A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

The causal effect of switching to second-line ART in programmes without access to routine viral load monitoring

We examined the effect of switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality in patients who experienced immunological failure in ART programmes without access to routine viral load monitoring in sub-Saharan Africa.

Quantifying the improvement in sepsis diagnosis, documentation, and coding: the marginal causal effect of year of hospitalization on sepsis diagnosis.

PURPOSE To quantify the coinciding improvement in the clinical diagnosis of sepsis, its documentation in the electronic health records, and subsequent medical coding of sepsis for billing purposes in recent years. METHODS We examined 98,267 hospitalizations in 66,208 patients who met systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria at a tertiary care center from 2008 to 2012. We used g-computation to estimate the causal effect of the year of hospitalization on receiving an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification discharge diagnosis code for sepsis by estimating changes in the probability of getting diagnosed and coded for sepsis during the study period. RESULTS When adjusted for demographics, Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index, blood culture frequency per hospitalization, and intensive care unit admission, the causal risk difference for receiving a discharge code for sepsis per 100 hospitalizations with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, had the hospitalization occurred in 2012, was estimated to be 3.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.8%-4.0%), 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3%-3.5%), 2.2% (95% CI, 2.1%-2.3%), and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.8%-1.1%) from 2008 to 2011, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Patients with similar characteristics and risk factors had a higher of probability of getting diagnosed, documented, and coded for sepsis in 2012 than in previous years, which contributed to an apparent increase in sepsis incidence.

How the Euro divides the union: the effect of economic adjustment on support for democracy in Europe

As often pointed out in the literature on the European debt crisis, the policy programme of austerity and internal devaluation imposed on countries in the Eurozone's periphery exhibits a lack of democratic legitimacy. This article analyses the consequences these developments have for democratic support at both the European and national levels. We show that through the policies of economic adjustment, a majority of citizens in crisis countries has become ‘detached’ from their democratic political system. By cutting loose the Eurozone's periphery from the rest of Europe in terms of democratic legitimacy, the Euro has divided the union, instead of uniting it as foreseen by its architects. Our results are based on aggregated Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 28 European Union (EU) member states between 2002 and 2014. We employ quantitative time-series cross-sectional regression analyses. Moreover, we estimate the causal effect of economic adjustment in a comparative case study of four cases using the synthetic control method.

Tenofovir or zidovudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy after stavudine failure in southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is debate over using tenofovir or zidovudine alongside lamivudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following stavudine failure. We analyzed outcomes in cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe METHODS: Patients aged ≥16 years who switched from a first-line regimen including stavudine to a ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based second-line regimen with lamivudine or emtricitabine and zidovudine or tenofovir in seven ART programs in southern Africa were included. We estimated the causal effect of receiving tenofovir or zidovudine on mortality and virological failure using Cox proportional hazards marginal structural models. Its parameters were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weights. Baseline characteristics were age, sex, calendar year and country. CD4 cell count, creatinine and hemoglobin levels were included as time-dependent confounders. RESULTS 1,256 patients on second-line ART, including 958 on tenofovir, were analyzed. Patients on tenofovir were more likely to have switched to second-line ART in recent years, spent more time on first-line ART (33 vs. 24 months) and had lower CD4 cell counts (172 vs. 341 cells/μl) at initiation of second-line ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing tenofovir with zidovudine was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.59-1.68) for virologic failure and 1.40 (0.57-3.41) for death. CONCLUSIONS We did not find any difference in treatment outcomes between patients on tenofovir or zidovudine; however, the precision of our estimates was limited. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to inform second-line ART strategies in resource-limited settings.

