Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the regional context, this could help to classify the density of risk and to accordingly target resources and measures for elimination.

Determinants of vaccine immunity in the cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected children living in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children are at increased risk of infections caused by vaccine preventable pathogens, and specific immunization recommendations have been issued. METHODS: A prospective national multicenter study assessed how these recommendations are followed in Switzerland and how immunization history correlates with vaccine immunity. RESULTS: Among 87 HIV-infected children (mean age: 11.1 years) followed in the 5 Swiss university hospitals and 1 regional hospital, most (76%) had CD4 T cells >25%, were receiving highly active antiretroviral treatment (79%) and had undetectable viral load (60%). Immunization coverage was lower than in the general population and many lacked serum antibodies to vaccine-preventable pathogens, including measles (54%), varicella (39%), and hepatitis B (65%). The presence of vaccine antibodies correlated most significantly with having an up-to-date immunization history (P<0.05). An up-to-date immunization history was not related to age, immunologic stage, or viremia but to the referral medical center. CONCLUSIONS: All pediatricians in charge of HIV-infected children are urged to identify missing immunizations in this high-risk population.

[Mumps epidemic in vaccinated children in West Switzerland]

Since 1991, 6 years after the recommendation of universal childhood vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR triple vaccine), Switzerland is confronted with a large number of mumps cases affecting both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. Up to 80% of the children suffering from mumps between 1991 and 1995 had previously been vaccinated, the majority with the Rubini vaccine strain. On the basis of a case-control study including 102 patients and 92 controls from the same pediatric population, a study of the humoral immune-response following vaccination with the Rubini vaccine in 6 young adult volunteers, and two different genetic studies, we investigated the complex problem of large scale vaccine failure in Switzerland. We conclude that the recently reported large number of Swiss mumps cases was caused by at least four interacting factors: 1. A vaccine coverage of 90-95% at the age of 2 years is necessary to interrupt mumps wild virus circulation. The nationwide vaccine coverage in Switzerland of some 80% in 27-36 month-old children is too low. 2. Primary vaccine failures (absence of seroconversion or unprotective low levels of neutralizing antibodies), as well as secondary vaccine failures due to the rapid decline of antibodies to mumps virus in our volunteers and controls, seem to be frequent after vaccination with the Rubini strain. 3. Despite its reported Swiss origin, the Rubini strain does not belong to the mumps virus lineages recently circulating in this area but is closely related to American mumps virus strains. 4. Differences in protein structure between the vaccine strain and the circulating wild type strains, and in particular a different neutralization epitope in the hemagglutinin neuraminidase protein, may additionally contribute to the lack of protection in vaccinated individuals.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Socioeconomic, Temporal and Regional Variation in Body Mass Index among 188,537 Swiss Male Conscripts Born between 1986 and 1992

BACKGROUND Rising levels of overweight and obesity are important public-health concerns worldwide. The purpose of this study is to elucidate their prevalence and trends in Switzerland by analyzing variations in Body Mass Index (BMI) of Swiss conscripts. METHODS The conscription records were provided by the Swiss Army. This study focussed on conscripts 18.5-20.5 years of age from the seven one-year birth cohorts spanning the period 1986-1992. BMI across professional status, area-based socioeconomic position (abSEP), urbanicity and regions was analyzed. Two piecewise quantile regression models with linear splines for three birth-cohort groups were used to examine the association of median BMI with explanatory variables and to determine the extent to which BMI has varied over time. RESULTS The study population consisted of 188,537 individuals. Median BMI was 22.51 kg/m2 (22.45-22.57 95% confidence interval (CI)). BMI was lower among conscripts of high professional status (-0.46 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.50, -0.42, compared with low), living in areas of high abSEP (-0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.16, -0.07 compared to medium) and from urban communities (-0.07 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.11, -0.03, compared with peri-urban). Comparing with Midland, median BMI was highest in the North-West (0.25 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.19-0.30) and Central regions (0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and lowest in the East (-0.19 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.24, -0.14) and Lake Geneva regions (-0.15 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.09). Trajectories of regional BMI growth varied across birth cohorts, with median BMI remaining high in the Central and North-West regions, whereas stabilization and in some cases a decline were observed elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS BMI of Swiss conscripts is associated with individual and abSEP and urbanicity. Results show regional variation in the levels and temporal trajectories of BMI growth and signal their possible slowdown among recent birth cohorts.

Glacial–interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: A comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquide vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O(‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glaciale interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 e 9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquide vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion d18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion d18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glaciale interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4-5 C°. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

Use of Recombinant Virus Replicon Particles for Vaccination against Mycobacterium ulcerans Disease.

