Choosing the path of austerity: how parties and policy coalitions influence welfare state retrenchment in periods of fiscal consolidation

What are the conditions under which some austerity programmes rely on substantial cuts to social spending? More specifically, do the partisan complexion and the type of government condition the extent to which austerity policies imply welfare state retrenchment? This article demonstrates that large budget consolidations tend to be associated with welfare state retrenchment. The findings support a partisan and a politico-institutionalist argument: (i) in periods of fiscal consolidation, welfare state retrenchment tends to be more pronounced under left-wing governments; (ii) since welfare state retrenchment is electorally and politically risky, it also tends to be more pronounced when pursued by a broad pro-reform coalition government. Therefore, the article shows that during budget consolidations implemented by left-wing broad coalition governments, welfare state retrenchment is greatest. Using long-run multipliers from autoregressive distributed lag models on 17 OECD countries during the 1982–2009 period, substantial support is found for these expectations.

Ethnic Politics, Regime Support and Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe

Ethnicity and ethnic parties have often been portrayed as a threat to political stability. There is also no shortage of conflicts with an ethnic flavor. Yet, this book challenges the notion that the organization of politics in heterogeneous societies should necessarily overcome ethnicity. Rather, descriptive representation of ethnic groups arguably has potential to increase regime support and reduce conflict. The book studies partisan-descriptive representation of up to 130 ethnic groups in central and eastern European democracies. Ethnic minority parties are found to only run and succeed if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. Conditional on gender and strategies of representation, ethnic representation increases satisfaction with democracy among the minority population. While protest rises given moderate levels of representation, it is reduced once ethnic groups have access to executives. In conclusion, a proportional vision of power-sharing between ethnic groups receives some qualified empirical support.