22 resultados para agent-based simulation
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Various osteotomy techniques have been developed to correct the deformity caused by slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) and compared by their clinical outcomes. The aim of the presented study was to compare an intertrochanteric uniplanar flexion osteotomy with a multiplanar osteotomy by their ability to improve postoperative range of motion as measured by simulation of computed tomographic data in patients with SCFE. METHODS: We examined 19 patients with moderate or severe SCFE as classified based on slippage angle. A computer program for the simulation of movement and osteotomy developed in our laboratory was used for study execution. According to a 3-dimensional reconstruction of the computed tomographic data, the physiological range was determined by flexion, abduction, and internal rotation. The multiplanar osteotomy was compared with the uniplanar flexion osteotomy. Both intertrochanteric osteotomy techniques were simulated, and the improvements of the movement range were assessed and compared. RESULTS: The mean slipping and thus correction angles measured were 25 degrees (range, 8-46 degrees) inferior and 54 degrees (range, 32-78 degrees) posterior. After the simulation of multiplanar osteotomy, the virtually measured ranges of motion as determined by bone-to-bone contact were 61 degrees for flexion, 57 degrees for abduction, and 66 degrees for internal rotation. The simulation of the uniplanar flexion osteotomy achieved a flexion of 63 degrees, an abduction of 36 degrees, and an internal rotation of 54 degrees. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from abduction, the improvement in the range of motion by a uniplanar flexion osteotomy is comparable with that of the multiplanar osteotomy. However, the improvement in flexion for the simulation of both techniques is not satisfactory with regard to the requirements of normal everyday life, in contrast to abduction and internal rotation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, Retrospective comparative study.
Resumo:
In this paper, we describe agent-based content retrieval for opportunistic networks, where requesters can delegate content retrieval to agents, which retrieve the content on their behalf. The approach has been implemented in CCNx, the open source CCN framework, and evaluated on Android smart phones. Evaluations have shown that the overhead of agent delegation is only noticeable for very small content. For content larger than 4MB, agent-based content retrieval can even result in a throughput increase of 20% compared to standard CCN download applications. The requester asks every probe interval for agents that have retrieved the desired content. Evaluations have shown that a probe interval of 30s delivers the best overall performance in our scenario because the number of transmitted notification messages can be decreased by up to 80% without significantly increasing the download time.
Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model
Resumo:
Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.
Resumo:
1 We used simulated and experimental plant populations to analyse mortality-driven pattern formation under size-dependent competition. Larger plants had an advantage under size-asymmetric but not under symmetric competition. Initial patterns were random or clumped. 2 The simulations were individual-based and spatially explicit. Size-dependent competition was modelled with different rules to partition overlapping zones of influence. 3 The experiment used genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana with different morphological plasticity and hence size-dependent competition. Compared with wild types, transgenic individuals over-expressed phytochrome A and had decreased plasticity because of disabled phytochrome-mediated shade avoidance. Therefore, competition among transgenics was more asymmetric compared with wild-types. 4 Density-dependent mortality under symmetric competition did not substantially change the initial spatial pattern. Conversely, simulations under asymmetric competition and experimental patterns of transgenic over-expressors showed patterns of survivors that deviated substantially from random mortality independent of initial patterns. 5 Small-scale initial patterns of wild types were regular rather than random or clumped. We hypothesize that this small-scale regularity may be explained by early shade avoidance of seedlings in their cotyledon stage. 6 Our experimental results support predictions from an individual-based simulation model and support the conclusion that regular spatial patterns of surviving individuals should be interpreted as evidence for strong, asymmetric competitive interactions and subsequent density-dependent mortality.
Resumo:
The shift from host-centric to information-centric networking (ICN) promises seamless communication in mobile networks. However, most existing works either consider well-connected networks with high node density or introduce modifications to {ICN} message processing for delay-tolerant Networking (DTN). In this work, we present agent-based content retrieval, which provides information-centric {DTN} support as an application module without modifications to {ICN} message processing. This enables flexible interoperability in changing environments. If no content source can be found via wireless multi-hop routing, requesters may exploit the mobility of neighbor nodes (called agents) by delegating content retrieval to them. Agents that receive a delegation and move closer to content sources can retrieve data and return it back to requesters. We show that agent-based content retrieval may be even more efficient in scenarios where multi-hop communication is possible. Furthermore, we show that broadcast communication may not be necessarily the best option since dynamic unicast requests have little overhead and can better exploit short contact times between nodes (no broadcast delays required for duplicate suppression).
