On the detection of dynamic responses in a drought-perturbed tropical rainforest in Borneo

The dynamics of aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forest in Borneo is influenced by perturbation from droughts. These events might be increasing in frequency and intensity in the future. This paper describes drought-affected dynamics between 1986 and 2001 in Sabah, Malaysia, and considers how it is possible, reliably and accurately, to measure both coarse- and fine-scale responses of the forest. Some fundamental concerns about methodology and data analysis emerge. In two plots forming 8 ha, mortality, recruitment, and stem growth rates of trees ≥10 cm gbh (girth at breast height) were measured in a ‘pre-drought’ period (1986–1996), and in a period (1996–2001) including the 1997–1998 ENSO-drought. For 2.56 ha of subplots, mortality and growth rates of small trees (10–<50 cm gbh) were found also for two sub-periods (1996–1999, 1999–2001). A total of c. 19 K trees were recorded. Mortality rate increased by 25% while both recruitment and relative growth rates increased by 12% for all trees at the coarse scale. For small trees, at the fine scale, mortality increased by 6% and 9% from pre-drought to drought and on to ‘post-drought’ sub-periods. Relative growth rates correspondingly decreased by 38% and increased by 98%. Tree size and topography interacted in a complex manner with between-plot differences. The forest appears to have been sustained by off-setting elevated tree mortality by highly resilient stem growth. This last is seen as the key integrating tree variable which links the external driver (drought causing water stress) and population dynamics recorded as mortality and recruitment. Suitably sound measurements of stem girth, leading to valid growth rates, are needed to understand and model tree dynamic responses to perturbations. The proportion of sound data, however, is in part determined by the drought itself.

Resistance of a lowland rain forest to increasing drought intensity in Sabah, Borneo

Occasional strong droughts are an important feature of the climatic environment of tropical rain forest in much of Borneo. This paper compares the response of a lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum, Sabah, in a period of low (LDI) and a period of high (HDI) drought intensity (1986-96, 9.98 y;1996-99, 2.62 y). Mean annual drought intensity was two-fold higher in the HDI than LDI period (1997 v. 976 mm), and each period had one moderately strong main drought (viz. 1992, 1998). Mortality of `all' trees greater than or equal to 10 cm gbh (girth at breast height) and stem growth rates of `small' trees 10less than or equal to50 cm gbh were measured in sixteen 0.16-ha subplots (half on ridge, half on lower slope sites) within two 4-ha plots. These 10-50-cm trees were composed largely of true understorey species. A new procedure was developed to correct for the effect of differences in length of census interval when comparing tree mortality rates. Mortality rates of small trees declined slightly but not significantly between the LDI and HDI periods (1.53 to 1.48% y(-1)): mortality of all trees showed a similar pattern. Relative growth rates declined significantly by 23% from LDI to HDI periods (11.1 to 8.6 mm m(-1) y(-1)): for absolute growth rates the decrease was 28% (2.45 to 1.77 mm y(-1)). Neither mortality nor growth rates were significantly influenced by topography. For small trees, across subplots, absolute growth rate was positively correlated in the LDI period, but negatively correlated in the HDI period, with mortality rate. There was no consistent pattern in the responses among the 19 most abundant species (n greater than or equal to 50 trees) which included a proposed drought-tolerant guild. In terms of tree survival, the forest at Danum was resistant to increasing drought intensity, but showed decreased stem growth attributable to increasing water stress.

Plurality of tree species responses to drought perturbation in Bornean tropical rain forest

Drought perturbation driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal stochastic variable determining the dynamics of lowland rain forest in S.E. Asia. Mortality, recruitment and stem growth rates at Danum in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo) were recorded in two 4-ha plots (trees ≥ 10 cm gbh) for two periods, 1986–1996 and 1996–2001. Mortality and growth were also recorded in a sample of subplots for small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) in two sub-periods, 1996–1999 and 1999–2001. Dynamics variables were employed to build indices of drought response for each of the 34 most abundant plot-level species (22 at the subplot level), these being interval-weighted percentage changes between periods and sub-periods. A significant yet complex effect of the strong 1997/1998 drought at the forest community level was shown by randomization procedures followed by multiple hypothesis testing. Despite a general resistance of the forest to drought, large and significant differences in short-term responses were apparent for several species. Using a diagrammatic form of stability analysis, different species showed immediate or lagged effects, high or low degrees of resilience or even oscillatory dynamics. In the context of the local topographic gradient, species’ responses define the newly termed perturbation response niche. The largest responses, particularly for recruitment and growth, were among the small trees, many of which are members of understorey taxa. The results bring with them a novel approach to understanding community dynamics: the kaleidoscopic complexity of idiosyncratic responses to stochastic perturbations suggests that plurality, rather than neutrality, of responses may be essential to understanding these tropical forests. The basis to the various responses lies with the mechanisms of tree-soil water relations which are physiologically predictable: the timing and intensity of the next drought, however, is not. To date, environmental stochasticity has been insufficiently incorporated into models of tropical forest dynamics, a step that might considerably improve the reality of theories about these globally important ecosystems.

