Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

Conservation of the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus in Spain (1966–2011): a bibliometric review of threats, research and adaptive management

Detecting and quantifying threats and researching and implementing management actions are key to improving the conservation status of endangered species. Bibliometric analysis can constitute a useful tool for the evaluation of such questions from a long-term perspective. Taking as a case study the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus in Spain, we tested relationships between population dynamics, research efforts, existing threats and conservation milestones. The population growth of the species (from 206 pairs in 1976 to 2,068 in 2011) was parallelled by the increase in the total number of publications, the number of articles in SCI journals and the number of published works dealing with aspects of conservation, threats and management. These results are discussed in terms of cause-effect relationships taking into account that the influence of other non-mutually exclusive factors could also probably explain such associations. Similarly, we analysed the trend of the Cinereous Vulture breeding population with respect to different threats and indices of food availability, obtaining a positive correlation with the increase in big-game hunting bags in Spain. With respect to conservation milestones, we concluded that the current situation is positive in terms of the protection of the species and its habitat, with the situation in relation to food availability being unclear. Finally, we reviewed the main conservation actions that have been taken for the species in Spain and how these have been progressively modified based on new scientific and technical evidence, as an example of adaptive management applied to conservation.

Seropositivity and Risk Factors Associated with Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Wild Birds from Spain

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic intracellular protozoan parasite of worldwide distribution that infects many species of warm-blooded animals, including birds. To date, there is scant information about the seropositivity of T. gondii and the risk factors associated with T. gondii infection in wild bird populations. In the present study, T. gondii infection was evaluated on sera obtained from 1079 wild birds belonging to 56 species (including Falconiformes (n = 610), Strigiformes (n = 260), Ciconiiformes (n = 156), Gruiformes (n = 21), and other orders (n = 32), from different areas of Spain. Antibodies to T. gondii (modified agglutination test, MAT titer ≥1:25) were found in 282 (26.1%, IC95%:23.5–28.7) of the 1079 birds. This study constitute the first extensive survey in wild birds species in Spain and reports for the first time T. gondii antibodies in the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus), short-toed snake-eagle (Circaetus gallicus), Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata), golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus), osprey (Pandion haliaetus), Montagu's harrier (Circus pygargus), Western marsh-harrier (Circus aeruginosus), peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), long-eared owl (Asio otus), common scops owl (Otus scops), Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia), white stork (Ciconia ciconia), grey heron (Ardea cinerea), common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus); in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) “vulnerable” Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti), lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) and great bustard (Otis tarda); and in the IUCN “near threatened” red kite (Milvus milvus). The highest seropositivity by species was observed in the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) (68.1%, 98 of 144). The main risk factors associated with T. gondii seropositivity in wild birds were age and diet, with the highest exposure in older animals and in carnivorous wild birds. The results showed that T. gondii infection is widespread and can be at a high level in many wild birds in Spain, most likely related to their feeding behaviour.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Man-induced activities modify demographic parameters in a long-lived species: effects of poisoning and health policies

Recent changes in sanitary policies within the European Union (EU) concerning disposal of carcasses of domestic animals and the increase of non-natural mortality factors, such as illegal poisoning, are threatening European vultures. However, the effects of anthropogenic activities on demographic parameters are poorly studied. Using a long-term study (1994–2011) of the threatened Pyrenean Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus population, we assess the variation in the proportion of breeding pairs, egg-laying dates, clutch size, breeding success, and survival following a sharp reduction in food availability in 2005 due to the application of restrictive sanitary policies decreasing livestock carcass availability. We found a delay in laying dates and a regressive trend in clutch size, breeding success, and survival following policy change. The maintenance of specific supplementary feeding stations for Bearded Vultures probably reduced the negative effects of illegal poisoning and food shortages, which mainly affected subadult survival. A drop in food availability may have produced changes in demographic parameters and an increase in mortality due to an increased exposure to contaminated food. As a result, supplementary feeding as a precautionary measure can be a useful tool to reduce illegal poisoning and declines in demographic parameters until previous food availability scenarios are achieved. This study shows how anthropogenic activities through human health regulations that affect habitat quality can suddenly modify demographic parameters in long-lived species, including those, such as survival, with high sensitivity to population growth rate.

Quaternary refugia of the sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.): an extended palynological approach

Knowledge about the glacial refugia of the thermophilous European Castanea sativa Mill. (sweet chestnut) is still inadequate. Its original range of distribution has been masked by strong human impact. Moreover, under natural conditions the species was probably admixed with other taxa (such as Quercus, Fraxinus, Fagus, Tilia) and thus possibly represented by low percentages in pollen records. In this paper we try to overcome the difficulties related to the scarcity and irregularity of chestnut pollen records by considering 1471 sites and extending the palynological approach to develop a Castanea refugium probability index (IRP), aimed at detecting possible chestnut refugia where chestnuts survived during the last glaciation. The results are in close agreement with the current literature on the refugia of other thermophilous European trees. The few divergences are most probably due to the large amount of new data integrated in this study, rather than to fundamental disagreements about data and data interpretation. The main chestnut refugia are located in the Transcaucasian region, north-western Anatolia, the hinterland of the Tyrrhenian coast from Liguria to Lazio along the Apennine range, the region around Lago di Monticchio (Monte Vulture) in southern Italy, and the Cantabrian coast on the Iberian peninsula. Despite the high likelihood of Castanea refugia in the Balkan Peninsula and north-eastern Italy (Colli Euganei, Monti Berici, Emilia-Romagna) as suggested by the IRP, additional palaeobotanical investigations are needed to assess whether these regions effectively sheltered chestnut during the last glaciation. Other regions, such as the Isère Département in France, the region across north-west Portugal and Galicia, and the hilly region along the Mediterranean coast of Syria and Lebanon were classified as areas of medium refugium probability. Our results reveal an unexpected spatial richness of potential Castanea refugia. It is likely that other European trees had similar distribution ranges during the last glaciation. It is thus conceivable that shelter zones with favourable microclimates were probably more numerous and more widely dispersed across Europe than so far assumed. In the future, more attention should be paid to pollen traces of sporadic taxa thought to have disappeared from a given area during the last glacial and post-glacial period.