An exploratory study about the perception and justification of violence in Mixed Martial Arts and kickboxing athletes

THE INFLUENCE of combat sport practice on behaviour, attitude, personality and other factors was, and still remains, a research topic of great interest as well as conflicting points of view. Findings are as yet inconclusive since a direct or causal effect is difficult to establish and other factors external to the individual, such as the instructor’s coaching style, also need to be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the wide range of disciplines pertaining to the category combat sports differ from each other on a number of characteristics, such as the extent of physical contact or competition rules, and in fact, attempts have been made to distinguish between various sub-types (e.g. Trulson, 1986). A common distinction made is that between the traditional martial arts, which place emphasis on the art’s philosophy, its traditions and hierarchy (e.g. traditional karate, aikido) and the modern (or Western) combat sports (e.g. boxing, Mixed Martial Arts). An ongoing debate exists about the potential positive and/or negative influence of combat sport practice in comparison to other sport disciplines that do not include this element of fighting and direct aggression. On the one hand, combat sports have been presented by some researchers and sport practitioners as a means of promoting positive social and individual behavior, such as in Theeboom, De Knop and Wylleman’s (2008) evaluation of a martial arts Programme for socially disadvantaged youths in Belgium. Results revealed a positive effect of this project; however, it also highlighted the crucial role played by the instructors or leaders of such programmes. In another intervention using martial arts, Trulson (1986) reported a positive effect of a six month traditional martial art (Korean Tae Kwon Do) intervention with male juvenile delinquents including a reduction in aggressiveness and anxiety, thus confirming the positive influence of such an activity. Nevertheless, this effect was not observed in the other group participating in a modern Adaptation of this martial art led by the same instructor, where the philosophical aspect of this discipline was not emphasised. Moreover, an opposite effect was ascertained in this case where an increased tendency towards delinquency was reported. These results support the distinction between the various types of combat sports together with the way this sport is presented and taught by the instructor.

Clinical effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy for depression in routine care: A propensity score based comparison between randomized controlled trials and clinical practice

Background: The efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for the treatment of depressive disorders has been demonstrated in many randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study investigated whether for CBT similar effects can be expected under routine care conditions when the patients are comparable to those examined in RCTs. Method: N=574 CBT patients from an outpatient clinic were stepwise matched to the patients undergoing CBT in the National Institute of Mental Health Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program (TDCRP). First, the exclusion criteria of the RCT were applied to the naturalistic sample of the outpatient clinic. Second, propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust the remaining naturalistic sample on the basis of baseline covariate distributions. Matched samples were then compared regarding treatment effects using effect sizes, average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and recovery rates. Results: CBT in the adjusted naturalistic subsample was as effective as in the RCT. However, treatments lasted significantly longer under routine care conditions. Limitations: The samples included only a limited amount of common predictor variables and stemmed from different countries. There might be additional covariates, which could potentially further improve the matching between the samples. Conclusions: CBT for depression in clinical practice might be equally effective as manual-based treatments in RCTs when they are applied to comparable patients. The fact that similar effects under routine conditions were reached with more sessions, however, points to the potential to optimize treatments in clinical practice with respect to their efficiency.

Effect of volume loading with 1 liter intravenous infusions of 0.9% saline, 4% succinylated gelatine (Gelofusine) and 6% hydroxyethyl starch (Voluven) on blood volume and endocrine responses: a randomized, three-way crossover study in healthy volunteers

To study the changes in blood volume and hormones controlling sodium and water homeostasis after infusions of 0.9% saline, Gelofusine (4% succinylated gelatin in 0.7% saline, weight-average molecular weight 30 kD), and Voluven (6% hydroxyethyl starch in 0.9% saline, weight-average molecular weight 130 kD) in healthy volunteers.

Garlic extract induces intestinal P-glycoprotein, but exhibits no effect on intestinal and hepatic CYP3A4 in humans

Garlic extracts have been shown to decrease drug exposure for saquinavir, a P-glycoprotein and cytochrome P450 3A4 substrate. In order to explore the underlying mechanisms and to study the effects of garlic on pre-systemic drug elimination, healthy volunteers were administered garlic extract for 21 days. Prior to and at the end of this period, expression of duodenal P-glycoprotein and cytochrome P450 3A4 protein were assayed and normalized to villin, while hepatic cytochrome P450 3A4 function and simvastatin, pravastatin and saquinavir pharmacokinetics were also evaluated. Ingestion of garlic extract increased expression of duodenal P-glycoprotein to 131% (95% CI, 105-163%), without increasing the expression of cytochrome P450 3A4 which amounted to 87% (95% CI, 67-112%), relative to baseline in both cases. For the erythromycin breath test performed, the average result was 96% (95% CI, 83-112%). Ingestion of garlic extract had no effect on drug and metabolite AUCs following a single dose of simvastatin or pravastatin, although the average area under the plasma concentration curve (AUC) of saquinavir decreased to 85% (95% CI, 66-109%), and changes in intestinal P-glycoprotein expression negatively correlated with this change. In conclusion, garlic extract induces intestinal expression of P-glycoprotein independent of cytochrome P450 3A4 in human intestine and liver.

