Noisy kriging-based optimization methods: A unified implementation within the DiceOptim package

Kriging-based optimization relying on noisy evaluations of complex systems has recently motivated contributions from various research communities. Five strategies have been implemented in the DiceOptim package. The corresponding functions constitute a user-friendly tool for solving expensive noisy optimization problems in a sequential framework, while offering some flexibility for advanced users. Besides, the implementation is done in a unified environment, making this package a useful device for studying the relative performances of existing approaches depending on the experimental setup. An overview of the package structure and interface is provided, as well as a description of the strategies and some insight about the implementation challenges and the proposed solutions. The strategies are compared to some existing optimization packages on analytical test functions and show promising performances.

The accuracy of self-reported medical history: A preliminary analysis of the promise of internet-based research in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Internet-based surveys provide a potentially important tool for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) research. The advantages include low cost, large numbers of participants, rapid study completion and less extensive infrastructure than traditional methods. The aim was to determine the accuracy of patient self-reporting in internet-based IBD research and identify predictors of greater reliability. METHODS: 197 patients from a tertiary care center answered an online survey concerning personal medical history and an evaluation of disease specific knowledge. Self-reported medical details were compared with data abstracted from medical records. Agreement was assessed by kappa (κ) statistics. RESULTS: Participants responded correctly with excellent agreement (κ=0.96-0.97) on subtype of IBD and history of surgery. The agreement was also excellent for colectomy (κ=0.88) and small bowel resection (κ=0.91), moderate for abscesses and fistulas (κ=0.60 and 0.63), but poor regarding partial colectomy (κ=0.39). Time since last colonoscopy was self-reported with better agreement (κ=0.84) than disease activity. For disease location/extent, moderate agreements at κ=69% and 64% were observed for patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, respectively. Subjects who scored higher than the average in the IBD knowledge assessment were significantly more accurate about disease location than their complementary group (74% vs. 59%, p=0.02). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that IBD patients accurately report their medical history regarding type of disease and surgical procedures. More detailed medical information is less reliably reported. Disease knowledge assessment may help in identifying the most accurate individuals and could therefore serve as validity criteria. Internet-based surveys are feasible with high reliability about basic disease features only. However, the participants in this study were engaged at a tertiary center, which potentially leads to a bias and compromises generalization to an unfiltered patient group.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

The implementation of DRG-based hospital reimbursement in Switzerland: A population-based perspective

Background Switzerland introduces a DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups) based system for hospital financing in 2012 in order to increase efficiency and transparency of Swiss health care. DRG-based hospital reimbursement is not simultaneously realized in all Swiss cantons and several cantons already implemented DRG-based financing irrespective of the national agenda, a setting that provides an opportunity to compare the situation in different cantons. Effects of introducing DRGs anticipated for providers and insurers are relatively well known but it remains less clear what effects DRGs will have on served populations. The objective of the study is therefore to analyze differences of volume and major quality indicators of care between areas with or without DRG-based hospital reimbursement from a population based perspective. Methods Small area analysis of all hospitalizations in acute care hospitals and of all consultations reimbursed by mandatory basic health insurance for physicians in own practice during 2003-2007. Results The results show fewer hospitalizations and a relocation of resources to outpatient care in areas with DRG reimbursement. Overall burden of disease expressed as per capita DRG cost weights was almost identical between the two types of hospital reimbursement and no distinct temporal differences were detected in this respect. But the results show considerably higher 90-day rehospitalization rates in DRG areas. Conclusion The study provides evidence of both desired and harmful effects related to the implementation of DRGs. Systematic monitoring of outcomes and quality of care are therefore essential elements to maintain in the Swiss health system after DRG's are implemented on a nationwide basis in 2012.

