The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

The long arm of time pressure at work: Cognitive failure and commuting near-accidents

This study tests whether cognitive failures mediate effects of work-related time pressure and time control on commuting accidents and near-accidents. Participants were 83 employees (56% female) who each commuted between their regular place of residence and place of work using vehicles. The Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) asked for the frequency of failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action execution. Time pressure and time control at work were assessed by the Instrument for Stress Oriented Task Analysis (ISTA). Commuting accidents in the last 12 months were reported by 10% of participants, and half of the sample reported commuting near-accidents in the last 4 weeks. Cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of time pressure at work on near-accidents even when age, gender, neuroticism, conscientiousness, commuting duration, commuting distance, and time pressure during commuting were controlled for. Time control was negatively related to cognitive failure and neuroticism, but no association with commuting accidents or near-accidents was found. Time pressure at work is likely to increase cognitive load. Time pressure might, therefore, increase cognitive failures during work and also during commuting. Hence, time pressure at work can decrease commuting safety. The result suggests a reduction of time pressure at work should improve commuting safety.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Multimodal Registration Procedure for the Initial Spatial Alignment of a Retinal Video Sequence to a Retinal Composite Image

Accurate placement of lesions is crucial for the effectiveness and safety of a retinal laser photocoagulation treatment. Computer assistance provides the capability for improvements to treatment accuracy and execution time. The idea is to use video frames acquired from a scanning digital ophthalmoscope (SDO) to compensate for retinal motion during laser treatment. This paper presents a method for the multimodal registration of the initial frame from an SDO retinal video sequence to a retinal composite image, which may contain a treatment plan. The retinal registration procedure comprises the following steps: 1) detection of vessel centerline points and identification of the optic disc; 2) prealignment of the video frame and the composite image based on optic disc parameters; and 3) iterative matching of the detected vessel centerline points in expanding matching regions. This registration algorithm was designed for the initialization of a real-time registration procedure that registers the subsequent video frames to the composite image. The algorithm demonstrated its capability to register various pairs of SDO video frames and composite images acquired from patients.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Effects of local continuous release of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) on peripheral nerve regeneration in a rat model

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of continuously released BDNF on peripheral nerve regeneration in a rat model. Initial in vitro evaluation of calcium alginate prolonged-release-capsules (PRC) proved a consistent release of BDNF for a minimum of 8 weeks. In vivo, a worst case scenario was created by surgical removal of a 20-mm section of the sciatic nerve of the rat. Twenty-four autologous fascia tubes were filled with calcium alginate spheres and sutured to the epineurium of both nerve ends. The animals were divided into 3 groups. In group 1, the fascial tube contained plain calcium alginate spheres. In groups 2 and 3, the fascial tube contained calcium alginate spheres with BDNF alone or BDNF stabilized with bovine serum albumin, respectively. The autocannibalization of the operated extremity was clinically assessed and documented in 12 additional rats. The regeneration was evaluated histologically at 4 weeks and 10 weeks in a blinded manner. The length of nerve fibers and the numbers of axons formed in the tube was measured. Over a 10-week period, axons have grown significantly faster in groups 2 and 3 with continuously released BDNF compared to the control. The rats treated with BDNF (groups 2 and 3) demonstrated significantly less autocannibalization than the control group (group 1). These results suggest that BDNF may not only stimulate faster peripheral nerve regeneration provided there is an ideal, biodegradable continuous delivery system but that it significantly reduces the neuropathic pain in the rat model.

Safety of Active Implantable Devices during MRI Examinations: A Finite Element Analysis of an Implantable Pump

The goal of this study was to propose a general numerical analysis methodology to evaluate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-safety of active implants. Numerical models based on the finite element (FE) technique were used to estimate if the normal operation of an active device was altered during MRI imaging. An active implanted pump was chosen to illustrate the method. A set of controlled experiments were proposed and performed to validate the numerical model. The calculated induced voltages in the important electronic components of the device showed dependence with the MRI field strength. For the MRI radiofrequency fields, significant induced voltages of up to 20 V were calculated for a 0.3T field-strength MRI. For the 1.5 and 3.0T MRIs, the calculated voltages were insignificant. On the other hand, induced voltages up to 11 V were calculated in the critical electronic components for the 3.0T MRI due to the gradient fields. Values obtained in this work reflect to the worst case situation which is virtually impossible to achieve in normal scanning situations. Since the calculated voltages may be removed by appropriate protection circuits, no critical problems affecting the normal operation of the pump were identified. This study showed that the proposed methodology helps the identification of the possible incompatibilities between active implants and MR imaging, and can be used to aid the design of critical electronic systems to ensure MRI-safety

