Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories II: Interpretability lower bound of Feferman's explicit mathematics T0

We partially solve a long-standing problem in the proof theory of explicit mathematics or the proof theory in general. Namely, we give a lower bound of Feferman’s system T0 of explicit mathematics (but only when formulated on classical logic) with a concrete interpretat ion of the subsystem Σ12-AC+ (BI) of second order arithmetic inside T0. Whereas a lower bound proof in the sense of proof-theoretic reducibility or of ordinalanalysis was already given in 80s, the lower bound in the sense of interpretability we give here is new. We apply the new interpretation method developed by the author and Zumbrunnen (2015), which can be seen as the third kind of model construction method for classical theories, after Cohen’s forcing and Krivine’s classical realizability. It gives us an interpretation between classical theories, by composing interpretations between intuitionistic theories.

Lower complexity bounds in justification logic

Justification Logic studies epistemic and provability phenomena by introducing justifications/proofs into the language in the form of justification terms. Pure justification logics serve as counterparts of traditional modal epistemic logics, and hybrid logics combine epistemic modalities with justification terms. The computational complexity of pure justification logics is typically lower than that of the corresponding modal logics. Moreover, the so-called reflected fragments, which still contain complete information about the respective justification logics, are known to be in~NP for a wide range of justification logics, pure and hybrid alike. This paper shows that, under reasonable additional restrictions, these reflected fragments are NP-complete, thereby proving a matching lower bound. The proof method is then extended to provide a uniform proof that the corresponding full pure justification logics are $\Pi^p_2$-hard, reproving and generalizing an earlier result by Milnikel.

Unexplained gonad alterations in whitefish (Coregonus spp.) from Lake Thun, Switzerland: levels of persistent organic pollutants in different morphs

Since 2000, a surprisingly high number of macroscopical gonad alterations has been reported in whitefish (Coregonus spp.) from Lake Thun, Switzerland. This unique phenomenon is still unexplained and has received much public attention. As one possible trigger for these effects, the presence of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic compounds acting as endocrine disruptors in the lake has been discussed. In this study, concentrations of selected persistent organic pollutants were examined in two morphs of whitefish from Lake Thun and their link to the observed abnormalities was investigated. Analyzed compound classes included polychlorinated biphenyls, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, polychlorinated naphthalenes, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and hexabromocyclododecanes. The target substances were identified in all samples and concentrations of the analyzed compounds were highly correlated among each other. These correlations show that the analyzed substances have the same distribution pattern throughout the lake and that uptake, accumulation and elimination processes are similar. Significant differences in contaminant levels within the samples existed between the two analyzed morphs of whitefish, most likely due to different age, food patterns and growth rate. No difference in contaminant levels was observed between fish with abnormal gonads and fish with normal gonads, suggesting no causal link between the investigated lipophilic organohalogen compounds present in fish and the observed gonad abnormalities in whitefish from Lake Thun. A comparison to existing data shows that concentrations in Lake Thun whitefish are at the lower bound of contaminant levels in whitefish from Swiss lakes or from European waters.

On the signature of positive braids and adjacency for torus knots

The objects of study in this thesis are knots. More precisely, positive braid knots, which include algebraic knots and torus knots. In the first part of this thesis, we compare two classical knot invariants - the genus g and the signature σ - for positive braid knots. Our main result on positive braid knots establishes a linear lower bound for the signature in terms of the genus. In the second part of the thesis, a positive braid approach is applied to the study of the local behavior of polynomial functions from the complex affine plane to the complex numbers. After endowing polynomial function germs with a suitable topology, the adjacency problem arises: for a fixed germ f, what classes of germs g can be found arbitrarily close to f? We introduce two purely topological notions of adjacency for knots and discuss connections to algebraic notions of adjacency and the adjacency problem.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories I: Operational set theory without choice is Π1-equivalent to KP

We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

Methodology for GPS Synchronization Evaluation with High Accuracy

Clock synchronization in the order of nanoseconds is one of the critical factors for time-based localization. Currently used time synchronization methods are developed for the more relaxed needs of network operation. Their usability for positioning should be carefully evaluated. In this paper, we are particularly interested in GPS-based time synchronization. To judge its usability for localization we need a method that can evaluate the achieved time synchronization with nanosecond accuracy. Our method to evaluate the synchronization accuracy is inspired by signal processing algorithms and relies on fine grain time information. The method is able to calculate the clock offset and skew between devices with nanosecond accuracy in real time. It was implemented using software defined radio technology. We demonstrate that GPS-based synchronization suffers from remaining clock offset in the range of a few hundred of nanoseconds but the clock skew is negligible. Finally, we determine a corresponding lower bound on the expected positioning error.