Sexual health of ethnic minority MSM in Britain (MESH project): design and methods

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain the group most at risk of acquiring HIV infection in Britain. HIV prevalence appears to vary widely between MSM from different ethnic minority groups in this country for reasons that are not fully understood. The aim of the MESH project was to examine in detail the sexual health of ethnic minority MSM living in Britain. Methods/Design The main objectives of the MESH project were to explore among ethnic minority MSM living in Britain: (i) sexual risk behaviour and HIV prevalence; (ii) their experience of stigma and discrimination; (iii) disclosure of sexuality; (iv) use of, and satisfaction with sexual health services; (v) the extent to which sexual health services (for treatment and prevention) are aware of the needs of ethnic minority MSM. The research was conducted between 2006 and 2008 in four national samples: (i) ethnic minority MSM living in Britain; (ii) a comparison group of white British MSM living in Britain; (iii) NHS sexual health clinic staff in 15 British towns and cities with significant ethnic minority communities and; (iv) sexual health promotion/HIV prevention service providers. We also recruited men from two "key migrant" groups living in Britain: MSM born in Central or Eastern Europe and MSM born in Central or South America. Internet-based quantitative and qualitative research methods were used. Ethnic minority MSM were recruited through advertisements on websites, in community venues, via informal networks and in sexual health clinics. White and "key migrant" MSM were recruited mostly through Gaydar, one of the most popular dating sites used by gay men in Britain. MSM who agreed to take part completed a questionnaire online. Ethnic minority MSM who completed the online questionnaire were asked if they would be willing to take part in an online qualitative interview using email. Service providers were identified through the British Association of Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH) and the Terrence Higgins Trust (THT) CHAPS partnerships. Staff who agreed to take part were asked to complete a questionnaire online. The online survey was completed by 1241 ethnic minority MSM, 416 men born in South and Central America or Central and Eastern Europe, and 13,717 white British MSM; 67 ethnic minority MSM took part in the online qualitative interview. In addition 364 people working in sexual health clinics and 124 health promotion workers from around Britain completed an online questionnaire. Discussion The findings from this study will improve our understanding of the sexual health and needs of ethnic minority MSM in Britain.

The COLOSS BEEBOOK Volume I, Standard methods for Apis mellifera research: Introduction

The COLOSS BEEBOOK is a practical manual compiling standard methods in all fields of research on the western honey bee, Apis mellifera. The COLOSS network was founded in 2008 as a consequence of the heavy and frequent losses of managed honey bee colonies experienced in many regions of the world (Neumann and Carreck, 2010). As many of the world’s honey bee research teams began to address the problem, it soon became obvious that a lack of standardized research methods was seriously hindering scientists’ ability to harmonize and compare the data on colony losses obtained internationally. In its second year of activity, during a COLOSS meeting held in Bern, Switzerland, the idea of a manual of standardized honey bee research methods emerged. The manual, to be called the COLOSS BEEBOOK, was inspired by publications with similar purposes for fruit fly research (Lindsley and Grell, 1968; Ashburner 1989; Roberts, 1998; Greenspan, 2004).

The COLOSS BEEBOOK Volume II, Standard methods for Apis mellifera pest and pathogen research: Introduction

The COLOSS BEEBOOK is a practical manual compiling standard methods in all fields of research on the western honey bee, Apis mellifera. The COLOSS network was founded in 2008 as a consequence of the heavy and frequent losses of managed honey bee colonies experienced in many regions of the world (Neumann and Carreck, 2010). As many of the world’s honey bee research teams began to address the problem, it soon became obvious that a lack of standardized research methods was seriously hindering scientists’ ability to harmonize and compare the data on colony losses obtained internationally. In its second year of activity, during a COLOSS meeting held in Bern, Switzerland, the idea of a manual of standardized honey bee research methods emerged. The manual, to be called the COLOSS BEEBOOK, was inspired by publications with similar purposes for fruit fly research (Lindsley and Grell, 1968; Ashburner, 1989; Roberts, 1998; Greenspan, 2004).