Secondary succession and dipterocarp recruitment in Bornean rain forest after logging

To understand succession in dipterocarp rain forest after logging, the structure, species composition and dynamics of primary (PF) and secondary (SF) forest at Danum were compared. In 10 replicate 0.16-ha plots per forest type trees >= 10 cm gbh (3.2 cm dbh) were measured in 1995 and 2001. The SF had been logged in 1988, which allowed successional change to be recorded at 8 and 13 years. In 2001, saplings (1.0-3.1 cm dbh) were measured in nested quadrats. The forest types were similar in mean radiation at 2 m height, and in density, basal area and species number of all trees. Among small (10 <= 31.4) and large ( >= 31.4 cm gbh) trees, in both 1995 and 2001, there were 10- and 3-fold more dipterocarps in SF than PF respectively; and averaging over the two dates, there were correspondingly ca. 10- and 18-fold more pioneers. Mortality was ca. 60% higher in SF than PF, largely due to a seven-fold difference for pioneers: for dipterocarps there was little difference. Recruitment was similar in PF and SE Stem growth rates were 37% higher in SF than PF for all trees, although dipterocarps showed the opposite trend. Among saplings, dipterocarps dominated SF with a 10-fold higher density than in PF. For dipterocarps, the light (LH) and medium-heavy (MHH) canopy hardwoods, and the shade-tolerant, smaller-stature other (OTH) species (e.g. Hopea and Vatica) were in the ratios ca. 40:15:45 in SF and 85: < 1:15 in PF. LHs had higher mortality than OTHs in SE In PF ca. 80% of the saplings were LH: in SF ca. 70% were OTH. The predominance of OTHs in SF is explained by the logging of primary rain forest which was in a likely late stage of recovery from natural disturbance, plus the continuing shaded conditions in the understorey promoted by dense pioneer vegetation. At 13 years after logging succession appeared to be inhibited: LHs were being suppressed but MHHs and OTHs persisted. Succession in lowland dipterocarp, rain forests may therefore depend on the successional state of the primary forest when it is logged. A review of logged versus unlogged studies in Borneo highlights the need for more detailed ecological comparisons.

Glacial–interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: A comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquide vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O(‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glaciale interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 e 9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquide vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion d18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion d18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glaciale interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4-5 C°. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

Neighbourhood abundance and small-tree survival in a lowland Bornean rainforest

Conspecific effects of neighbours on small-tree survival may have a role in tree population dynamics and community composition of tropical forests. This notion was tested with data from two 4-ha plots in lowland forest at Danum, Sabah (Borneo), for a 21-year interval (censuses at 1986, 1996, 2001, 2007). Species with ≥45 focal trees 10 to <100 cm stem girth per plot in 1986 were selected. Logistic regressions fitted mean focal tree size and mean inverse-distance-weighted basal area abundance of neighbours (within 20 m), for the periods over which each focus tree was alive. Coefficients of variation of neighbourhood basal area abundance, both spatially and temporally, quantified the changing environment of each focus tree. Fits were critically and individually evaluated, with corrections for spatial autocorrelation. Conspecific effects at Danum was generally very weak or non-existent: species’ mortality rates varied also across plots. The main reasons appear to be that (1) species were not dense enough to interact despite frequent although weak spatial aggregation, and their neighbourhoods were highly differing in species composition; and (2) these neighbourhoods were highly variable temporally, meaning that focus trees experienced stochastically fluctuating neighbourhood environments. Only one species, Dimorphocalyx muricatus, showed strong conspecific effects (varying between plots) which can be explained by its distinct ecology. This understorey species is highly aggregated on ridges and is drought-tolerant. That this functionally and habitat-specialized species, has implied intraspecific density-dependent feedback in its dynamics is a remarkable indication of the overall processes maintaining stability of the Danum forest.

Primary lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia. Species composition and patterns in the understorey

The spatial distributions of species of tree ≥10 cm gbh were examined in two 4 ha plots and related to the local variation in topography and soil chemistry. The plots were similar in their species composition, particularly in terms of the densities of small trees, and they showed very similar edaphic characteristics. Size class distributions varied little within and between plots. Ordination of 0.25 ha subplots highlighted parallel gradients in the vegetation of both plots when the densities of trees ≥10 cm gbh were considered. Focusing on understorey trees in the 10-<50 cm gbh class at the 0.04 ha subplot scale showed a similar vegetation gradient in both plots closely associated with change from lower slope to ridge. No relationship with soil chemistry was found. On the ridges a special group of understorey species formed clumps and these species contributed importantly to the ordinations. Borneo has a regional history of occasionally severe droughts. It is suggested here that the observed patterns in the understorey are due to differential responses to low soil water supply, the ridges probably tending to dryness more than the lower slopes. Within the large and diverse family Euphorbiaceae, which dominates the understorey at Danum, there may be ecophysiological groupings of species. The long-term effects of disturbance interacting with local edaphic factors on forest structure and composition are discussed.

Primary forest dynamics in lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia, and the role of the understorey

Changes in species composition in two 4–ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986 to 1996) for trees greater than or equal to 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower–slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi–stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade–off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance–recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade–off in shade–tolerance versus drought–tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two–storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorey–overstorey species’ ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.

The ecoclimatology of Danum, Sabah, in the context of the world's rainforest regions, with particular reference to dry periods and their impact

Climatic records for Danum for 1985 to 1998, elsewhere in Sabah since 1879, and long monthly rainfall series from other rainforest locations are used to place the climate, and particularly the dry period climatology, of Danum into a world rainforest context. The magnitude frequency and seasonality of dry periods are shown to vary greatly within the world's rainforest zone. The climate of Danum, which is aseasonal but subject, as in 1997 to 1998, to occasional drought, is intermediate between less drought–prone north–western Borneo and the more drought–prone east coast. Changes through time in drought magnitude frequency in Sabah and rainforest locations elsewhere in South–East Asia and in the Neotropics are compared. The 1997 to 1998 ENSO–related drought event in Sabah is placed into a historical context. The effects of drought on tree growth and mortality in the tropics are assessed and a model relating intensity and frequency of drought disturbance to forest structure and composition is discussed.