Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Prognostic relevance of coronary collateral function: confounded or causal relationship?

OBJECTIVE To expand the limited information on the prognostic impact of quantitatively obtained collateral function in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and to estimate causality of such a relation. DESIGN Prospective cohort study with long-term observation of clinical outcome. SETTING University Hospital. PATIENTS One thousand one hundred and eighty-one patients with chronic stable CAD undergoing 1771 quantitative, coronary pressure-derived collateral flow index measurements, as obtained during a 1-min coronary balloon occlusion (CFI is the ratio between mean distal coronary occlusive pressure and mean aortic pressure both subtracted by central venous pressure). Subgroup of 152 patients included in randomised trials on the longitudinal effect of different arteriogenic protocols on CFI. INTERVENTIONS Collection of long-term follow-up information on clinical outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac events. RESULTS Cumulative 15-year survival rate was 48% in patients with CFI<0.25 and 65% in the group with CFI≥0.25 (p=0.0057). Cumulative 10-year survival rate was 75% in patients without arteriogenic therapy and 88% (p=0.0482) in the group with arteriogenic therapy and showing a significant increase in CFI at follow-up. By proportional hazard analysis, the following variables predicted increased all-cause mortality: age, low CFI, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure and number of vessels with CAD. CONCLUSIONS A well-functioning coronary collateral circulation independently predicts lowered mortality in patients with chronic CAD. This relation appears to be causal, because augmented collateral function by arteriogenic therapy is associated with prolonged survival.

Occurrence and Genetic Characteristics of Third-Generation Cephalosporin-Resistant Escherichia coli in Swiss Retail Meat

Prevalence and genetic relatedness were determined for third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli (3GC-R-Ec) detected in Swiss beef, veal, pork, and poultry retail meat. Samples from meat-packing plants (MPPs) processing 70% of the slaughtered animals in Switzerland were purchased at different intervals between April and June 2013 and analyzed. Sixty-nine 3GC-R-Ec isolates were obtained and characterized by microarray, PCR/DNA sequencing, Multi Locus Sequence Typing (MLST), and plasmid replicon typing. Plasmids of selected strains were transformed by electroporation into E. coli TOP10 cells and analyzed by plasmid MLST. The prevalence of 3GC-R-Ec was 73.3% in chicken and 2% in beef meat. No 3GC-R-Ec were found in pork and veal. Overall, the blaCTX-M-1 (79.4%), blaCMY-2 (17.6%), blaCMY-4 (1.5%), and blaSHV-12 (1.5%) β-lactamase genes were detected, as well as other genes conferring resistance to chloramphenicol (cmlA1-like), sulfonamides (sul), tetracycline (tet), and trimethoprim (dfrA). The 3GC-R-Ec from chicken meat often harbored virulence genes associated with avian pathogens. Plasmid incompatibility (Inc) groups IncI1, IncFIB, IncFII, and IncB/O were the most frequent. A high rate of clonality (e.g., ST1304, ST38, and ST93) among isolates from the same MPPs suggests that strains persist at the plant and spread to meat at the carcass-processing stage. Additionally, the presence of the blaCTX-M-1 gene on an IncI1 plasmid sequence type 3 (IncI1/pST3) in genetically diverse strains indicates interstrain spread of an epidemic plasmid. The blaCMY-2 and blaCMY-4 genes were located on IncB/O plasmids. This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of 3GC-R-Ec in meat in Switzerland. It demonstrates the need for monitoring contaminants and for the adaptation of the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point concept to avoid the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria through the food chain.

Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Meta-analysis and dose-response metaregression: circulating insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and mortality

Context: IGF-I plays a central role in metabolism and growth regulation. High IGF-I levels are associated with increased cancer risk and low IGF-I levels with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Objective: Our objective was to determine the relationship between circulating IGF-I levels and mortality in the general population using random-effects meta-analysis and dose-response metaregression. Data Sources: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library from 1985 to September 2010 to identify relevant studies. Study Selection: Population-based cohort studies and (nested) case-control studies reporting on the relation between circulating IGF-I and mortality were assessed for eligibility. Data Extraction: Data extraction was performed by two investigators independently, using a standardized data extraction sheet. Data Synthesis: Twelve studies, with 14,906 participants, were included. Overall, risk of bias was limited. Mortality in subjects with low or high IGF-I levels was compared with mid-centile reference categories. All-cause mortality was increased in subjects with low as well as high IGF-I, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.27 (95% CI = 1.08–1.49) and HR of 1.18 (95% CI = 1.04–1.34), respectively. Dose-response metaregression showed a U-shaped relation of IGF-I and all-cause mortality (P = 0.003). The predicted HR for the increase in mortality comparing the 10th IGF-I with the 50th percentile was 1.56 (95% CI = 1.31–1.86); the predicted HR comparing the 90th with the 50th percentile was 1.29 (95% CI = 1.06–1.58). A U-shaped relationship was present for both cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions: Both low and high IGF-I concentrations are associated with increased mortality in the general population.

Intravaginal practices, bacterial vaginosis, and HIV infection in women: individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Identifying modifiable factors that increase women's vulnerability to HIV is a critical step in developing effective female-initiated prevention interventions. The primary objective of this study was to pool individual participant data from prospective longitudinal studies to investigate the association between intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary objectives were to investigate associations between intravaginal practices and disrupted vaginal flora; and between disrupted vaginal flora and HIV acquisition. Methods and Findings We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 13 prospective cohort studies involving 14,874 women, of whom 791 acquired HIV infection during 21,218 woman years of follow-up. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The level of between-study heterogeneity was low in all analyses (I2 values 0.0%–16.1%). Intravaginal use of cloth or paper (pooled adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.83), insertion of products to dry or tighten the vagina (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00–1.71), and intravaginal cleaning with soap (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53) remained associated with HIV acquisition after controlling for age, marital status, and number of sex partners in the past 3 months. Intravaginal cleaning with soap was also associated with the development of intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis in women with normal vaginal flora at baseline (pooled adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.04–1.47). Use of cloth or paper was not associated with the development of disrupted vaginal flora. Intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis were each associated with HIV acquisition in multivariable models when measured at baseline (aHR 1.54 and 1.69, p<0.001) or at the visit before the estimated date of HIV infection (aHR 1.41 and 1.53, p<0.001), respectively. Conclusions This study provides evidence to suggest that some intravaginal practices increase the risk of HIV acquisition but a direct causal pathway linking intravaginal cleaning with soap, disruption of vaginal flora, and HIV acquisition has not yet been demonstrated. More consistency in the definition and measurement of specific intravaginal practices is warranted so that the effects of specific intravaginal practices and products can be further elucidated.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Rates of disease progression according to initial highly active antiretroviral therapy regimen: a collaborative analysis of 12 prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: No large clinical end-point trials have been conducted comparing regimens among human immunodeficiency virus type 1-positive persons starting antiretroviral therapy. We examined clinical progression according to initial regimen in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, which is based on 12 European and North American cohort studies. METHODS: We analyzed progression to death from any cause and to AIDS or death (AIDS/death), comparing efavirenz (EFV), nevirapine (NVP), nelfinavir, idinavir, ritonavir (RTV), RTV-boosted protease inhibitors (PIs), saquinavir, and abacavir. We also compared nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor pairs: zidovudine/lamivudine (AZT/3TC), stavudine (D4T)/3TC, D4T/didanosine (DDI), and others. RESULTS: A total of 17,666 treatment-naive patients, 55,622 person-years at risk, 1,617 new AIDS events, and 895 deaths were analyzed. Compared with EFV, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for AIDS/death was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.60) for NVP, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01-1.71) for RTV, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.15-1.81) for RTV-boosted PIs. For death, the adjusted HR for NVP was 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16-2.36). The adjusted HR for death for D4T/3TC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.14-1.59), compared with AZT/3TC. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes may vary across initial regimens. Results are observational and may have been affected by bias due to unmeasured or residual confounding. There is a need for large, randomized, clinical end-point trials.

