Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

The origin of the European Medieval Warm Period"

Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer "Medieval Warm Period" in Europe. Those two relatively mild periods were separated by a rather cold era, often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Our modelling results suggest that the warm summer conditions during the early second millennium compared to the climate background state of the 13th–18th century are due to a large extent to the long term cooling induced by changes in land-use in Europe. During the last 200 years, the effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, which was partly levelled off by that of sulphate aerosols, has dominated the climate history over Europe in summer. This induces a clear warming during the last 200 years, allowing summer temperature during the last 25 years to reach back the values simulated for the early second millennium. Volcanic and solar forcing plays a weaker role in this comparison between the last 25 years of the 20th century and the early second millennium. Our hypothesis appears consistent with proxy records but modelling results have to be weighted against the existing uncertainties in the external forcing factors, in particular related to land-use changes, and against the uncertainty of the regional climate sensitivity. Evidence for winter is more equivocal than for summer. The forced response in the model displays a clear temperature maximum at the end of the 20th century. However, the uncertainties are too large to state that this period is the warmest of the past millennium in Europe during winter.

Quantitative high-resolution warm season rainfall recorded in varved sediments of Lake Oeschinen, northern Swiss Alps: calibration and validation AD 1901–2008

High-resolution, well-calibrated records of lake sediments are critically important for quantitative climate reconstructions, but they remain a methodological and analytical challenge. While several comprehensive paleotemperature reconstructions have been developed across Europe, only a few quantitative high-resolution studies exist for precipitation. Here we present a calibration and verification study of lithoclastic sediment proxies from proglacial Lake Oeschinen (46°30′N, 7°44′E, 1,580 m a.s.l., north–west Swiss Alps) that are sensitive to rainfall for the period AD 1901–2008. We collected two sediment cores, one in 2007 and another in 2011. The sediments are characterized by two facies: (A) mm-laminated clastic varves and (B) turbidites. The annual character of the laminae couplets was confirmed by radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs) and independent flood-layer chronomarkers. Individual varves consist of a dark sand-size spring-summer layer enriched in siliciclastic minerals and a lighter clay-size calcite-rich winter layer. Three subtypes of varves are distinguished: Type I with a 1–1.5 mm fining upward sequence; Type II with a distinct fine-sand base up to 3 mm thick; and Type III containing multiple internal microlaminae caused by individual summer rainstorm deposits. Delta-fan surface samples and sediment trap data fingerprint different sediment source areas and transport processes from the watershed and confirm the instant response of sediment flux to rainfall and erosion. Based on a highly accurate, precise and reproducible chronology, we demonstrate that sediment accumulation (varve thickness) is a quantitative predictor for cumulative boreal alpine spring (May–June) and spring/summer (May–August) rainfall (rMJ = 0.71, rMJJA = 0.60, p < 0.01). Bootstrap-based verification of the calibration model reveals a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPMJ = 32.7 mm, RMSEPMJJA = 57.8 mm) which is on the order of 10–13 % of mean MJ and MJJA cumulative precipitation, respectively. These results highlight the potential of the Lake Oeschinen sediments for high-resolution reconstructions of past rainfall conditions in the northern Swiss Alps, central and eastern France and south-west Germany.

Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

Swiss tree rings reveal warm and wet summers during medieval times

We present a 1200 year drought reconstruction for the European Alpine region based on carbon isotope variations of tree rings from living larch trees and historic timber. The carbon isotope fractionation at the study site is sensitive to summer precipitation, temperature, and irradiance, resulting in a stable and high correlation with a drought index for interannual to decadal frequencies and possibly beyond (r(2)=0.58 for 1901-2004, July/August). When combining this information with maximum latewood density-derived summer temperature, a strongly reduced occurrence of summer droughts during the warm A.D. 900-1200 period is evident, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), with a shift to colder and drier conditions for the subsequent centuries. The warm-wet MCA contrasts strongly with the climate of the drought-prone warm phase of the recent decades, indicating different forcing mechanism for these two warm periods and pointing to beneficial conditions for agriculture and human well-being during the MCA in this region.

On the Co-Occurrence of Warm Conveyor Belt Outflows and PV Streamers*

The co-occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones, and stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers, indicators for breaking Rossby waves on the tropopause, is investigated for a 21-yr period in the Northern Hemisphere using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB outflows and PV streamers are respectively identified as two- and three-dimensional objects and tracked during their life cycle. PV streamers are more frequent than WCB outflows and nearly 15% of all PV streamers co-occur with WCBs during their life cycle, whereas about 60% of all WCB outflows co-occur with PV streamers. Co-occurrences are most frequent over the North Atlantic and North Pacific in spring and winter. WCB outflows are often located upstream of the PV streamers and form earlier, indicating the importance of diabatic processes for downstream Rossby wave breaking. Less frequently, PV streamers occur first, leading to the formation of new WCBs.

