Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Helper response to experimentally manipulated predation risk in the cooperatively breeding cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher

Background We manipulated predation risk in a field experiment with the cooperatively breeding cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher by releasing no predator, a medium- or a large-sized fish predator inside underwater cages enclosing two to three natural groups. We assessed whether helpers changed their helping behaviour, and whether within-group conflict changed, depending on these treatments, testing three hypotheses: ‘pay-to-stay’ PS, ‘risk avoidance’ RA, or (future) reproductive benefits RB. We also assessed whether helper food intake was reduced under risk, because this might reduce investments in other behaviours to save energy. Methodology/Principal Findings Medium and large helpers fed less under predation risk. Despite this effect helpers invested more in territory defence, but not territory maintenance, under the risk of predation (supporting PS). Experimentally covering only the breeding shelter with sand induced more helper digging under predation risk compared to the control treatment (supporting PS). Aggression towards the introduced predator did not differ between the two predator treatments and increased with group member size and group size (supporting PS and RA). Large helpers increased their help ratio (helping effort/breeder aggression received, ‘punishment’ by the dominant pair in the group) in the predation treatments compared to the control treatment, suggesting they were more willing to PS. Medium helpers did not show such effects. Large helpers also showed a higher submission ratio (submission/ breeder aggression received) in all treatments, compared to the medium helpers (supporting PS). Conclusions/Significance We conclude that predation risk reduces helper food intake, but despite this effect, helpers were more willing to support the breeders, supporting PS. Effects of breeder punishment suggests that PS might be more important for large compared to the medium helpers. Evidence for RA was also detected. Finally, the results were inconsistent with RB.

Seasonality as a core business of phenology

The best characteristics of phenological observations are their description of seasons and seasonal patterns. Specific phenological phases are used to define the beginning and the end of seasons that form phenological calendars. Phenological observations more closely capture the integrated seasonal rhythm than statistically derived means or thresholds from climate elements. They only provide approximate indicators of seasonal changes and cannot replace visible or directly measurable phenomena. Including abiotic observations such as the timing of frost, thawing, icing, snow and fog even provides seasonality descriptions beyond the vegetation period. The length and position of seasons within the year is a foundation for an integrated description of seasonality presented as a phenological season diagram. Phenological observations are the indispensable basis for an integral description of a seasonal classification and seasonality. A well designed phenological diagram could offer a comprehensive picture of the rhythm and amplitude of seasons.

Phenology for tropoclimatological surveys and large-scale mapping

Biotic and abiotic phenological observations can be collected from continental to local spatial scale. Plant phenological observations may only be recorded wherever there is vegetation. Fog, snow and ice are available as phenological para-meters wherever they appear. The singularity of phenological observations is the possibility of spatial intensification to a microclimatic scale where the equipment of meteorological measurements is too expensive for intensive campaigning. The omnipresence of region-specific phenological parameters allows monitoring for a spatially much more detailed assessment of climate change than with weather data. We demonstrate this concept with phenological observations with the use of a special network in the Canton of Berne, Switzerland, with up to 600 observations sites (more than 1 to 10 km² of the inhabited area). Classic cartography, gridding, the integration into a Geographic Information System GIS and large-scale analysis are the steps to a detailed knowledge of topoclimatic conditions of a mountainous area. Examples of urban phenology provide other types of spatially detailed applications. Large potential in phenological mapping in future analyses lies in combining traditionally observed species-specific phenology with remotely sensed and modelled phenology that provide strong spatial information. This is a long history from cartographic intuition to algorithm-based representations of phenology.