Are beta-blockers needed in patients receiving spironolactone for severe chronic heart failure? An analysis of the COPERNICUS study

BACKGROUND: The beneficial effects of beta-blockers and aldosterone receptor antagonists are now well established in patients with severe systolic chronic heart failure (CHF). However, it is unclear whether beta-blockers are able to provide additional benefit in patients already receiving aldosterone antagonists. We therefore examined this question in the COPERNICUS study of 2289 patients with severe CHF receiving the beta1-beta2/alpha1 blocker carvedilol compared with placebo. METHODS: Patients were divided post hoc into subgroups according to whether they were receiving spironolactone (n = 445) or not (n = 1844) at baseline. Consistency of the effect of carvedilol versus placebo was examined for these subgroups with respect to the predefined end points of all-cause mortality, death or CHF-related hospitalizations, death or cardiovascular hospitalizations, and death or all-cause hospitalizations. RESULTS: The beneficial effect of carvedilol was similar among patients who were or were not receiving spironolactone for each of the 4 efficacy measures. For all-cause mortality, the Cox model hazard ratio for carvedilol compared with placebo was 0.65 (95% CI 0.36-1.15) in patients receiving spironolactone and 0.65 (0.51-0.83) in patients not receiving spironolactone. Hazard ratios for death or all-cause hospitalization were 0.76 (0.55-1.05) versus 0.76 (0.66-0.88); for death or cardiovascular hospitalization, 0.61 (0.42-0.89) versus 0.75 (0.64-0.88); and for death or CHF hospitalization, 0.63 (0.43-0.94) versus 0.70 (0.59-0.84), in patients receiving and not receiving spironolactone, respectively. The safety and tolerability of treatment with carvedilol were also similar, regardless of background spironolactone. CONCLUSION: Carvedilol remained clinically efficacious in the COPERNICUS study of patients with severe CHF when added to background spironolactone in patients who were practically all receiving angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (or angiotensin II antagonist) therapy. Therefore, the use of spironolactone in patients with severe CHF does not obviate the necessity of additional treatment that interferes with the adverse effects of sympathetic activation, specifically beta-blockade.

CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase as predictors for breast cancer recurrence: a combined analysis of seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the ability of CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) to predict breast cancer recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials were combined. The primary end point was relapse-free survival (RFS) (time from randomization to first breast cancer recurrence), and analyses included 3953 patients with one or more CA15-3 and ALP measurement during their RFS period. CA15-3 was considered abnormal if >30 U/ml or >50% higher than the first value recorded; ALP was recorded as normal, abnormal, or equivocal. Cox proportional hazards models with a time-varying indicator for abnormal CA15-3 and/or ALP were utilized. RESULTS: Overall, 784 patients (20%) had a recurrence, before which 274 (35%) had one or more abnormal CA15-3 and 35 (4%) had one or more abnormal ALP. Risk of recurrence increased by 30% for patients with abnormal CA15-3 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30; P = 0.0005], and by 4% for those with abnormal ALP (HR = 1.04; P = 0.82). Recurrence risk was greatest for patients with either (HR = 2.40; P < 0.0001) and with both (HR = 4.69; P < 0.0001) biomarkers abnormal. ALP better predicted liver recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: CA15-3 was better able to predict breast cancer recurrence than ALP, but use of both biomarkers together provided a better early indicator of recurrence. Whether routine use of these biomarkers improves overall survival remains an open question.