Norms on the gender perception of role nouns in Czech, English, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, and Slovak

We collected norms on the gender stereotypicality of an extensive list of role nouns in Czech, English, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, and Slovak, to be used as a basis for the selection of stimulus materials in future studies. We present a Web-based tool (available at https://www.unifr.ch/lcg/) that we developed to collect these norms and that we expect to be useful for other researchers, as well. In essence, we provide (a) gender stereotypicality norms across a number of languages and (b) a tool to facilitate cross-language as well as cross-cultural comparisons when researchers are interested in the investigation of the impact of stereotypicality on the processing of role nouns.

Learning and emotion - perspectives for theory and research

There is growing interest in and knowledge about the interplay of learning and emotion. However, the different approaches and empirical studies correspond to each other only to a low extent. To prevent this research field from increasing fragmentation, a shared basis of theory and research is needed. The presentation aims at giving an overview of the state of the art, developing a general framework for theory and research, and outlining crucial topics for future theory and research. The presentation focuses on the influence of emotions on learning. First, theories about the impact of emotions on learning are introduced. Second, the importance of these theories for school learning are discussed. Third, empirical evidence resulting from school-based research about the role of emotions for learning is presented. Finally, further research demands are stressed.

A Research Roadmap for Complementary and Alternative Medicine – What We Need to Know by 2020

Background: The CAMbrella coordination action was funded within the Framework Programme 7. Its aim is to provide a research roadmap for clinical and epidemiological research for complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) that is appropriate for the health needs of European citizens and acceptable to their national research institutes and healthcare providers in both public and private sectors. One major issue in the European research agenda is the demographic change and its impact on health care. Our vision for 2020 is that there is an evidence base that enables European citizens to make informed decisions about CAM, both positive and negative. This roadmap proposes a strategic research agenda for the field of CAM designed to address future European health care challenges. This roadmap is based on the results of CAMbrella’s several work packages, literature reviews and expert discussions including a consensus meeting. Methods: We first conducted a systematic literature review on key issues in clinical and epidemiological research in CAM to identify the general concepts, methods and the strengths and weaknesses of current CAM research. These findings were discussed in a workshop (Castellaro, Italy, September 7–9th 2011) with international CAM experts and strategic and methodological recommendations were defined in order to improve the rigor and relevance of CAM research. These recommendations provide the basis for the research roadmap, which was subsequently discussed in a consensus conference (Järna, Sweden, May 9–11th 2012) with all CAMbrella members and the CAMbrella advisory board. The roadmap was revised after this discussion in CAMbrella Work Package (WP) 7 and finally approved by CAMbrella’s scientific steering committee on September 26th 2012. Results: Our main findings show that CAM is very heterogenous in terms of definitions and legal regulations between the European countries. In addition, citizens’ needs and attitudes towards CAM as well as the use and provision of CAM differ significantly between countries. In terms of research methodology, there was consensus that CAM researchers should make use of all the commonly accepted scientific research methods and employ those with utmost diligence combined in a mixed methods framework. Conclusions: We propose 6 core areas of research that should be investigated to achieve a robust knowledge base and to allow stakeholders to make informed decisions. These are: Research into the prevalence of CAM in Europe: Reviews show that we do not know enough about the circumstances in which CAM is used by Europeans. To enable a common European strategic approach, a clear picture of current use is of the utmost importance. Research into differences regarding citizens’ attitudes and needs towards CAM: Citizens are the driver for CAM utilization. Their needs and views on CAM are a key priority, and their interests must be investigated and addressed in future CAM research. Research into safety of CAM: Safety is a key issue for European citizens. CAM is considered safe, but reliable data is scarce although urgently needed in order to assess the risk and cost-benefit ratio of CAM. Research into the comparative effectiveness of CAM: Everybody needs to know in what situation CAM is a reasonable choice. Therefore, we recommend a clear emphasis on concurrent evaluation of the overall effectiveness of CAM as an additional or alternative treatment strategy in real-world settings. Research into effects of context and meaning: The impact of effects of context and meaning on the outcome of CAM treatments must be investigated; it is likely that they are significant. Research into different models of CAM health care integration: There are different models of CAM being integrated into conventional medicine throughout Europe, each with their respective strengths and limitations. These models should be described and concurrently evaluated; innovative models of CAM provision in health care systems should be one focus for CAM research. We also propose a methodological framework for CAM research. We consider that a framework of mixed methodological approaches is likely to yield the most useful information. In this model, all available research strategies including comparative effectiveness research utilising quantitative and qualitative methods should be considered to enable us to secure the greatest density of knowledge possible. Stakeholders, such as citizens, patients and providers, should be involved in every stage of developing the specific and relevant research questions, study design and the assurance of real-world relevance for the research. Furthermore, structural and sufficient financial support for research into CAM is needed to strengthen CAM research capacity if we wish to understand why it remains so popular within the EU. In order to consider employing CAM as part of the solution to the health care, health creation and self-care challenges we face by 2020, it is vital to obtain a robust picture of CAM use and reliable information about its cost, safety and effectiveness in real-world settings. We need to consider the availability, accessibility and affordability of CAM. We need to engage in research excellence and utilise comparative effectiveness approaches and mixed methods to obtain this data. Our recommendations are both strategic and methodological. They are presented for the consideration of researchers and funders while being designed to answer the important and implicit questions posed by EU citizens currently using CAM in apparently increasing numbers. We propose that the EU actively supports an EUwide strategic approach that facilitates the development of CAM research. This could be achieved in the first instance through funding a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to foster systematic communication between EU governments, public, charitable and industry funders as well as researchers, citizens and other stakeholders. The aim of this office would be to coordinate research strategy developments and research funding opportunities, as well as to document and disseminate international research activities in this field. With the aim to develop sustainability as second step, a European Centre for CAM should be established that takes over the monitoring and further development of a coordinated research strategy for CAM, as well as it should have funds that can be awarded to foster high quality and robust independent research with a focus on citizens health needs and pan-European collaboration. We wish to establish a solid funding for CAM research to adequately inform health care and health creation decision-making throughout the EU. This centre would ensure that our vision of a common, strategic and scientifically rigorous approach to CAM research becomes our legacy and Europe’s reality. We are confident that our recommendations will serve these essential goals for EU citizens.

