Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Disparities in bone density measurement history and osteoporosis medication utilisation in Swiss women: results from the Swiss Health Survey 2007

BACKGROUND Although factors associated with the utilisation of bone density measurement (BDM) and osteoporosis treatment have been regularly assessed in the US and Canada, they have not been effectively analysed in European countries. This study assessed factors associated with the utilisation of BDM and osteoporosis medication (OM) in Switzerland. METHODS The Swiss Health Survey 2007 data included self-reported information on BDM and OM for women aged 40 years and older who were living in private households. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify sociodemographic, socioeconomic, healthcare-related and osteoporosis risk factors associated with BDM and OM utilisation. RESULTS The lifetime prevalence of BDM was 25.6% (95% CI: 24.3-26.9%) for women aged 40 years and older. BDM utilisation was associated with most sociodemographic factors, all the socioeconomic and healthcare-related factors, and with major osteoporosis risk factors analysed. The prevalence of current OM was 7.8% (95% CI: 7.0-8.6%) and it was associated with some sociodemographic and most healthcare-related factors but only with one socioeconomic factor. CONCLUSIONS In Swiss women, ever having had a BDM and current OM were low and utilisation disparities exist according to sociodemographic, socioeconomic and healthcare-related factors. This might foster further health inequalities. The reasons for these findings should be addressed in further studies of the elderly women, including those living in institutions.

Retention in care under universal antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') in Malawi

OBJECTIVE To explore the levels and determinants of loss to follow-up (LTF) under universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') in Malawi. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We examined retention in care, from the date of ART initiation up to 6 months, for women in the Option B+ program. We analysed nationwide facility-level data on women who started ART at 540 facilities (n = 21 939), as well as individual-level data on patients who started ART at 19 large facilities (n = 11 534). RESULTS Of the women who started ART under Option B+ (n = 21 939), 17% appeared to be lost to follow-up 6 months after ART initiation. Most losses occurred in the first 3 months of therapy. Option B+ patients who started therapy during pregnancy were five times more likely than women who started ART in WHO stage 3/4 or with a CD4 cell count 350 cells/μl or less, to never return after their initial clinic visit [odds ratio (OR) 5.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.2-6.1]. Option B+ patients who started therapy while breastfeeding were twice as likely to miss their first follow-up visit (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.8). LTF was highest in pregnant Option B+ patients who began ART at large clinics on the day they were diagnosed with HIV. LTF varied considerably between facilities, ranging from 0 to 58%. CONCLUSION Decreasing LTF will improve the effectiveness of the Option B+ approach. Tailored interventions, like community or family-based models of care could improve its effectiveness.

Chlamydia prevalence in young attenders of rural and regional primary care services in Australia: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE To estimate chlamydia prevalence among 16-29-year-olds attending general practice clinics in Australia. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING A cross-sectional survey was conducted from May 2010 to December 2012. Sexually experienced 16-29-year-olds were recruited from 134 general practice clinics in 54 rural and regional towns in four states and in nine metropolitan clinics (consecutive patients were invited to participate). Participants completed a questionnaire and were tested for chlamydia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Chlamydia prevalence. RESULTS Of 4284 participants, 197 tested positive for chlamydia (4.6%; 95% CI, 3.9%-5.3%). Prevalence was similar in men (5.2% [65/1257]; 95% CI, 3.9%-6.4%) and women (4.4% [132/3027]; 95% CI, 3.5%-5.2%) (P = 0.25) and high in those reporting genital symptoms or a partner with a sexually transmissible infection (STI) - 17.0% in men (8/47; 95% CI, 2.8%-31.2%); 9.5% in women (16/169; 95% CI, 5.1%-13.8%). Nearly three-quarters of cases (73.4% [130/177]) were diagnosed in asymptomatic patients attending for non-sexual health reasons, and 83.8% of all participants (3258/3890) had attended for non-sexual health reasons. Prevalence was slightly higher in participants from rural and regional areas (4.8% [179/3724]; 95% CI, 4.0%-5.6%) than those from metropolitan areas (3.1% [17/548]; 95% CI, 1.5%-4.7%) (P = 0.08). In multivariable analysis, increasing partner numbers in previous 12 months (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] for three or more partners, 5.11 [95% CI, 2.35-11.08]), chlamydia diagnosis in previous 12 months (AOR, 4.35 [95% CI, 1.52-12.41]) and inconsistent condom use with most recent partner (AOR, 2.90 [95% CI, 1.31-6.40]) were significantly associated with chlamydia in men. In women, increasing partner numbers in previous 12 months (AOR for two partners, 2.59 [95% CI, 1.59-4.23]; AOR for three or more partners, 3.58 [95% CI, 2.26-5.68]), chlamydia diagnosis in previous 12 months (AOR, 3.13 [95% CI, 1.62-6.06]) and age (AOR for 25-29-year-olds, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.12-0.44]) were associated with chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Chlamydia prevalence is similar in young men and women attending general practice. Testing only those with genital symptoms or a partner with an STI would have missed three-quarters of cases. Most men and women are amenable to being tested in general practice, even in rural and regional areas.