Hardware accelerated ray cast of volume data and volume gradient for an optimized splines-based multi-resolution 2D-3D registration

This paper describes a method for DRR generation as well as for volume gradients projection using hardware accelerated 2D texture mapping and accumulation buffering and demonstrates its application in 2D-3D registration of X-ray fluoroscopy to CT images. The robustness of the present registration scheme are guaranteed by taking advantage of a coarse-to-fine processing of the volume/image pyramids based on cubic B-splines. A human cadaveric spine specimen together with its ground truth was used to compare the present scheme with a purely software-based scheme in three aspects: accuracy, speed, and capture ranges. Our experiments revealed an equivalent accuracy and capture ranges but with much shorter registration time with the present scheme. More specifically, the results showed 0.8 mm average target registration error, 55 second average execution time per registration, and 10 mm and 10° capture ranges for the present scheme when tested on a 3.0 GHz Pentium 4 computer.

Dose optimization approach to fast X-ray microtomography of the lung alveoli

A basic prerequisite for in vivo X-ray imaging of the lung is the exact determination of radiation dose. Achieving resolutions of the order of micrometres may become particularly challenging owing to increased dose, which in the worst case can be lethal for the imaged animal model. A framework for linking image quality to radiation dose in order to optimize experimental parameters with respect to dose reduction is presented. The approach may find application for current and future in vivo studies to facilitate proper experiment planning and radiation risk assessment on the one hand and exploit imaging capabilities on the other.

Floods of the Upper Danube River and Its Tributaries and Their Impact on Urban Economies (c. 1350–1600): The Examples of the Towns of Krems/Stein and Wels (Austria)

This paper examines the impact of disastrous and ‘ordinary’ floods on human societies in what is now Austria. The focus is on urban areas and their neighbourhoods. Examining institutional sources such as accounts of the bridge masters, charters, statutes and official petitions, it can be shown that city communities were well acquainted with this permanent risk: in fact, an office was established for the restoration of bridges and the maintenance of water defences and large depots for timber and water pipes ensured that the reconstruction of bridges and the system of water supply could start immediately after the floods had subsided. Carpenters and similar groups gained 10 to 20 per cent of their income from the repair of bridges and other flood damage. The construction of houses in endangered zones was adapted in order to survive the worst case experiences. Thus, we may describe those communities living along the central European rivers as ‘cultures of flood management’. This special knowledge vanished, however, from the mid-nineteenth century onwards, when river regulations gave the people a false feeling of security.

Minimal-invasive percutaneous reduction and transsacral screw fixation for U-shaped fractures

STUDY DESIGN Technical note and case series. OBJECTIVE To introduce an innovative minimal-invasive surgical procedure reducing surgery time and blood loss in management of U-shaped sacrum fractures. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND Despite their seldom appearance, U-shaped fractures can cause severe neurological deficits and surgical management difficulties. According to the nature of the injury normally occurring in multi-injured patients after a fall from height, a jump, or road traffic accident, U-shaped fractures create a spinopelvic dissociation and hence are highly unstable. In the past, time-consuming open procedures like large posterior constructs or shortening osteotomies with or without decompression were the method of choice, sacrificing spinal mobility. Insufficient restoration of sacrococcygeal angle and pelvic incidence with conventional techniques may have adverse long-term effects in these patients. METHODS In a consecutive series of 3 patients, percutaneous reduction of the fracture with Schanz pins inserted in either the pedicles of L5 or the S1 body and the posterior superior iliac crest was achieved. The Schanz pins act as lever, allowing a good manipulation of the fracture. The reduction is secured by a temporary external fixator to permit optimal restoration of pelvic incidence and sacral kyphosis. Insertion of 2 transsacral screws allow fixation of the restored spinopelvic alignment. RESULTS Anatomic alignment of the sacrum was possible in each case. Surgery time ranged from 90 to 155 minutes and the blood loss was <50 mL in all 3 cases. Two patients had very good results in the long term regarding maintenance of pelvic incidence and sacrococcygeal angle. One patient with previous cauda equina decompression had loss of correction after 6 months. CONCLUSIONS Percutaneous reduction and transsacral screw fixation offers a less invasive method for treating U-shaped fractures. This can be advantageous in treatment of patients with multiple injuries.