Is the allegiance effect an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences between treatments? a meta-analysis

Many meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies found a substantial association of researcher allegiance (RA) and relative treatment effects. Therefore, RA is regarded as a biasing factor in comparative outcome research (RA bias hypothesis). However, the RA bias hypothesis has been criticized as causality might be reversed. That is, RA might be a reflection of true efficacy differences between treatments (true efficacy hypothesis). Consequently, the RA-outcome association would not be indicative of bias but an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences. This meta-analysis tested the validity of the true efficacy hypothesis. This was done by controlling the RA-outcome association for true efficacy differences by restricting analysis to direct comparisons of treatments with equivalent efficacy. We included direct comparisons of different versions of trauma-focused therapy (TFT) in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). RA was measured from the research reports. Relative effect sizes for symptoms of PTSD were calculated. Random effects meta-regression was conducted. Twenty-nine comparisons of TFTs from 20 studies were identified. Initial heterogeneity among relative effect sizes was low. RA was a significant predictor of outcome and explained 12% of the variance in outcomes. The true efficacy hypothesis predicted the RA-outcome association to be zero; however, a substantial association was found. Thus, this study does not support the true efficacy hypothesis. Given findings from psychotherapy research and other fields that support a biasing influence of researcher preferences, RA should be regarded as a causal factor and conceptualized as a threat to the validity of conclusions from comparative outcome studies.

Influence of reported study design characteristics on intervention effect estimates from randomized, controlled trials

Published evidence suggests that aspects of trial design lead to biased intervention effect estimates, but findings from different studies are inconsistent. This study combined data from 7 meta-epidemiologic studies and removed overlaps to derive a final data set of 234 unique meta-analyses containing 1973 trials. Outcome measures were classified as "mortality," "other objective," "or subjective," and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate associations of trial characteristics with average bias and between-trial heterogeneity. Intervention effect estimates seemed to be exaggerated in trials with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) random-sequence generation (ratio of odds ratios, 0.89 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.82 to 0.96]) and with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) allocation concealment (ratio of odds ratios, 0.93 [CrI, 0.87 to 0.99]). Lack of or unclear double-blinding (vs. double-blinding) was associated with an average of 13% exaggeration of intervention effects (ratio of odds ratios, 0.87 [CrI, 0.79 to 0.96]), and between-trial heterogeneity was increased for such studies (SD increase in heterogeneity, 0.14 [CrI, 0.02 to 0.30]). For each characteristic, average bias and increases in between-trial heterogeneity were driven primarily by trials with subjective outcomes, with little evidence of bias in trials with objective and mortality outcomes. This study is limited by incomplete trial reporting, and findings may be confounded by other study design characteristics. Bias associated with study design characteristics may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates and increases in between-trial heterogeneity in trials reporting subjectively assessed outcomes.