Efficacy of mechanical postconditioning following warm, global ischaemia depends on circulating fatty acid levels in an isolated, working rat heart model†

OBJECTIVES The number of heart transplantations is limited by donor organ availability. Donation after circulatory determination of death (DCDD) could significantly improve graft availability; however, organs undergo warm ischaemia followed by reperfusion, leading to tissue damage. Laboratory studies suggest that mechanical postconditioning [(MPC); brief, intermittent periods of ischaemia at the onset of reperfusion] can limit reperfusion injury; however, clinical translation has been disappointing. We hypothesized that MPC-induced cardioprotection depends on fatty acid levels at reperfusion. METHODS Experiments were performed with an isolated rat heart model of DCDD. Hearts of male Wistar rats (n = 42) underwent working-mode perfusion for 20 min (baseline), 27 min of global ischaemia and 60 min reperfusion with or without MPC (two cycles of 30 s reperfusion/30 s ischaemia) in the presence or absence of high fat [(HF); 1.2 mM palmitate]. Haemodynamic parameters, necrosis factors and oxygen consumption (O2C) were assessed. Recovery rate was calculated as the value at 60 min reperfusion expressed as a percentage of the mean baseline value. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to provide an overview of differences between experimental groups, and pairwise comparisons were performed to compare specific time points of interest for parameters with significant overall results. RESULTS Percent recovery of left ventricular (LV) work [developed pressure (DP)-heart rate product] at 60 min reperfusion was higher in hearts reperfused without fat versus with fat (58 ± 8 vs 23 ± 26%, P < 0.01) in the absence of MPC. In the absence of fat, MPC did not affect post-ischaemic haemodynamic recovery. Among the hearts reperfused with HF, two significantly different subgroups emerged according to recovery of LV work: low recovery (LoR) and high recovery (HiR) subgroups. At 60 min reperfusion, recovery was increased with MPC versus no MPC for LV work (79 ± 6 vs 55 ± 7, respectively; P < 0.05) in HiR subgroups and for DP (40 ± 27 vs 4 ± 2%), dP/dtmax (37 ± 24 vs 5 ± 3%) and dP/dtmin (33 ± 21 vs 5 ± 4%; P < 0.01 for all) in LoR subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Effects of MPC depend on energy substrate availability; MPC increased recovery of LV work in the presence, but not in the absence, of HF. Controlled reperfusion may be useful for therapeutic strategies aimed at improving post-ischaemic recovery of cardiac DCDD grafts, and ultimately in increasing donor heart availability.

Warm Breze from the Starboard Bow: a new Population of neutral Helium in the Heliosphere

We investigate the signals from neutral helium atoms observed in situ from Earth orbit in 2010 by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). The full helium signal observed during the 2010 observation season can be explained as a superposition of pristine neutral interstellar He gas and an additional population of neutral helium that we call the Warm Breeze. The Warm Breeze is approximately 2 times slower and 2.5 times warmer than the primary interstellar He population, and its density in front of the heliosphere is ~7% that of the neutral interstellar helium. The inflow direction of the Warm Breeze differs by ~19° from the inflow direction of interstellar gas. The Warm Breeze seems to be a long-term, perhaps permanent feature of the heliospheric environment. It has not been detected earlier because it is strongly ionized inside the heliosphere. This effect brings it below the threshold of detection via pickup ion and heliospheric backscatter glow observations, as well as by the direct sampling of GAS/Ulysses. We discuss possible sources for the Warm Breeze, including (1) the secondary population of interstellar helium, created via charge exchange and perhaps elastic scattering of neutral interstellar He atoms on interstellar He+ ions in the outer heliosheath, or (2) a gust of interstellar He originating from a hypothetic wave train in the Local Interstellar Cloud. A secondary population is expected from models, but the characteristics of the Warm Breeze do not fully conform to modeling results. If, nevertheless, this is the explanation, IBEX-Lo observations of the Warm Breeze provide key insights into the physical state of plasma in the outer heliosheath. If the second hypothesis is true, the source is likely to be located within a few thousand AU from the Sun, which is the propagation range of possible gusts of interstellar neutral helium with the Warm Breeze characteristics against dissipation via elastic scattering in the Local Cloud. Whatever the nature of the Warm Breeze, its discovery exposes a critical new feature of our heliospheric environment.