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.
Resumo:
Information-centric networking (ICN) is a new communication paradigm that has been proposed to cope with drawbacks of host-based communication protocols, namely scalability and security. In this thesis, we base our work on Named Data Networking (NDN), which is a popular ICN architecture, and investigate NDN in the context of wireless and mobile ad hoc networks. In a first part, we focus on NDN efficiency (and potential improvements) in wireless environments by investigating NDN in wireless one-hop communication, i.e., without any routing protocols. A basic requirement to initiate informationcentric communication is the knowledge of existing and available content names. Therefore, we develop three opportunistic content discovery algorithms and evaluate them in diverse scenarios for different node densities and content distributions. After content names are known, requesters can retrieve content opportunistically from any neighbor node that provides the content. However, in case of short contact times to content sources, content retrieval may be disrupted. Therefore, we develop a requester application that keeps meta information of disrupted content retrievals and enables resume operations when a new content source has been found. Besides message efficiency, we also evaluate power consumption of information-centric broadcast and unicast communication. Based on our findings, we develop two mechanisms to increase efficiency of information-centric wireless one-hop communication. The first approach called Dynamic Unicast (DU) avoids broadcast communication whenever possible since broadcast transmissions result in more duplicate Data transmissions, lower data rates and higher energy consumption on mobile nodes, which are not interested in overheard Data, compared to unicast communication. Hence, DU uses broadcast communication only until a content source has been found and then retrieves content directly via unicast from the same source. The second approach called RC-NDN targets efficiency of wireless broadcast communication by reducing the number of duplicate Data transmissions. In particular, RC-NDN is a Data encoding scheme for content sources that increases diversity in wireless broadcast transmissions such that multiple concurrent requesters can profit from each others’ (overheard) message transmissions. If requesters and content sources are not in one-hop distance to each other, requests need to be forwarded via multi-hop routing. Therefore, in a second part of this thesis, we investigate information-centric wireless multi-hop communication. First, we consider multi-hop broadcast communication in the context of rather static community networks. We introduce the concept of preferred forwarders, which relay Interest messages slightly faster than non-preferred forwarders to reduce redundant duplicate message transmissions. While this approach works well in static networks, the performance may degrade in mobile networks if preferred forwarders may regularly move away. Thus, to enable routing in mobile ad hoc networks, we extend DU for multi-hop communication. Compared to one-hop communication, multi-hop DU requires efficient path update mechanisms (since multi-hop paths may expire quickly) and new forwarding strategies to maintain NDN benefits (request aggregation and caching) such that only a few messages need to be transmitted over the entire end-to-end path even in case of multiple concurrent requesters. To perform quick retransmission in case of collisions or other transmission errors, we implement and evaluate retransmission timers from related work and compare them to CCNTimer, which is a new algorithm that enables shorter content retrieval times in information-centric wireless multi-hop communication. Yet, in case of intermittent connectivity between requesters and content sources, multi-hop routing protocols may not work because they require continuous end-to-end paths. Therefore, we present agent-based content retrieval (ACR) for delay-tolerant networks. In ACR, requester nodes can delegate content retrieval to mobile agent nodes, which move closer to content sources, can retrieve content and return it to requesters. Thus, ACR exploits the mobility of agent nodes to retrieve content from remote locations. To enable delay-tolerant communication via agents, retrieved content needs to be stored persistently such that requesters can verify its authenticity via original publisher signatures. To achieve this, we develop a persistent caching concept that maintains received popular content in repositories and deletes unpopular content if free space is required. Since our persistent caching concept can complement regular short-term caching in the content store, it can also be used for network caching to store popular delay-tolerant content at edge routers (to reduce network traffic and improve network performance) while real-time traffic can still be maintained and served from the content store.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.