The effect of efavirenz versus nevirapine-containing regimens on immunologic, virologic and clinical outcomes in a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE: To compare regimens consisting of either efavirenz or nevirapine and two or more nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) among HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive, and AIDS-free individuals with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective studies of HIV-infected individuals in Europe and the US included in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration. METHODS: Antiretroviral therapy-naive and AIDS-free individuals were followed from the time they started an NRTI, efavirenz or nevirapine, classified as following one or both types of regimens at baseline, and censored when they started an ineligible drug or at 6 months if their regimen was not yet complete. We estimated the 'intention-to-treat' effect for nevirapine versus efavirenz regimens on clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. Our models included baseline covariates and adjusted for potential bias introduced by censoring via inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: A total of 15 336 individuals initiated an efavirenz regimen (274 deaths, 774 AIDS-defining illnesses) and 8129 individuals initiated a nevirapine regimen (203 deaths, 441 AIDS-defining illnesses). The intention-to-treat hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] for nevirapine versus efavirenz regimens were 1.59 (1.27, 1.98) for death and 1.28 (1.09, 1.50) for AIDS-defining illness. Individuals on nevirapine regimens experienced a smaller 12-month increase in CD4 cell count by 11.49 cells/mul and were 52% more likely to have virologic failure at 12 months as those on efavirenz regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Our intention-to-treat estimates are consistent with a lower mortality, a lower incidence of AIDS-defining illness, a larger 12-month increase in CD4 cell count, and a smaller risk of virologic failure at 12 months for efavirenz compared with nevirapine.

Effect on infection resistance of a local antiseptic and antibiotic coating on osteosynthesis implants: an in vitro and in vivo study

The purpose of this study was to acquire information about the effect of an antibacterial and biodegradable poly-L-lactide (PLLA) coated titanium plate osteosynthesis on local infection resistance. For our in vitro and in vivo experiments, we used six-hole AO DC minifragment titanium plates. The implants were coated with biodegradable, semiamorphous PLLA (coating about 30 microm thick). This acted as a carrier substance to which either antibiotics or antiseptics were added. The antibiotic we applied was a combination of Rifampicin and fusidic acid; the antiseptic was a combination of Octenidin and Irgasan. This produced the following groups: Group I: six-hole AO DC minifragment titanium plate without PLLA; Group II: six-hole AO DC minifragment titanium plate with PLLA without antibiotics/antiseptics; Group III: six-hole AO DC minifragment titanium plate with PLLA + 3% Rifampicin and 7% fusidic acid; Group IV: six-hole AO DC minifragment titanium plate with PLLA + 2% Octenidin and 8% Irgasan. In vitro, we investigated the degradation and the release of the PLLA coating over a period of 6 weeks, the bactericidal efficacy of antibiotics/antiseptics after their release from the coating and the bacterial adhesion of Staphylococcus aureus to the implants. In vivo, we compared the infection rates in white New Zealand rabbits after titanium plate osteosynthesis of the tibia with or without antibacterial coating after local percutaneous bacterial inoculations at different concentrations (2 x 10(5)-2 x 10(8)): The plate, the contaminated soft tissues and the underlying bone were removed under sterile conditions after 28 days and quantitatively evaluated for bacterial growth. A stepwise experimental design with an "up-and-down" dosage technique was used to adjust the bacterial challenge in the area of the ID50 (50% infection dose). Statistical evaluation of the differences between the infection rates of both groups was performed using the two-sided Fisher exact test (p < 0.05). Over a period of 6 weeks, a continuous degradation of the PLLA coating of 13%, on average, was seen in vitro in 0.9% NaCl solution. The elution tests on titanium implants with antibiotic or antiseptic coatings produced average release values of 60% of the incorporated antibiotic or 62% of the incorporated antiseptic within the first 60 min. This was followed by a much slower, but nevertheless continuous, release of the incorporated antibiotic and antiseptic over days and weeks. At the end of the test period of 42 days, 20% of the incorporated antibiotic and 15% of the incorporated antiseptic had not yet been released from the coating. The antibacterial effect of the antibiotic/antiseptic is not lost by integrating it into the PLLA coating. The overall infection rate in the in vivo investigation was 50%. For Groups I and II the infection rate was both 83% (10 of 12 animals). In Groups III and IV with antibacterial coating, the infection rate was both 17% (2 of 12 animals). The ID50 in the antibacterial coated Groups III and IV was recorded as 1 x 10(8) CFU, whereas the ID50 values in the Groups I and II without antibacterial coating were a hundred times lower at 1 x 10(6) CFU, respectively. The difference between the groups with and without antibacterial coating was statistically significant (p = 0.033). Using an antibacterial biodegradable PLLA coating on titanium plates, a significant reduction of infection rate in an in vitro and in vivo investigation could be demonstrated. For the first time, to our knowledge, we were able to show, under standardized and reproducible conditions, that an antiseptic coating leads to the same reduction in infection rate as an antibiotic coating. Taking the problem of antibiotic-induced bacterial resistance into consideration, we thus regard the antiseptic coating, which shows the same level of effectiveness, as advantageous.

