Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Role of interleukins in the regulation of basophil development and secretion

It is well appreciated that differentiation, growth, and function of basophils are regulated by a network of cytokines, and that these cells express a unique composition of surface receptors including interleukin-binding sites. In the current article, most recent discoveries around cytokine regulation of basophils are discussed and compared with previous data.

Do statins reduce the risk of aneurysm development? A case-control study

Recent studies in rats have demonstrated that statins may have an inhibitory effect on intracranial aneurysm (IA) development. The purpose of this study was to assess whether long-term statin use is associated with a reduced risk of IA formation in humans.

Comparison of cartilage histopathology assessment systems on human knee joints at all stages of osteoarthritis development

To compare the MANKIN and OARSI cartilage histopathology assessment systems using human articular cartilage from a large number of donors across the adult age spectrum representing all levels of cartilage degradation.

Endemic pemphigus foliaceus: towards understanding autoimmune mechanisms of disease development

Fogo selvagem is an endemic form of pemphigus foliaceus (EPF) found in Brazil. Environmental and genetic factors are thought to contribute to the disease, which is associated with pathogenic IgG4 autoantibodies against the desmosomal cadherin desmoglein 1. In this issue, as an additional framework to understand autoimmune mechanisms in EPF, Flores et al. have investigated whether fogo selvagem patients and healthy individuals from endemic areas develop autoantibody responses against other desmosomal cadherins and E-cadherin.