Is there good simulation basic training for end-to-side vascular microanastomoses?

BACKGROUND Microvascular anastomosis is the cornerstone of free tissue transfers. Irrespective of the microsurgical technique that one seeks to integrate or improve, the time commitment in the laboratory is significant. After extensive previous training on several animal models, we sought to identify an animal model that circumvents the following issues: ethical rules, cost, time-consuming and expensive anesthesia, and surgical preparation of tissues required to access vessels before performing the microsurgical training, not to mention that laboratories are closed on weekends. METHODS Between January 2012 and April 2012, a total of 91 earthworms were used for 150 microsurgical training exercises to simulate vascular end-to-side microanastomosis. The training sessions were divided into ten periods of 7 days. Each training session included 15 simulations of end-to-side vascular microanastomoses: larger than 1.5 mm (n=5), between 1.0 and 1.5 mm (n=5), and smaller than 1.0 mm (n=5). A linear model with the main variables being the number of weeks (as a numerical covariate) and the size of the animal (as a factor) was used to determine the trend in time of anastomosis over subsequent weeks as well as the differences between the different size groups. RESULTS The linear model shows a significant trend (p<0.001) in time of anastomosis in the course of the training, as well as significant differences (p<0.001) between the groups of animals of different sizes. For microanastomoses larger than 1.5 mm, the mean anastomosis time decreased from 19.3±1.0 to 11.1±0.4 min between the first and last week of training (decrease of 42.5%). For training with smaller diameters, the results showed a decrease in execution time of 43.2% (diameter between 1.0 and 1.5 mm) and 40.9% (diameter<1.0 mm) between the first and last periods. The study demonstrates an improvement in the dexterity and speed of nodes execution. CONCLUSION The earthworm appears to be a reliable experimental model for microsurgical training of end-to-side microanastomoses. Its numerous advantages are discussed here and we predict training on earthworms will significantly grow and develop in the near future. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Food Volume Computation for Self Dietary Assessment Applications

There is great demand for easily-accessible, user-friendly dietary self-management applications. Yet accurate, fully-automatic estimation of nutritional intake using computer vision methods remains an open research problem. One key element of this problem is the volume estimation, which can be computed from 3D models obtained using multi-view geometry. The paper presents a computational system for volume estimation based on the processing of two meal images. A 3D model of the served meal is reconstructed using the acquired images and the volume is computed from the shape. The algorithm was tested on food models (dummy foods) with known volume and on real served food. Volume accuracy was in the order of 90 %, while the total execution time was below 15 seconds per image pair. The proposed system combines simple and computational affordable methods for 3D reconstruction, remained stable throughout the experiments, operates in near real time, and places minimum constraints on users.

Negative bias of processing ambiguously cued emotional stimuli.

Daily we cope with upcoming potentially disadvantageous events. Therefore, it makes sense to be prepared for the worst case. Such a 'pessimistic' bias is reflected in brain activation during emotion processing. Healthy individuals underwent functional neuroimaging while viewing emotional stimuli that were earlier cued ambiguously or unambiguously concerning their emotional valence. Presentation of ambiguously announced pleasant pictures compared with unambiguously announced pleasant pictures resulted in increased activity in the ventrolateral prefrontal, premotor and temporal cortex, and in the caudate nucleus. This was not the case for the respective negative conditions. This indicates that pleasant stimuli after ambiguous cueing provided 'unexpected' emotional input, resulting in the adaptation of brain activity. It strengthens the hypothesis of a 'pessimistic' bias of brain activation toward ambiguous emotional events.