Effect of patient size on radiation dose for abdominal MDCT with automatic tube current modulation: phantom study

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate in a phantom study the effect of patient size on radiation dose for abdominal MDCT with automatic tube current modulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One or two 4-cm-thick circumferential layers of fat-equivalent material were added to the abdomen of an anthropomorphic phantom to simulate patients of three sizes: small (cross-sectional dimensions, 18 x 22 cm), average size (26 x 30 cm), and oversize (34 x 38 cm). Imaging was performed with a 64-MDCT scanner with combined z-axis and xy-axis tube current modulation according to two protocols: protocol A had a noise index of 12.5 H, and protocol B, 15.0 H. Radiation doses to three abdominal organs and the skin were assessed. Image noise also was measured. RESULTS: Despite increasing patient size, the image noise measured was similar for protocol A (range, 11.7-12.2 H) and protocol B (range, 13.9-14.8 H) (p > 0.05). With the two protocols, in comparison with the dose of the small patient, the abdominal organ doses of the average-sized patient and the oversized patient increased 161.5-190.6%and 426.9-528.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). The skin dose increased as much as 268.6% for the average-sized patient and 816.3% for the oversized patient compared with the small patient (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Oversized patients undergoing abdominal MDCT with tube current modulation receive significantly higher doses than do small patients. The noise index needs to be adjusted to the body habitus to ensure dose efficiency.

The effect of matrix bound parathyroid hormone on bone regeneration

INTRODUCTION: Autogenous bone is the most successful bone-grafting material; however, multiple disadvantages continue to drive developments of improved methods for bone regeneration. AIM: The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that an arginine-glycine-aspartic acid (RGD) modified polyethylene glycol-based matrix (PEG) containing covalently bound peptides of the parathyroid hormone (PTH(1-34)) enhances bone regeneration to a degree similar to autogenous bone. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six American foxhounds received a total of 48 cylindrical titanium implants placed in the mandible between the first premolar and the second molar. Five, respectively, 7 months following tooth extraction, implants were placed into the center of surgically created defects. This resulted in a circumferential bone defect simulating an alveolar defect with a circular gap of 1.5 mm. Four treatment modalities were randomly allocated to the four defects per side: (1) PEG-matrix containing 20 microg/ml of PTH(1-34), and 350 microg/ml cys-RGD peptide, (2) PEG alone, (3) autogenous bone and (4) empty defects. Histomorphometric analysis was performed 4 and 12 weeks after implantation. The area fraction of newly formed bone was determined within the former defect and the degree of bone-to-implant contact (BIC) was evaluated both in the defect region and in the apical region of the implant. For statistical analysis ANOVA and subsequent pairwise Student's t-test were applied. RESULTS: Healing was uneventful and all implants were histologically integrated. Histomorphometric analysis after 4 weeks showed an average area fraction of newly formed bone of 41.7+/-1.8% for matrix-PTH, 26.6+/-4.1% for PEG alone, 43.9+/-4.5% for autogenous bone, and 28.9+/-1.5% for empty defects. After 12 weeks, the respective values were 49.4+/-7.0% for matrix-PTH, 39.3+/-5.7% for PEG alone, 50.5+/-3.4% for autogenous bone and 38.7+/-1.9% for empty defects. Statistical analysis after 4 and 12 weeks revealed significantly more newly formed bone in the PTH(1-34) group compared with PEG alone or empty defects, whereas no difference could be detected against autogenous bone. Regarding BIC no significant difference was observed between the four treatment groups neither at 4 nor at 12 weeks. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that an RGD-modified PEG hydrogel containing PTH(1-34) is an effective matrix system to obtain bone regeneration.