Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

[Mumps epidemic in vaccinated children in West Switzerland]

Since 1991, 6 years after the recommendation of universal childhood vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR triple vaccine), Switzerland is confronted with a large number of mumps cases affecting both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. Up to 80% of the children suffering from mumps between 1991 and 1995 had previously been vaccinated, the majority with the Rubini vaccine strain. On the basis of a case-control study including 102 patients and 92 controls from the same pediatric population, a study of the humoral immune-response following vaccination with the Rubini vaccine in 6 young adult volunteers, and two different genetic studies, we investigated the complex problem of large scale vaccine failure in Switzerland. We conclude that the recently reported large number of Swiss mumps cases was caused by at least four interacting factors: 1. A vaccine coverage of 90-95% at the age of 2 years is necessary to interrupt mumps wild virus circulation. The nationwide vaccine coverage in Switzerland of some 80% in 27-36 month-old children is too low. 2. Primary vaccine failures (absence of seroconversion or unprotective low levels of neutralizing antibodies), as well as secondary vaccine failures due to the rapid decline of antibodies to mumps virus in our volunteers and controls, seem to be frequent after vaccination with the Rubini strain. 3. Despite its reported Swiss origin, the Rubini strain does not belong to the mumps virus lineages recently circulating in this area but is closely related to American mumps virus strains. 4. Differences in protein structure between the vaccine strain and the circulating wild type strains, and in particular a different neutralization epitope in the hemagglutinin neuraminidase protein, may additionally contribute to the lack of protection in vaccinated individuals.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the regional context, this could help to classify the density of risk and to accordingly target resources and measures for elimination.

Use of Recombinant Virus Replicon Particles for Vaccination against Mycobacterium ulcerans Disease.

Buruli ulcer, caused by infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans, is a necrotizing disease of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, which is most prevalent in rural regions of West African countries. The majority of clinical presentations seen in patients are ulcers on limbs that can be treated by eight weeks of antibiotic therapy. Nevertheless, scarring and permanent disabilities occur frequently and Buruli ulcer still causes high morbidity. A vaccine against the disease is so far not available but would be of great benefit if used for prophylaxis as well as therapy. In the present study, vesicular stomatitis virus-based RNA replicon particles encoding the M. ulcerans proteins MUL2232 and MUL3720 were generated and the expression of the recombinant antigens characterized in vitro. Immunisation of mice with the recombinant replicon particles elicited antibodies that reacted with the endogenous antigens of M. ulcerans cells. A prime-boost immunization regimen with MUL2232-recombinant replicon particles and recombinant MUL2232 protein induced a strong immune response but only slightly reduced bacterial multiplication in a mouse model of M. ulcerans infection. We conclude that a monovalent vaccine based on the MUL2232 antigen will probably not sufficiently control M. ulcerans infection in humans.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

HIV infection, viral hepatitis and liver fibrosis among prison inmates in West Africa.

BACKGROUND Prisoners represent a vulnerable population for blood-borne and sexually transmitted infections which can potentially lead to liver fibrosis and ultimately cirrhosis. However, little is known about the prevalence of liver fibrosis and associated risk factors among inmates in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS Screening of liver fibrosis was undertaken in a randomly selected sample of male inmates incarcerated in Lome, Togo and in Dakar, Senegal using transient elastography. A liver stiffness measurement ≥9.5 KPa was retained to define the presence of a severe liver fibrosis. All included inmates were also screened for HIV, Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection. Substances abuse including alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use were assessed during face-to-face interviews. Odds Ratio (OR) estimates were computed with their 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) to identify factors associated with severe liver fibrosis. RESULTS Overall, 680 inmates were included with a median age of 30 years [interquartile range: 24-35]. The prevalence of severe fibrosis was 3.1 % (4.9 % in Lome and 1.2 % in Dakar). Infections with HIV, HBV and HCV were identified in 2.6 %, 12.5 % and 0.5 % of inmates, respectively. Factors associated with a severe liver fibrosis were HIV infection (OR = 7.6; CI 1.8-32.1), HBV infection (OR = 4.8; CI 1.8-12.8), HCV infection (OR = 52.6; CI 4.1-673.8), use of traditional medicines (OR = 3.7; CI 1.4-10.1) and being incarcerated in Lome (OR = 3.3; CI 1.1-9.8) compared to Dakar. CONCLUSIONS HIV infection and viral hepatitis infections were identified as important and independent determinants of severe liver fibrosis. While access to active antiviral therapies against HIV and viral hepatitis expands in Africa, adapted strategies for the monitoring of liver disease need to be explored, especially in vulnerable populations such as inmates.