Buruli ulcer, caused by infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans, is a necrotizing disease of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, which is most prevalent in rural regions of West African countries. The majority of clinical presentations seen in patients are ulcers on limbs that can be treated by eight weeks of antibiotic therapy. Nevertheless, scarring and permanent disabilities occur frequently and Buruli ulcer still causes high morbidity. A vaccine against the disease is so far not available but would be of great benefit if used for prophylaxis as well as therapy. In the present study, vesicular stomatitis virus-based RNA replicon particles encoding the M. ulcerans proteins MUL2232 and MUL3720 were generated and the expression of the recombinant antigens characterized in vitro. Immunisation of mice with the recombinant replicon particles elicited antibodies that reacted with the endogenous antigens of M. ulcerans cells. A prime-boost immunization regimen with MUL2232-recombinant replicon particles and recombinant MUL2232 protein induced a strong immune response but only slightly reduced bacterial multiplication in a mouse model of M. ulcerans infection. We conclude that a monovalent vaccine based on the MUL2232 antigen will probably not sufficiently control M. ulcerans infection in humans.

Bacillus anthracis Diversity and Geographic Potential across Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad: Further Support of a Novel West African Lineage.

Zoonoses, diseases affecting both humans and animals, can exert tremendous pressures on human and veterinary health systems, particularly in resource limited countries. Anthrax is one such zoonosis of concern and is a disease requiring greater public health attention in Nigeria. Here we describe the genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Nigeria and compare it to Chad, Cameroon and a broader global dataset based on the multiple locus variable number tandem repeat (MLVA-25) genetic typing system. Nigerian B. anthracis isolates had identical MLVA genotypes and could only be resolved by measuring highly mutable single nucleotide repeats (SNRs). The Nigerian MLVA genotype was identical or highly genetically similar to those in the neighboring countries, confirming the strains belong to this unique West African lineage. Interestingly, sequence data from a Nigerian isolate shares the anthrose deficient genotypes previously described for strains in this region, which may be associated with vaccine evasion. Strains in this study were isolated over six decades, indicating a high level of temporal strain stability regionally. Ecological niche models were used to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen for all three countries. We describe a west-east habitat corridor through northern Nigeria extending into Chad and Cameroon. Ecological niche models and genetic results show B. anthracis to be ecologically established in Nigeria. These findings expand our understanding of the global B. anthracis population structure and can guide regional anthrax surveillance and control planning.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Distribution and variability of deformed wing virus of honeybees (Apis mellifera) in the Middle East and North Africa.

Three hundred eleven honeybee samples from twelve countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Yemen, Palestine and Sudan) were analyzed for the presence of deformed wing virus (DWV). The prevalence of DWV throughout the MENA region was pervasive, but variable. The highest prevalence was found in Lebanon and Syria, with prevalence dropping in Palestine, Jordan and Egypt before increasing slightly moving westwards to Algeria and Morocco Phylogenetic analysis of a 194 nucleotide section of the DWV Lp gene did not identify any significant phylogenetic resolution among the samples, although the sequences did show consistent regional clustering, including an interesting geographic gradient from Morocco through North Africa to Jordan and Syria. The sequences revealed several clear variability hotspots in the deduced amino acid sequence, that furthermore showed some patterns of regional identity. Furthermore, the sequence variants from the Middle East and North Africa appear more numerous and diverse than those from Europe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

HIV infection, viral hepatitis and liver fibrosis among prison inmates in West Africa.

BACKGROUND Prisoners represent a vulnerable population for blood-borne and sexually transmitted infections which can potentially lead to liver fibrosis and ultimately cirrhosis. However, little is known about the prevalence of liver fibrosis and associated risk factors among inmates in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS Screening of liver fibrosis was undertaken in a randomly selected sample of male inmates incarcerated in Lome, Togo and in Dakar, Senegal using transient elastography. A liver stiffness measurement ≥9.5 KPa was retained to define the presence of a severe liver fibrosis. All included inmates were also screened for HIV, Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection. Substances abuse including alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use were assessed during face-to-face interviews. Odds Ratio (OR) estimates were computed with their 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) to identify factors associated with severe liver fibrosis. RESULTS Overall, 680 inmates were included with a median age of 30 years [interquartile range: 24-35]. The prevalence of severe fibrosis was 3.1 % (4.9 % in Lome and 1.2 % in Dakar). Infections with HIV, HBV and HCV were identified in 2.6 %, 12.5 % and 0.5 % of inmates, respectively. Factors associated with a severe liver fibrosis were HIV infection (OR = 7.6; CI 1.8-32.1), HBV infection (OR = 4.8; CI 1.8-12.8), HCV infection (OR = 52.6; CI 4.1-673.8), use of traditional medicines (OR = 3.7; CI 1.4-10.1) and being incarcerated in Lome (OR = 3.3; CI 1.1-9.8) compared to Dakar. CONCLUSIONS HIV infection and viral hepatitis infections were identified as important and independent determinants of severe liver fibrosis. While access to active antiviral therapies against HIV and viral hepatitis expands in Africa, adapted strategies for the monitoring of liver disease need to be explored, especially in vulnerable populations such as inmates.