How women and men are addressed in job advertisements

Research has shown that gender references in job advertisements play an important role for gender (in)equality in personnel selection. In advertisements gender is referred to in different ways, for instance, by using grammatically masculine and feminine human nouns (e.g., German Mechaniker/Mechanikerin 'mechanic, masc./fem.'), by mentioning typically feminine or typically masculine traits (e.g., kind and friendly versus determined and independent) as well as by showing pictures of women and men. The present study addresses the questions which forms of gender references occur in job advertisements, how these forms are distributed across different lines of business and across different countries. We collected job advertisements published online in four countries with different rankings of gender equality (i.e., Switzerland, Austria, Poland, and Czech Republic; World Economic Forum, 2011). We randomly selected 100 advertisements per country from four lines of business that are characterized by different proportions of female and male employees: (1) steels/metals, (2) science, (3) restaurants/food services, and (4) health care. The advertisements were analyzed with regard to the linguistic form of the job title and of the remaining text as well as reference to gender-typical traits. We also examined indicators of job status and other information (e.g., equal opportunity policies) which might be related to the use of gender references in job advertisements. The results show that, in general, gender-fair language occurs much more often in job ads from Switzerland and Austria than in those from Poland and the Czech Republic, where job titles are mostly masculine. While exclusive use of feminine forms are almost never used in Switzerland and Austria, they are more frequently used in Poland and Czech Republic. In general, gender-fair forms are more common when there are many women in a line of business, whereas more masculine forms are used where the proportion of women is low. In Switzerland and Austria, masculine forms are mostly combined with the supplement m/f to indicate that both women and men are addressed. The present data provide a sound basis for future studies on gender references in job advertisements. Furthermore it sheds a light on how companies comply with national guidelines of gender equality.

Breast cancer in younger women in Switzerland 1996-2009: A longitudinal population-based study.

BACKGROUND Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

Brief Report: HIV Testing Among Pregnant Women Who Attend Antenatal Care in Malawi.

Malawi adopted the Option B+ strategy in 2011. Its success in reducing mother-to-child transmission depends on coverage and timing of HIV testing. We assessed HIV status ascertainment and its predictors during pregnancy. HIV status ascertainment was 82.3% (95% confidence interval: 80.2 to 85.9) in the pre-Option B+ period and 85.7% (95% confidence interval: 83.4 to 88.0) in the Option B+ period. Higher HIV ascertainment was independently associated with higher age, attending antenatal care more than once, and registration in 2010. The observed high variability of HIV ascertainment between sites (50.6%-97.7%) and over time suggests that HIV test kit shortages and insufficient numbers of staff posed major barriers to reducing mother-to-child transmission.

Assisted and unassisted suicide in men and women: longitudinal study of the Swiss population.

BackgroundIn Switzerland assisted suicide is legal if no self-interest is involved.AimsTo compare the strength and direction of associations with sociodemographic factors between assisted and unassisted suicides.MethodWe calculated rates and used Cox and logistic regression models in a longitudinal study of the Swiss population.ResultsAnalyses were based on 5 004 403 people, 1301 assisted and 5708 unassisted suicides from 2003 to 2008. The rate of unassisted suicides was higher in men than in women, rates of assisted suicides were similar in men and women. Higher education was positively associated with assisted suicide, but negatively with unassisted. Living alone, having no children and no religious affiliation were associated with higher rates of both.ConclusionsSome situations that indicate greater vulnerability such as living alone were associated with both assisted and unassisted suicide. Among the terminally ill, women were more likely to choose assisted suicide, whereas men died more often by unassisted suicide.

Predicting 5- and 10-year survival in older women with early-stage breast cancer: self-rated health and walking ability.

OBJECTIVES To determine life expectancy for older women with breast cancer. DESIGN Prospective longitudinal study with 10 years of follow-up data. SETTING Hospitals or collaborating tumor registries in four geographic regions (Los Angeles, California; Minnesota; North Carolina; Rhode Island). PARTICIPANTS Women aged 65 and older at time of breast cancer diagnosis with Stage I to IIIA disease with measures of self-rated health (SRH) and walking ability at baseline (N = 615; 17% aged ≥80, 52% Stage I, 58% with ≥2 comorbidities). MEASUREMENTS Baseline SRH, baseline self-reported walking ability, all-cause and breast cancer-specific estimated probability of 5- and 10-year survival. RESULTS At the time of breast cancer diagnosis, 39% of women reported poor SRH, and 28% reported limited ability to walk several blocks. The all-cause survival curves appear to separate after approximately 3 years, and the difference in survival probability between those with low SRH and limited walking ability and those with high SRH and no walking ability limitation was significant (0.708 vs 0.855 at 5 years, P ≤ .001; 0.300 vs 0.648 at 10 years, P < .001). There were no differences between the groups in breast cancer-specific survival at 5 and 10 years (P = .66 at 5 years, P = .16 at 10 years). CONCLUSION The combination of low SRH and limited ability to walk several blocks at diagnosis is an important predictor of worse all-cause survival at 5 and 10 years. These self-report measures easily assessed in clinical practice may be an effective strategy to improve treatment decision-making in older adults with cancer.

