Oestradiol enhances plasma growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-I concentrations and increased the expression of their receptors mRNAs in the liver of ovariectomized cows

Many metabolic hormones, growth hormone (GH), insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and insulin affect ovarian functions. However, whether ovarian steroid hormones affect metabolic hormones in cattle remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the effect of sex steroids on the plasma profiles of GH, IGF-I and insulin and their receptors in the liver and adipose tissues of dairy cows. Ovariectomized cows (n = 14) were randomly divided into four groups: control group (n = 3) was treated with saline on Day 0; oestradiol (E2) group (n = 3), with saline and 1 mg oestradiol benzoate (EB) on Day 0 and 5, respectively; progesterone (P4) group (n = 4) with two CIDRs (Pfizer Inc., Tokyo, Japan) from Day 0; and E2 + P4 group (n = 4) with two CIDRs on Day 0 that were removed on Day 6 and were immediately injected with 1 mg EB. The animals were euthanized after the experiment, and liver and adipose tissues samples were quantitatively analysed using real-time PCR for the expression of mRNA for the GH (GHR), IGF-I (IGFR-I) and insulin (IR) receptor mRNAs. Oestradiol benzoate significantly increased the number of peaks (p < 0.05), pulse amplitude (p < 0.05) and area under the curve (AUC; p < 0.01) for plasma GH; moreover, it increased plasma IGF-I concentration (p < 0.05), but it had no effect on the plasma insulin profile. P4 significantly decreased the AUC (p < 0.01), compared with the control group, whereas it did not affect the number of peaks and the amplitude of GH pulses. P4 + E2 did not affect the GH pulse profile. E2 increased the mRNA expression of GHR, IGFR-I and IR in the liver (p < 0.05), whereas both P4 and E2 + P4 did not change their expressions. Our results provide evidence that the metabolic and reproductive endocrine axes may regulate each other to ensure optimal reproductive and metabolic function.

An in vitro study on spontaneous myometrial contractility in the mare during estrus and diestrus

Uterine smooth muscle specimens were collected from euthanatized mares in estrus and diestrus. Longitudinal and circular specimens were mounted in organ baths and the signals transcribed to a Grass polygraph. After equilibration time and 2 g preload, their physiologic isometric contractility was recorded for a continuous 2.0 h. Area under the curve, frequency and time occupied by contractions were studied. Differences between cycle phases, between muscle layers, and over the recorded time periods were statistically evaluated using linear mixed-effect models. In the mare, physiologic contractility of the uterus decreased significantly over time for all variables evaluated (time as covariate on a continuous scale). For area under the curve, there was a significant effect of muscle layer (longitudinal > circular). For frequency, higher values were recorded in estrus for circular smooth muscle layer, whereas higher values were seen in longitudinal smooth muscle layers during diestrus. In longitudinal layer and in diestrus, more time was occupied by contractions than in circular layer, and in estrus. This study is describing physiologic myometrial motility in the organ bath depending on cycle phase.

The effect of increased lipid intake on hormonal responses during aerobic exercise in endurance-trained men

In view of the growing health problem associated with obesity, clarification of the regulation of energy homeostasis is important. Peripheral signals, such as ghrelin and leptin, have been shown to influence energy homeostasis. Nutrients and physical exercise, in turn, influence hormone levels. Data on the hormonal response to physical exercise (standardized negative energy balance) after high-fat (HF) or low-fat (LF) diet with identical carbohydrate intake are currently not available. The aim of the study was to investigate whether a short-term dietary intervention with HF and LF affects ghrelin and leptin levels and their modulators, GH, insulin and cortisol, before and during aerobic exercise. Eleven healthy, endurance-trained male athletes (W(max) 365 +/- 29 W) were investigated twice in a randomized crossover design following two types of diet: 1. LF - 0.5 g fat/kg body weight (BW) per day for 2.5 days; 2. HF - 0.5 g fat/kg BW per day for 1 day followed by 3.5 g fat/kg BW per day for 1.5 days. After a standardized carbohydrate snack in the morning, metabolites and hormones (GH, ghrelin, leptin, insulin and cortisol) were measured before and at regular intervals throughout a 3-h aerobic exercise test on a cycloergometer at 50% of W(max). Diet did not significantly affect GH and cortisol concentrations during exercise but resulted in a significant increase in ghrelin and decrease in leptin concentrations after LF compared with HF diet (area under the curve (AUC) ghrelin LF vs HF: P < 0.03; AUC leptin LF vs HF: P < 0.02, Wilcoxon rank test). These data suggest that acute negative energy balance induced by exercise elicits a hormonal response with opposite changes of ghrelin and leptin. In addition, the hormonal response is modulated by the preceding intake of fat.

