynamic simulation tools to improve patient pathways using the emergency department of a busy university teaching hospital in Switzerland as an example.

Paleo erosion rates and climate shifts recorded by Quaternary cut-and-fill sequences in the Pisco valley, central Peru

Fluvial cut-and-fill sequences have frequently been reported from various sites on Earth. Nevertheless, the information about the past erosional regime and hydrological conditions have not yet been adequately deciphered from these archives. The Quaternary terrace sequences in the Pisco valley, located at ca. 13��S, offer a manifestation of an orbitally-driven cyclicity in terrace construction where phases of sediment accumulation have been related to the Minchin (48���36 ka) and Tauca (26���15 ka) lake level highstands on the Altiplano. Here, we present a 10Be-based sediment budget for the cut-and-fill terrace sequences in this valley to quantify the orbitally forced changes in precipitation and erosion. We find that the Minchin period was characterized by an erosional pulse along the Pacific coast where denudation rates reached values as high as 600��80 mm/ka600��80 mm/ka for a relatively short time span lasting a few thousands of years. This contrasts to the younger pluvial periods and the modern situation when 10Be-based sediment budgets register nearly zero erosion at the Pacific coast. We relate these contrasts to different erosional conditions between the modern and the Minchin time. First, the sediment budget infers a precipitation pattern that matches with the modern climate ca. 1000 km farther north, where highly erratic and extreme El Ni��o-related precipitation results in fast erosion and flooding along the coast. Second, the formation of a thick terrace sequence requires sufficient material on catchment hillslopes to be stripped off by erosion. This was most likely the case immediately before the start of the Minchin period, because this erosional epoch was preceded by a >50 ka-long time span with poorly erosive climate conditions, allowing for sufficient regolith to build up on the hillslopes. Finally, this study suggests a strong control of orbitally and ice sheet forced latitudinal shifts of the ITCZ on the erosional gradients and sediment production on the western escarpment of the Peruvian Andes at 13�� during the Minchin period.

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios �������� which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions �������� to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4���0.5�����C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8���1.0�����C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22���27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Introduction of a New Policy of no Nighttime Appendectomies: Impact on Appendiceal Perforation Rates and Postoperative Morbidity

Background Working hour limitations and tight health care budgets have posed significant challenges to emergency surgical services. Since 1 January 2010, surgical interventions at Berne University Hospital between 23:00 and 08:00 h have been restricted to patients with an expected serious adverse outcome if not operated on within 6 h. This study was designed to assess the safety of this new policy that restricts nighttime appendectomies (AEs). Methods The patients that underwent AE from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2011 (���2010-2011 group���) were compared retrospectively with patients that underwent AE before introduction of the new policy (1 January 2006���31 December 2009; ���2006-2009 group���). Results Overall, 390 patients were analyzed. There were 255 patients in the 2006���2009 group and 135 patients in the 2010���2011 group. Patients��� demographics did not differ statistically between the two study groups; however, 45.9 % of the 2006���2009 group and 18.5 % of the 2010���2011 group were operated between 23:00 and 08:00 h (p < 0.001). The rates of appendiceal perforations and surgical site infections did not differ statistically between the 2006���2009 group and the 2010���2011 group (20 vs. 18.5 %, p = 0.725 and 2 vs. 0 %, p = 0.102). Additionally, no difference was found for the hospital length of stay (3.9 �� 7.4 vs. 3.4 �� 6.0 days, p = 0.586). However, the proportion of patients with an in-hospital delay of >12 h was significantly greater in the 2010���2011 group than in the 2006���2009 group [55.6 vs. 43.5 %, p = 0.024, odds ratio (95 % confidence interval 1.62 (1.1���2.47)]. Conclusions Restricting AEs from 23:00 to 08:00 h does not increase the perforation rates and occurrence of clinical outcomes. Therefore, these results suggest that appendicitis may be managed safely in a semielective manner.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of paclitaxel-coated balloons for endovascular therapy of femoropopliteal arterial obstructions.

PURPOSE To explore the cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting balloon (DEB) angioplasty for the treatment of femoropopliteal arterial lesions, which has been shown to significantly lower the rates of target lesion revascularization (TLR) compared with standard balloon angioplasty (BA). METHODS A simplified decision-analytic model based on TLR rates reported in the literature was applied to baseline and follow-up costs associated with in-hospital patient treatment during 1 year of follow-up. Costs were expressed in Swiss Francs (sFr) and calculated per 100 patients treated. Budgets were analyzed in the context of current SwissDRG reimbursement figures and calculated from two different perspectives: a general budget on total treatment costs (third-party healthcare payer) as well as a budget focusing on the physician/facility provider perspective. RESULTS After 1 year, use of DEB was associated with substantially lower total inpatient treatment costs when compared with BA (sFr 861,916 vs. sFr 951,877) despite the need for a greater investment at baseline related to higher prices for DEBs. In the absence of dedicated reimbursement incentives, however, use of DEB was shown to be the financially less favorable treatment approach from the physician/facility provider perspective (12-month total earnings: sFr 179,238 vs. sFr 333,678). CONCLUSION Use of DEBs may be cost-effective through prevention of TLR at 1 year of follow-up. The introduction of dedicated financial incentives aimed at improving DEB reimbursements may help lower total healthcare costs.

More efficient aboveground nitrogen use in more diverse Central European forest canopies

We hypothesized that biodiversity improves ecosystem functioning and services such as nutrient cycling because of increased complementarity. We examined N canopy budgets of 27 Central European forests of varying dominant tree species, stand density, and tree and shrub species diversity (Shannon index) in three study regions by quantifying bulk and fine particulate dry deposition and dissolved below canopy N fluxes. Average regional canopy N retention ranged from 16% to 51%, because of differences in the N status of the ecosystems. Canopy N budgets of coniferous forests differed from deciduous forest which we attribute to differences in biogeochemical N cycling, tree functional traits and canopy surface area. The canopy budgets of N were related to the Shannon index which explained 14% of the variance of the canopy budgets of N, suggesting complementary aboveground N use of trees and diverse understorey vegetation. The relationship between plant diversity and canopy N retention varied among regional site conditions and forest types. Our results suggest that the traditional view of belowground complementarity of nutrient uptake by roots in diverse plant communities can be transferred to foliar uptake in forest canopies.

The global carbon budget 1959���2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002���2011), EFF was 8.3 �� 0.4 PgC yr���1, ELUC 1.0 �� 0.5 PgC yr���1, GATM 4.3 �� 0.1 PgC yr���1, SOCEAN 2.5 �� 0.5 PgC yr���1, and SLAND 2.6 �� 0.8 PgC yr���1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 �� 0.5 PgC yr���1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 �� 0.5 PgC yr���1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 �� 0.2 PgC yr���1, SOCEAN was 2.7 �� 0.5 PgC yr���1, and SLAND was 4.1 �� 0.9 PgC yr���1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002���2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Ni��a conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 �� 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9���3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ��1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean

A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr(-1) since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (similar to 0.4 Pg C yr(-1)) or sequestered in sediments (similar to 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of similar to 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store similar to 0.9 Pg C yr(-1) at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land-ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.