Retention in care during the first 3 years of antiretroviral therapy for women in Malawi's option B+ programme: an observational cohort study

Background Studies of Malawi's option B+ programme for HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women have reported high loss to follow-up during pregnancy and at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but few data exist about retention during breastfeeding and after weaning. We examined loss to follow-up and retention in care in patients in the option B+ programme during their first 3 years on ART. Methods We analysed two data sources: aggregated facility-level data about patients in option B+ who started ART between Oct 1, 2011, and June 30, 2012, at 546 health facilities; and patient-level data from 20 large facilities with electronic medical record system for HIV-positive women who started ART between Sept 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, under option B+ or because they had WHO clinical stages 3 or 4 disease or had CD4 counts of less than 350 cells per μL. We used facility-level data to calculate representative estimates of retention and loss to follow-up. We used patient-level data to study temporal trends in retention, timing of loss to follow-up, and predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. We defined patients who were more than 60 days late for their first follow-up visit as having no follow-up and patients who were more than 60 days late for a subsequent visit as being lost to follow-up. We calculated proportions and cumulative probabilities of patients who had died, stopped ART, had no follow-up, were lost to follow-up, or were retained alive on ART for 36 months. We calculated odds ratios and hazard ratios to examine predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. Findings Analysis of facility-level data about patients in option B+ who had not transferred to a different facility showed retention in care to be 76·8% (20 475 of 26 658 patients) after 12 months, 70·8% (18 306 of 25 849 patients) after 24 months, and 69·7% (17 787 of 25 535 patients) after 36 months. Patient-level data included 29 145 patients. 14 630 (50·2%) began treatment under option B+. Patients in option B+ had a higher risk of having no follow-up and, for the first 2 years of ART, higher risk of loss to follow-up than did patients who started ART because they had CD4 counts less than 350 cells per μL or WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease. Risk of loss to follow-up during the third year was low and similar for patients retained for 2 years. Retention rates did not change as the option B+ programme matured. Interpretation Our data suggest that pregnant and breastfeeding women who start ART immediately after they are diagnosed with HIV can be retained on ART through the option B+ programme, even after many have stopped breastfeeding. Interventions might be needed to improve retention in the first year on ART in option B+. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research Health, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Is human herpesvirus 8 infection more common in men than in women? Systematic review and meta-analysis.

All forms of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) are more common in men than in women. It is unknown if this is due to a higher prevalence of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), the underlying cause of KS, in men compared to women. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the association between HHV-8 seropositivity and gender in the general population. Studies in selected populations like for example, blood donors, hospital patients, and men who have sex with men were excluded. We searched Medline and Embase from January 1994 to February 2015. We included observational studies that recruited participants from the general population and reported HHV-8 seroprevalence for men and women or boys and girls. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool odds ratios (OR) of the association between HHV-8 and gender. We used meta-regression to identify effect modifiers, including age, geographical region and type of HHV-8 antibody test. We included 22 studies, with 36,175 participants. Men from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (OR 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.34), but not men from elsewhere (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.06), were more likely to be HHV-8 seropositive than women (p value for interaction=0.010). There was no difference in HHV-8 seroprevalence between boys and girls from SSA (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.72-1.13). The type of HHV-8 assay did not affect the overall results. A higher HHV-8 seroprevalence in men than women in SSA may partially explain why men have higher KS risk in this region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and lactating women starting art under Option B+ in rural Mozambique.

OBJECTIVE In 2013, Mozambique adopted Option B+, universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and lactating women, as national strategy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. We analyzed retention in care of pregnant and lactating women starting Option B+ in rural northern Mozambique. METHODS We compared ART outcomes in pregnant ("B+pregnant"), lactating ("B+lactating") and non-pregnant-non-lactating women of childbearing age starting ART after clinical and/or immunological criteria ("own health") between July 2013 and June 2014. Lost to follow-up was defined as no contact >180 days after the last visit. Multivariable competing risk models were adjusted for type of facility (type 1 vs. peripheral type 2 health center), age, WHO stage and time from HIV diagnosis to ART. RESULTS Over 333 person-years of follow-up (of 243 "B+pregnant", 65″B+lactating" and 317 "own health" women), 3.7% of women died and 48.5% were lost to follow-up. "B+pregnant" and "B+lactating" women were more likely to be lost in the first year (57% vs. 56.9% vs. 31.6%; p<0.001) and to have no follow-up after the first visit (42.4% vs. 29.2% vs. 16.4%; p<0.001) than "own health" women. In adjusted analyses, risk of being lost to follow-up was higher in "B+pregnant" (adjusted subhazard ratio [asHR]: 2.77; 95% CI: 2.18-3.50; p<0.001) and "B+lactating" (asHR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.37-2.74; p<0.001). Type 2 health center was the only additional significant risk factor for loss to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Retaining pregnant and lactating women in option B+ ART was poor; losses to follow-up were mainly early. The success of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in rural settings with weak health systems will depend on specific improvements in counseling and retention measures, especially at the beginning of treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.