Anticipatory cognitive stress appraisal and the acute procoagulant stress response in men

OBJECTIVE: Acute mental stress elicits blood hypercoagulability. Following a transactional stress model, we investigated whether individuals who anticipate stress as more threatening, challenging, and as exceeding their coping skills show greater stress reactivity of the coagulation activation marker D-dimer, indicating fibrin generation in plasma. METHODS: Forty-seven men (mean age 44 +/- 14 years; mean blood pressure [MBP] 101 +/- 12 mm Hg; mean body mass index [BMI] 26 +/- 3 kg/m(2)) completed the Primary Appraisal Secondary Appraisal (PASA) scale before undergoing the Trier Social Stress Test (combination of mock job interview and mental arithmetic task). Heart rate, blood pressure, plasma catecholamines, and D-dimer levels were measured before and after stress, and during recovery up to 60 minutes poststress. RESULTS: Hemodynamic measures, catecholamines, and D-dimer changed across all time points (p values <.001). The PASA "Stress Index" (integrated measure of transactional stress perception) correlated with total D-dimer area under the curve (AUC) between rest and 60 minutes poststress (r = 0.30, p = .050) and with D-dimer change from rest to immediately poststress (r = 0.29, p = .046). Primary appraisal (combined "threat" and "challenge") correlated with total D-dimer AUC (r = 0.37, p = .017), D-dimer stress change (r = 0.41, p = .004), and D-dimer recovery (r = 0.32, p = .042). "Challenge" correlated more strongly with D-dimer stress change than "threat" (p = .020). Primary appraisal (DeltaR(2) = 0.098, beta = 0.37, p = .019), and particularly its subscale "challenge" (DeltaR(2) = 0.138, beta = 0.40, p = .005), predicted D-dimer stress change independently of age, BP, BMI, and catecholamine change. CONCLUSIONS: Anticipatory cognitive appraisal determined the extent of coagulation activation to and recovery from stress in men. Particularly individuals who anticipated the stressor as more challenging and also more threatening had a greater fibrin stress response.

The role of stress hormones in the relationship between resting blood pressure and coagulation activity

BACKGROUND: Systemic hypertension confers a hypercoagulable state. We hypothesized that resting mean blood pressure (MBP) interacts with stress hormones in predicting coagulation activity at rest and with acute mental stress. METHODS: We measured plasma clotting factor VII activity (FVII:C), FVIII:C, fibrinogen, D-dimer, epinephrine and norepinephrine, and saliva cortisol in 42 otherwise healthy normotensive and hypertensive medication-free men (mean age 43 +/- 14 years) at rest, immediately after stress, and twice during 60 min of recovery from stress. RESULTS: At rest, the MBP-by-epinephrine interaction predicted FVII:C (beta = -0.33, P < 0.04) and D-dimer (beta = 0.26, P < 0.05), and the MBP-by-cortisol interaction predicted D-dimer (beta = 0.43, P = 0.001), all independent of age and body mass index (BMI). Resting norepinephrine predicted fibrinogen (beta = 0.42, P < 0.01) and D-dimer (beta = 0.37, P < 0.03), both independent of MBP. MBP predicted FVIII:C change from rest to immediately post-stress independent of epinephrine (beta = -0.37, P < 0.03) and norepinephrine (beta = -0.38, P < 0.02). Cortisol change predicted FVIII:C change (beta = -0.30, P < 0.05) independent of age, BMI and MBP. Integrated norepinephrine change from rest to recovery (area under the curve, AUC) predicted D-dimer AUC (beta = 0.34, P = 0.04) independent of MBP. The MBP-by-epinephrine AUC interaction predicted FVII:C AUC (beta = 0.28) and fibrinogen AUC (beta = -0.30), and the MBP-by-norepinephrine AUC interaction predicted FVIII:C AUC (beta = -0.28), all with borderline significance (Ps < 0.09) and independent of age and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: MBP significantly altered the association between stress hormones and coagulation activity at rest and, with borderline significance, across the entire stress and recovery interval. Independent of MBP, catecholamines were associated with procoagulant effects and cortisol reactivity dampened the acute procoagulant stress response.