A meta-analysis of 16 randomized trials of sirolimus-eluting stents versus paclitaxel-eluting stents in patients with coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES: Our purpose was to make a synthesis of the available evidence on the relative efficacy and safety of 2 drug-eluting stents (DES)--sirolimus-eluting stent (SES) and paclitaxel-eluting stent (PES)--in patients with coronary artery disease. BACKGROUND: It is not known whether there are differences in late outcomes between the 2 most commonly used DES: SES and PES. METHODS: Sixteen randomized trials of SES versus PES with a total number of 8,695 patients were included in this meta-analysis. A full set of individual outcome data from 5,562 patients was also available. Mean follow-up period ranged from 9 to 37 months. The primary efficacy end point was the need for reintervention (target lesion revascularization). The primary safety end point was stent thrombosis. Secondary end points were death and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI). RESULTS: No significant heterogeneity was found across trials. Compared with PES, SES significantly reduced the risk of reintervention (hazard ratio [HR] 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63 to 0.87, p < 0.001) and stent thrombosis (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.46 to 0.94, p = 0.02) without significantly impacting on the risk of death (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.74 to 1.13, p = 0.43) or MI (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.03, p = 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Sirolimus-eluting stents are superior to PES in terms of a significant reduction of the risk of reintervention and stent thrombosis. The risk of death was not significantly different between the 2 DES, but there was a trend toward a higher risk of MI with PES, especially after the first year from the procedure.

Drug eluting and bare metal stents in people with and without diabetes: collaborative network meta-analysis

Objective To compare the effectiveness and safety of three types of stents (sirolimus eluting, paclitaxel eluting, and bare metal) in people with and without diabetes mellitus. Design Collaborative network meta-analysis. Data sources Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), relevant websites, reference lists, conference abstracts, reviews, book chapters, and proceedings of advisory panels for the US Food and Drug Administration. Manufacturers and trialists provided additional data. Review methods Network meta-analysis with a mixed treatment comparison method to combine direct within trial comparisons between stents with indirect evidence from other trials while maintaining randomisation. Overall mortality was the primary safety end point, target lesion revascularisation the effectiveness end point. Results 35 trials in 3852 people with diabetes and 10 947 people without diabetes contributed to the analyses. Inconsistency of the network was substantial for overall mortality in people with diabetes and seemed to be related to the duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (P value for interaction 0.02). Restricting the analysis to trials with a duration of dual antiplatelet therapy of six months or more, inconsistency was reduced considerably and hazard ratios for overall mortality were near one for all comparisons in people with diabetes: sirolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents 0.88 (95% credibility interval 0.55 to 1.30), paclitaxel eluting stents compared with bare metal stents 0.91 (0.60 to 1.38), and sirolimus eluting stents compared with paclitaxel eluting stents 0.95 (0.63 to 1.43). In people without diabetes, hazard ratios were unaffected by the restriction. Both drug eluting stents were associated with a decrease in revascularisation rates compared with bare metal stents in people both with and without diabetes. Conclusion In trials that specified a duration of dual antiplatelet therapy of six months or more after stent implantation, drug eluting stents seemed safe and effective in people both with and without diabetes.

Prognostic importance of anaemia in HIV type-1-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: In HIV type-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prognostic value of haemoglobin when starting HAART, and of changes in haemoglobin levels, are not well defined. METHODS: We combined data from 10 prospective studies of 12,100 previously untreated individuals (25% women). A total of 4,222 patients (35%) were anaemic: 131 patients (1.1%) had severe (<8.0 g/dl), 1,120 (9%) had moderate (male 8.0-<11.0 g/dl and female 8.0- < 10.0 g/dl) and 2,971 (25%) had mild (male 11.0- < 13.0 g/ dl and female 10.0- < 12.0 g/dl) anaemia. We separately analysed progression to AIDS or death from baseline and from 6 months using Weibull models, adjusting for CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex and other variables. RESULTS: During 48,420 person-years of follow-up 1,448 patients developed at least one AIDS event and 857 patients died. Anaemia at baseline was independently associated with higher mortality: the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for mild anaemia was 1.42 (1.17-1.73), for moderate anaemia 2.56 (2.07-3.18) and for severe anaemia 5.26 (3.55-7.81). Corresponding figures for progression to AIDS were 1.60 (1.37-1.86), 2.00 (1.66-2.40) and 2.24 (1.46-3.42). At 6 months the prevalence of anaemia declined to 26%. Baseline anaemia continued to predict mortality (and to a lesser extent progression to AIDS) in patients with normal haemoglobin or mild anaemia at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia at the start of HAART is an important factor for short- and long-term prognosis, including in patients whose haemoglobin levels improved or normalized during the first 6 months of HAART.