Symptom-based subtypes of depression and their psychosocial correlates: A person-centered approach focusing on the influence of sex

BACKGROUND: Reducing the complexity of major depressive disorder by symptom-based subtypes constitutes the basis of more specific treatments. To date, few studies have empirically derived symptom subtypes separated by sex, although the impact of sex has been widely accepted in depression research. METHODS: The community-based sample included 373 males and 443 females from the Zurich Program for Sustainable Development of Mental Health Services (ZInEP) manifesting depressive symptoms in the past 12 months. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was performed separately by sex to extract sex-related depression subtypes. The subtypes were characterized by psychosocial characteristics. RESULTS: Three similar subtypes were found in both sexes: a severe typical subtype (males: 22.8%; females: 35.7%), a severe atypical subtype (males: 17.4%; females: 22.6%), and a moderate subtype (males: 25.2%; females: 41.8%). In males, two additional subgroups were identified: a severe irritable/angry-rejection sensitive (IARS) subtype (30%) comprising the largest group, and a small psychomotor retarded subtype (4%). Males belonging to the severe typical subtype exhibited the lowest masculine gender role orientation, while females of the typical subtype showed more anxiety disorders. The severe atypical subtype was associated with eating disorders in both sexes and with alcohol/drug abuse/dependence in females. In contrast, alcohol/drug abuse/dependence was associated with the severe IARS subtype in males. LIMITATIONS:The study had a cross-sectional design, allowing for no causal inferences. CONCLUSIONS:This study contributes to a better understanding of sex-related depression subtypes, which can be well distinguished on the basis of symptom profiles. This provides the base for future research investigating the etiopathogenesis and effective treatment of the heterogeneous depression disorder.