In vitro effects of bethanechol on specimens of intestinal smooth muscle obtained from the duodenum and jejunum of healthy dairy cows

OBJECTIVE: To describe the in vitro effects of bethanechol on contractility of smooth muscle preparations from the small intestines of healthy cows and define the muscarinic receptor subtypes involved in mediating contraction. SAMPLE POPULATION: Tissue samples from the duodenum and jejunum collected immediately after slaughter of 40 healthy cows. PROCEDURES: Cumulative concentration-response curves were determined for the muscarinic receptor agonist bethanechol with or without prior incubation with subtype-specific receptor antagonists in an organ bath. Effects of bethanechol and antagonists and the influence of intestinal location on basal tone, maximal amplitude (A(max)), and area under the curve (AUC) were evaluated. RESULTS: Bethanechol induced a significant, concentration-dependent increase in all preparations and variables. The effect of bethanechol was more pronounced in jejunal than in duodenal samples and in circular than in longitudinal preparations. Significant inhibition of the effects of bethanechol was observed after prior incubation with muscarinic receptor subtype M(3) antagonists (more commonly for basal tone than for A(max) and AUC). The M(2) receptor antagonists partly inhibited the response to bethanechol, especially for basal tone. The M(3) receptor antagonists were generally more potent than the M(2) receptor antagonists. In a protection experiment, an M(3) receptor antagonist was less potent than when used in combination with an M(2) receptor antagonist. Receptor antagonists for M(1) and M(4) did not affect contractility variables. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Bethanechol acting on muscarinic receptor sub-types M(2) and M(3) may be of clinical use as a prokinetic drug for motility disorders of the duodenum and jejunum in dairy cows.

Influence of ABCB1, ABCC1, ABCC2, and ABCG2 haplotypes on the cellular exposure of nelfinavir in vivo

OBJECTIVES: The human immunodeficiency virus protease inhibitor nelfinavir is substrate of polyspecific drug transporters encoded by ABCB1 (P-glycoprotein), ABCC1 (MRP1) and ABCC2 (MRP2), and an inhibitor of BCRP, encoded by ABCG2. Genetic polymorphism in these genes may be associated with changes in transport function. METHODS: A comprehensive evaluation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (39 SNPs in ABCB1, 7 in ABCC1, 27 in ABCC2, and 16 in ABCG2), and inferred haplotypes was done to assess possible associations of genetic variants with cellular exposure of nelfinavir in vivo. Analysis used peripheral mononuclear cells from individuals receiving nelfinavir (n=28). Key results were re-examined in a larger sample size (n=129) contributing data on plasma drug levels. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant association between cellular nelfinavir area under the curve (AUC) and SNPs or haplotypes at ABCC1, ABCC2, ABCG2. There was an association with cellular exposure for two loci in strong linkage disequilibrium: ABCB1 3435C>T; AUCTT>AUCCT>AUCCC (ratio 2.1, 1.4, 1, Ptrend=0.01), and intron 26 +80T>C; AUCCC> AUCCT > AUCTT (ratio 2.4, 1.3, 1, Ptrend=0.006). Haplotypic analysis using tagging SNPs did not improve the single SNP association values.

Blood concentration curve of cyclosporine: impact of itraconazole in lung transplant recipients

Although the influence of cytochrome P450 inhibitory drugs on the area under the curve (AUC) of cyclosporine (CsA) has been described, data concerning the impact of these substances on the shape of the blood concentration curve are scarce. By assessment of CsA blood levels before and 1, 2, and 4 hr after oral intake (C0, C1, C2, and C4, respectively) CsA profiling examinations were performed in 20 lung transplant recipients taking 400 mg, 200 mg, and no itraconazole, respectively. The three groups showed comparable results for C0, C2, and AUC(0-12). Greater values were found for Cmax, Cmax-C0, peak-trough fluctuation and rise to Cmax in favor of the non-itraconazole group. Additionally, tmax was shorter in the non-itraconazole group. Comedication with the metabolic inhibitor itraconazole is associated with a flattening of the CsA blood concentration profile in lung transplant recipients. These changes cannot be assessed by isolated C0, C2, or AUC(0-12) values alone.