Erythropoietin or Darbepoetin for patients with cancer--meta-analysis based on individual patient data

BACKGROUND: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) reduce anemia in cancer patients and may improve quality of life, but there are concerns that ESAs might increase mortality. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to examine the effect of ESAs and identify factors that modify the effects of ESAs on overall survival, progression free survival, thromboembolic and cardiovascular events as well as need for transfusions and other important safety and efficacy outcomes in cancer patients. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase and conference proceedings for eligible trials. Manufacturers of ESAs were contacted to identify additional trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials comparing epoetin or darbepoetin plus red blood cell transfusions (as necessary) versus red blood cell transfusions (as necessary) alone, to prevent or treat anemia in adult or pediatric cancer patients with or without concurrent antineoplastic therapy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing epoetin alpha, epoetin beta or darbepoetin alpha plus red blood cell transfusions versus transfusion alone, for prophylaxis or therapy of anemia while or after receiving anti-cancer treatment. Patient-level data were obtained and analyzed by independent statisticians at two academic departments, using fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analysis. Analyses were according to the intention-to-treat principle. Primary endpoints were on study mortality and overall survival during the longest available follow-up, regardless of anticancer treatment, and in patients receiving chemotherapy. Tests for interactions were used to identify differences in effects of ESAs on mortality across pre-specified subgroups. The present review reports only the results for the primary endpoint. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 13933 cancer patients from 53 trials were analyzed, 1530 patients died on-study and 4993 overall. ESAs increased on study mortality (combined hazard ratio [cHR] 1.17; 95% CI 1.06-1.30) and worsened overall survival (cHR 1.06; 95% CI 1.00-1.12), with little heterogeneity between trials (I(2) 0%, p=0.87 and I(2) 7.1%, p=0.33, respectively). Thirty-eight trials enrolled 10441 patients receiving chemotherapy. The cHR for on study mortality was 1.10 (95% CI 0.98-1.24) and 1.04; 95% CI 0.97-1.11) for overall survival. There was little evidence for a difference between trials of patients receiving different cancer treatments (P for interaction=0.42). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: ESA treatment in cancer patients increased on study mortality and worsened overall survival. For patients undergoing chemotherapy the increase was less pronounced, but an adverse effect could not be excluded.

Recombinant human erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and mortality in patients with cancer: a meta-analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents reduce anaemia in patients with cancer and could improve their quality of life, but these drugs might increase mortality. We therefore did a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials in which these drugs plus red blood cell transfusions were compared with transfusion alone for prophylaxis or treatment of anaemia in patients with cancer. METHODS: Data for patients treated with epoetin alfa, epoetin beta, or darbepoetin alfa were obtained and analysed by independent statisticians using fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analysis. Analyses were by intention to treat. Primary endpoints were mortality during the active study period and overall survival during the longest available follow-up, irrespective of anticancer treatment, and in patients given chemotherapy. Tests for interactions were used to identify differences in effects of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents on mortality across prespecified subgroups. FINDINGS: Data from a total of 13 933 patients with cancer in 53 trials were analysed. 1530 patients died during the active study period and 4993 overall. Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents increased mortality during the active study period (combined hazard ratio [cHR] 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.30) and worsened overall survival (1.06, 1.00-1.12), with little heterogeneity between trials (I(2) 0%, p=0.87 for mortality during the active study period, and I(2) 7.1%, p=0.33 for overall survival). 10 441 patients on chemotherapy were enrolled in 38 trials. The cHR for mortality during the active study period was 1.10 (0.98-1.24), and 1.04 (0.97-1.11) for overall survival. There was little evidence for a difference between trials of patients given different anticancer treatments (p for interaction=0.42). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in patients with cancer increased mortality during active study periods and worsened overall survival. The increased risk of death associated with treatment with these drugs should be balanced against their benefits. FUNDING: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Medical Faculty of University of Cologne, and Oncosuisse (Switzerland).