Detecting outlying studies in meta-regression models using a forward search algorithm.

When considering data from many trials, it is likely that some of them present a markedly different intervention effect or exert an undue influence on the summary results. We develop a forward search algorithm for identifying outlying and influential studies in meta-analysis models. The forward search algorithm starts by fitting the hypothesized model to a small subset of likely outlier-free studies and proceeds by adding studies into the set one-by-one that are determined to be closest to the fitted model of the existing set. As each study is added to the set, plots of estimated parameters and measures of fit are monitored to identify outliers by sharp changes in the forward plots. We apply the proposed outlier detection method to two real data sets; a meta-analysis of 26 studies that examines the effect of writing-to-learn interventions on academic achievement adjusting for three possible effect modifiers, and a meta-analysis of 70 studies that compares a fluoride toothpaste treatment to placebo for preventing dental caries in children. A simple simulated example is used to illustrate the steps of the proposed methodology, and a small-scale simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Authorising History: Gestures of Authorship in Fourteenth-Century English Historiography

This book discusses the strategies and rhetorical means by which four authors of Middle English verse historiography seek to authorise their works and themselves. Paying careful attention to the texts, it traces the ways in which authors inscribe their fictional selves and seek to give authority to their constructions of history. It further investigates how the authors position themselves in relation to their task of writing history, their sources and their audiences. This study provides new insights into the processes of the appropriation of history around 1300 by social groups whose lack of the relevant languages, before this 'anglicising' of the dominant Latin and French history constructions, prevented their access to the history of the British isles.

What Does the Market Learn from Stock Offering Revisions?

We examine the disclosure of size revisions of seasoned stock offerings to see what information revisions impart to investros. Revisions could deliver firm-originated infoirmation, which discloses something managers know about the firm. Alternatively, they could disseminate market-originated information, which is information market participants have but which is not conveyed until trading takes place. Our results reject the notion that revisions reveal firm-originated news. Instead, the results are consistent with the market-originated news hypothesis and suggest a mechanism that investros and underwriters use to learn about the demand for an offering.

Male reproductive pattern in a polygynous ungulate with a slow life-history: the role of age, social status and alternative mating tactics

According to life-history theory age-dependent investments into reproduction are thought to co-vary with survival and growth of animals. In polygynous species, in which size is an important determinant of reproductive success, male reproduction via alternative mating tactics at young age are consequently expected to be the less frequent in species with higher survival. We tested this hypothesis in male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a highly sexually dimorphic mountain ungulate whose males have been reported to exhibit extremely high adult survival rates. Using data from two offspring cohorts in a population in the Swiss Alps, the effects of age, dominance and mating tactic on the likelihood of paternity were inferred within a Bayesian framework. In accordance with our hypothesis, reproductive success in male Alpine ibex was heavily biased towards older, dominant males that monopolized access to receptive females by adopting the 'tending' tactic, while success among young, subordinate males via the sneaking tactic 'coursing' was in general low and rare. In addition, we detected a high reproductive skew in male Alpine ibex, suggesting a large opportunity for selection. Compared with other ungulates with higher mortality rates, reproduction among young male Alpine ibex was much lower and more sporadic. Consistent with that, further examinations on the species level indicated that in polygynous ungulates the significance of early reproduction appears to decrease with increasing survival. Overall, this study supports the theory that survival prospects of males modulate the investments into reproduction via alternative mating tactics early in life. In the case of male Alpine ibex, the results indicate that their life-history strategy targets for long life, slow and prolonged growth and late reproduction.

Contribution of Genetic Background, Traditional Risk Factors, and HIV-Related Factors to Coronary Artery Disease Events in HIV-Positive Persons

Background Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. Methods In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. Results A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9×10−4). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16–1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10–2.49), ≥1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17–2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. Conclusions In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD.

Cortisol levels and history of depression in acute coronary syndrome patients

BACKGROUND: Depressed mood following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a risk factor for future cardiac morbidity. Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis dysregulation is associated with depression, and may be a process through which depressive symptoms influence later cardiac health. Additionally, a history of depression predicts depressive symptoms in the weeks following ACS. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a history of depression and/or current depression are associated with the HPA axis dysregulation following ACS. METHOD: A total of 152 cardiac patients completed a structured diagnostic interview, a standardized depression questionnaire and a cortisol profile over the day, 3 weeks after an ACS. Cortisol was analysed using: the cortisol awakening response (CAR), total cortisol output estimated using the area under the curve method, and the slope of cortisol decline over the day. RESULTS: Total cortisol output was positively associated with history of depression, after adjustment for age, gender, marital status, ethnicity, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), Global Registry of Acute Cardiac Events (GRACE) risk score, days in hospital, medication with statins and antiplatelet compounds, and current depression score. Men with clinically diagnosed depression after ACS showed a blunted CAR, but the CAR was not related to a history of depression. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a history of depression showed increased total cortisol output, but this is unlikely to be responsible for associations between depression after ACS and later cardiac morbidity. However, the blunted CAR in patients with severe depression following ACS indicates that HPA dysregulation is present.

Adolescence and parental history of alcoholism: insights from the sleep EEG

BACKGROUND Disrupted sleep is a common complaint of individuals with alcohol use disorder and in abstinent alcoholics. Furthermore, among recovering alcoholics, poor sleep predicts relapse to drinking. Whether disrupted sleep in these populations results from prolonged alcohol use or precedes the onset of drinking is not known. The aim of this study was to examine the sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) in alcohol-naïve, parental history positive (PH+), and negative (PH-) boys and girls. METHODS All-night sleep EEG recordings in 2 longitudinal cohorts (child and teen) followed at 1.5 to 3 year intervals were analyzed. The child and teen participants were 9/10 and 15/16 years old at the initial assessment, respectively. Parental history status was classified by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria applied to structured interviews (DIS-IV) resulting in 14 PH- and 10 PH+ children and 14 PH- and 10 PH+ teens. Sleep data were visually scored in 30-second epochs using standard criteria. Power spectra were calculated for EEG derivations C3/A2, C4/A1, O2/A1, O1/A2 for nonrapid eye movement (NREM) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. RESULTS We found no difference between PH+ and PH- individuals in either cohort for any visually scored sleep stage variable. Spectral power declined in both cohorts across assessments for NREM and REM sleep in all derivations and across frequencies independent of parental history status. With regard to parental history, NREM sleep EEG power was lower for the delta band in PH+ teens at both assessments for the central derivations. Furthermore, power in the sigma band for the right occipital derivation in both NREM and REM sleep was lower in PH+ children only at the initial assessment. CONCLUSIONS We found no gross signs of sleep disruption as a function of parental history. Modest differences in spectral EEG power between PH+ and PH- children and teens indicate that a marker of parental alcohol history may be detectable in teens at risk for problem drinking.