Increasing the Antitumor Effect of an EpCAM-Targeting Fusion Toxin by Facile Click PEGylation

Fusion toxins used for cancer-related therapy have demonstrated short circulation half-lives, which impairs tumor localization and, hence, efficacy. Here, we demonstrate that the pharmacokinetics of a fusion toxin composed of a designed ankyrin repeat protein (DARPin) and domain I–truncated Pseudomonas Exotoxin A (PE40/ETA″) can be significantly improved by facile bioorthogonal conjugation with a polyethylene glycol (PEG) polymer at a unique position. Fusion of the anti-EpCAM DARPin Ec1 to ETA″ and expression in methionine-auxotrophic E. coli enabled introduction of the nonnatural amino acid azidohomoalanine (Aha) at position 1 for strain-promoted click PEGylation. PEGylated Ec1-ETA″ was characterized by detailed biochemical analysis, and its potential for tumor targeting was assessed using carcinoma cell lines of various histotypes in vitro, and subcutaneous and orthotopic tumor xenografts in vivo. The mild click reaction resulted in a well-defined mono-PEGylated product, which could be readily purified to homogeneity. Despite an increased hydrodynamic radius resulting from the polymer, the fusion toxin demonstrated high EpCAM-binding activity and retained cytotoxicity in the femtomolar range. Pharmacologic analysis in mice unveiled an almost 6-fold increase in the elimination half-life (14 vs. 82 minutes) and a more than 7-fold increase in the area under the curve (AUC) compared with non-PEGylated Ec1-ETA″, which directly translated in increased and longer-lasting effects on established tumor xenografts. Our data underline the great potential of combining the inherent advantages of the DARPin format with bioorthogonal click chemistry to overcome the limitations of engineering fusion toxins with enhanced efficacy for cancer-related therapy.

Metabolic adaptations and changes of the mammary immune response during beta-hydroxybutyrate administration

Elevation of ketone bodies occurs frequently after parturition during negative energy balance in high yielding dairy cows. Previous studies illustrated that hyperketonemia interferes with metabolism and it is assumed that it impairs the immune response. However, a causative effect of ketone bodies could not be shown in vivo before, because spontaneous hyperketonemia comes usually along with high NEFA and low glucose concentrations. The objective was to study effects of beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) infusion and an additional intramammary lipopolysaccharide (LPS) challenge on metabolism and immune response in dairy cows. Thirteen dairy cows received intravenously either a BHBA infusion (group BHBA, n=5) to induce hyperketonemia (1.7 mmol/L), or an infusion with a 0.9 % saline solution (Control, n=8) for 56 h. Infusions started at 0900 on day 1 and continue up to 1700 two days later. Two udder quarters were challenged with 200 μg Escherichia coli-LPS 48 h after the start of infusion. Blood samples were taken one week and 2 h before the start of infusions as reference samples and hourly during the infusion. Liver and mammary gland biopsies were taken one week before the start of the infusion, 48 h after the start of the infusion, and mammary tissues was additionally taken 8 h after LPS challenge (56 h after the start of infusions). Rectal temperature (RT) and somatic cell count (SCC) was measured before and 48 h after the start of infusions and hourly during LPS challenge. Blood samples were analyzed for plasma glucose, BHBA, NEFA, triglyceride, urea, insulin, glucagon, and cortisol concentration. The mRNA abundance of factors related to potential adaptations of metabolism and immune system was measured in liver and mammary tissue biopsies. Differences between blood constituents, RT, SCC, and mRNA abundance before and 48 h after the start of infusions, and differences between mRNA abundance before and after LPS challenges were tested for significance by GLM of SAS procedure with treatment as fixed effect. Area under the curve was calculated for blood variables during 48 h BHBA infusion and during the LPS challenge, and additionally for RT and SCC during the LPS challenge. Most surprisingly, both plasma glucose and glucagon concentration decreased during the 48 h of BHBA infusion (P<0.05). During the 48 h of BHBA infusion, serum amyloid A mRNA abundance in mammary gland was increased (P<0.01), and haptoglobin (Hp) mRNA abundance tended to increase in cows treated with BHBA compared to control group (P= 0.07). RT, SCC, and candidate genes related to immune response in the liver were not affected by BHBA infusion. However, during LPS challenge the expected increase of both plasma glucose and glucagon concentration was much less pronounced in the animals treated with BHBA (P<0.05) and also SCC increased much less pronounced in the animals infused with BHBA (P<0.05) than in the controls. An increased BHBA infusion rate to maintain plasma BHBA constant could not fully compensate for the decreased plasma BHBA during the LPS challenge which indicates that BHBA is used as an energy source during the immune response. In addition, BHBA infused animals showed a more pronounced increase of mRNA abundance of IL-8, IL-10, and citrate synthase in the mammary tissue of LPS challenged quarters (P<0.05) than control animals. Results demonstrate that infusion of BHBA affects metabolism through decreased plasma glucose concentration which is likely related to a decreased release of glucagon during hyperketonemia and during additional inflammation. It also affects the systemic and mammary immune response which may reflect the increased susceptibility for mastitis during spontaneous hyperketonemia. The obviously reduced gluconeogenesis in response to BHBA infusion may be a mechanism to stimulated the use of BHBA as an energy source instead of glucose, and/or to save oxaloacetate for the citric acid cycle instead of gluconeogenesis and as a consequence to reduce ketogenesis.