Provenance discrimination of Lower Cretaceous synrift sandstones (eastern Iberian Chain Spain) Constraints from detrital modes heavy minerals and geochemistry

Petrography, geochemical whole-rock composition, and chemical analyses of tourmaline were performed in order to determine the source areas of Lower Cretaceous Mora, El Castellar, and uppermost Camarillas Formation sandstones from the Iberian Chain, Spain. Sandstones were deposited in intraplate subbasins, which are bound by plutonic and volcanic rocks of Permian, Triassic, and Jurassic age, Paleozoic metamorphic rocks, and Triassic sedimentary rocks. Modal analyses together with petrographic and cathodoluminescence observations allowed us to define three quartz-feldspathic petrofacies and recognize diagenetic processes that modified the original framework composition. Results from average restored petrofacies are: Mora petrofacies = P/F >1 and Q(r)70 F(r)22 R(r)9; El Castellar petrofacies = P/F >1 and Q(r)57 F(r)25 R(r)18; and Camarillas petrofacies = P/F ∼ zero and Q(r)64 F(r)28 R(r)7 (P—plagioclase; F—feldspar; Q—quartz; R—rock fragments; r—restored composition). Trace-element and rare earth element abundances of whole-rock analyses discriminate well between the three petrofacies based on: (1) the Rb concentration, which is indicative of the K content and reflects the amount of K-feldspar modal abundance, and (2) the relative modal abundance of heavy minerals (tourmaline, zircon, titanite, and apatite), which is reproduced by the elements hosted in the observed heavy mineral assemblage (i.e., B and Li for tourmaline; Zr, Hf, and Ta for zircon; Ti, Ta, Nb, and their rare earth elements for titanite; and P, Y, and their rare earth elements for apatite). Tourmaline chemical composition for the three petrofacies ranges from Fe-tourmaline of granitic to Mg-tourmaline of metamorphic origin. The three defined petrofacies suggest a mixed provenance from plutonic and metamorphic source rocks. However, a progressively major influence of granitic source rocks was detected from the lowermost Mora petrofacies toward the uppermost Camarillas petrofacies. This provenance trend is consistent with the uplift and erosion of the Iberian Massif, which coincided with the development of the latest Berriasian synrift regional unconformity and affected all of the Iberian intraplate basins. The uplifting stage of Iberian Massif pluton caused a significant dilution of Paleozoic metamorphic source areas, which were dominant during the sedimentation of the lowermost Mora and El Castellar petrofacies. The association of petrographic data with whole-rock geochemical compositions and tourmaline chemical analysis has proved to be useful for determining source area characteristics, their predominance, and the evolution of source rock types during the deposition of quartz-feldspathic sandstones in intraplate basins. This approach ensures that provenance interpretation is consistent with the geological context.

Comparison of energy expenditure, eating pattern and physical activity of grazing and zero-grazing dairy cows at different time points during lactation

An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of grazing versus zero-grazing on energy expenditure (EE), feeding behaviour and physical activity in dairy cows at different stages of lactation. Fourteen Holstein cows were subjected to two treatments in a repeated crossover design with three experimental series (S1, S2, and S3) reflecting increased days in milk (DIM). At the beginning of each series, cows were on average at 38, 94 and 171 (standard deviation (SD) 10.8) DIM, respectively. Each series consisted of two periods containing a 7-d adaptation and a 7-d collection period each. Cows either grazed on pasture for 16–18.5 h per day or were kept in a freestall barn and had ad libitum access to herbage harvested from the same paddock. Herbage intake was estimated using the double alkane technique. On each day of the collection period, EE of one cow in the barn and of one cow on pasture was determined for 6 h by using the 13C bicarbonate dilution technique, with blood sample collection done either manually in the barn or using an automatic sampling system on pasture. Furthermore, during each collection period physical activity and feeding behaviour of cows were recorded over 3 d using pedometers and behaviour recorders. Milk yield decreased with increasing DIM (P<0.001) but was similar with both treatments. Herbage intake was lower (P<0.01) for grazing cows (16.8 kg dry matter (DM)/d) compared to zero-grazing cows (18.9 kg DM/d). The lowest (P<0.001) intake was observed in S1 and similar intakes were observed in S2 and S3. Within the 6-h measurement period, grazing cows expended 19% more (P<0.001) energy (319 versus 269 kJ/kg metabolic body size (BW0.75)) than zero-grazing cows and differences in EE did not change with increasing DIM. Grazing cows spent proportionally more (P<0.001) time walking and less time standing (P<0.001) and lying (P<0.05) than zero-grazing cows. The proportion of time spent eating was greater (P<0.001) and that of time spent ruminating was lower (P<0.05) for grazing cows compared to zero-grazing cows. In conclusion, lower feed intake along with the unchanged milk production indicates that grazing cows mobilized body reserves to cover additional energy requirements which were at least partly caused by more physical activity. However, changes in cows׳ behaviour between the considered time points during lactation were too small so that differences in EE remained similar between treatments with increasing DIM.