Copeptin for the prediction of recurrent cerebrovascular events after transient ischemic attack: results from the CoRisk study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Copeptin has been associated with recurrent cerebrovascular events after transient ischemic attack (TIA). In an independent cohort, we evaluated copeptin for the prediction of recurrent cerebrovascular events within 3 months after TIA and assessed the incremental value of copeptin compared with the ABCD2 (age, blood, clinical features of TIA, duration of symptoms, presence of diabetes mellitus) and ABCD3-I (ABCD2, dual TIA [the presence of ≥2 TIA symptoms within 7 days], imaging [the presence of abnormal findings on neuroimaging]) scores. METHODS This prospective, multicenter cohort study was conducted at 3 tertiary Stroke Centers in Switzerland and Germany. RESULTS From March 2009 through April 2011, we included 302 patients with TIA admitted within 24 hours from symptom onset. Of 28 patients with a recurrent cerebrovascular event within 3 months (stroke or TIA), 11 patients had a stroke. Although the association of copeptin with recurrent cerebrovascular events was not significant, the association with stroke alone as end point was significant. After adjusting for the ABCD2 score, a 10-fold increase in copeptin levels was associated with an odds ratio for stroke of 3.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.28-8.96; P=0.01). After addition of copeptin to the ABCD2 score, the area under the curve of the ABCD2 score improved from 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.74) to 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.88, P=0.02). In patients with MRI (n=223), the area under the curve of the ABCD3-I score increased in similar magnitude, although not significantly. Based on copeptin, 31.2% of patients were correctly reclassified across the risk categories of the ABCD2 score (net reclassification improvement; P=0.17). CONCLUSIONS Copeptin improved the prognostic value of the ABCD2 score for the prediction of stroke but not TIA, and it may help clinicians in refining risk stratification for patients with TIA. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00878813.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND  Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention". METHODS  A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection. FINDINGS  Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART. CONCLUSIONS  We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

Validation of the Valve Academic Research Consortium Bleeding Definition in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

BACKGROUND The Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC) has proposed a standardized definition of bleeding in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve interventions (TAVI). The VARC bleeding definition has not been validated or compared to other established bleeding definitions so far. Thus, we aimed to investigate the impact of bleeding and compare the predictivity of VARC bleeding events with established bleeding definitions. METHODS AND RESULTS Between August 2007 and April 2012, 489 consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis were included into the Bern-TAVI-Registry. Every bleeding complication was adjudicated according to the definitions of VARC, BARC, TIMI, and GUSTO. Periprocedural blood loss was added to the definition of VARC, providing a modified VARC definition. A total of 152 bleeding events were observed during the index hospitalization. Bleeding severity according to VARC was associated with a gradual increase in mortality, which was comparable to the BARC, TIMI, GUSTO, and the modified VARC classifications. The predictive precision of a multivariable model for mortality at 30 days was significantly improved by adding the most serious bleeding of VARC (area under the curve [AUC], 0.773; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.706 to 0.839), BARC (AUC, 0.776; 95% CI, 0.694 to 0.857), TIMI (AUC, 0.768; 95% CI, 0.692 to 0.844), and GUSTO (AUC, 0.791; 95% CI, 0.714 to 0.869), with the modified VARC definition resulting in the best predictivity (AUC, 0.814; 95% CI, 0.759 to 0.870). CONCLUSIONS The VARC bleeding definition offers a severity stratification that is associated with a gradual increase in mortality and prognostic information comparable to established bleeding definitions. Adding the information of periprocedural blood loss to VARC may increase the sensitivity and the predictive power of this classification.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.