28 resultados para Uncertainty and disturbance

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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This study explores whether the high variability of vascular plant diversity among alpine plant communities can be explained by stress and/or disturbance intensities. Species numbers of 14 alpine plant communities were sampled in the Swiss Alps. To quantify the intensity of 13 stress and 6 disturbance factors potentially controlling plant life in these communities, a survey was conducted by asking numerous specialists in alpine vegetation to assess the importance of the different factors for each community. The estimated values were combined in stress- and disturbance-indices which were compared with diversity according to the Intermediate Stress Hypothesis, the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, and the Dynamic Equilibrium Model, respectively. Each of these theories explained a part of the variability in the species richness, but only the Dynamic Equilibrium Model provided a complete and consistent explanation. The last model suggests that community species richness within the alpine life zone is generally controlled by stress intensity. Disturbance and competition seem to play a secondary role by fine-tuning diversity in specific communities. As diversity is primarily limited by stress, a moderation of temperature-related stress factors, as a result of global warming, may cause a shift of the equilibrium between stress, disturbance, and competition in alpine ecosystems.

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Aims The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is among the most active areas of ecological research. Furthermore, enhancing the diversity of degraded ecosystems is a major goal in applied restoration ecology. In grasslands, many species may be locally absent due to dispersal or microsite limitation and may therefore profit from mechanical disturbance of the resident vegetation. We established a seed addition and disturbance experiment across several grassland sites of different land use to test whether plant diversity can be increased in these grasslands. Additionally, the experiment will allow us testing the consequences of increased plant diversity for ecosystem processes and for the diversity of other taxa in real-world ecosystems. Here we present details of the experimental design and report results from the first vegetation survey one year after disturbance and seed addition. Moreover, we tested whether the effects of seed addition and disturbance varied among grassland depending on their land use or pre-disturbance plant diversity. Methods A full-factorial experiment was installed in 73 grasslands in three regions across Germany. Grasslands were under regular agricultural use, but varied in the type and the intensity of management, thereby representing the range of management typical for large parts of Central Europe. The disturbance treatment consisted of disturbing the top 10 cm of the sward using a rotavator or rotary harrow. Seed addition consisted of sowing a high-diversity seed mixture of regional plant species. These species were all regionally present, but often locally absent, depending on the resident vegetation composition and richness of each grassland. Important findings One year after sward disturbance it had significantly increased cover of bare soil, seedling species richness and numbers of seedlings. Seed addition had increased plant species richness, but only in combination with sward disturbance. The increase in species richness, when both seed addition and disturbance was applied, was higher at high land-use intensity and low resident diversity. Thus, we show that at least the early recruitment of many species is possible also at high land-use intensity, indicating the potential to restore and enhance biodiversity of species-poor agricultural grasslands. Our newly established experiment provides a unique platform for broad-scale research on the land-use dependence of future trajectories of vegetation diversity and composition and their effects on ecosystem functioning.

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BACKGROUND: Radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) of mobile communication systems are widespread in the living environment, yet their effects on humans are uncertain despite a growing body of literature. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the influence of a Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) base station-like signal on well-being and cognitive performance in subjects with and without self-reported sensitivity to RF EMF. METHODS: We performed a controlled exposure experiment (45 min at an electric field strength of 0, 1, or 10 V/m, incident with a polarization of 45 degrees from the left back side of the subject, weekly intervals) in a randomized, double-blind crossover design. A total of 117 healthy subjects (33 self-reported sensitive, 84 nonsensitive subjects) participated in the study. We assessed well-being, perceived field strength, and cognitive performance with questionnaires and cognitive tasks and conducted statistical analyses using linear mixed models. Organ-specific and brain tissue-specific dosimetry including uncertainty and variation analysis was performed. RESULTS: In both groups, well-being and perceived field strength were not associated with actual exposure levels. We observed no consistent condition-induced changes in cognitive performance except for two marginal effects. At 10 V/m we observed a slight effect on speed in one of six tasks in the sensitive subjects and an effect on accuracy in another task in nonsensitive subjects. Both effects disappeared after multiple end point adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to a recent Dutch study, we could not confirm a short-term effect of UMTS base station-like exposure on well-being. The reported effects on brain functioning were marginal and may have occurred by chance. Peak spatial absorption in brain tissue was considerably smaller than during use of a mobile phone. No conclusions can be drawn regarding short-term effects of cell phone exposure or the effects of long-term base station-like exposure on human health.

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The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

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Most available studies of interconnected matrix porosity of crystalline rocks are based on laboratory investigations; that is, work on samples that have undergone stress relaxation and were affected by drilling and sample preparation. The extrapolation of the results to in situ conditions is therefore associated with considerable uncertainty, and this was the motivation to conduct the ‘in situ Connected Porosity’ experiment at the Grimsel Test Site (Central Swiss Alps). An acrylic resin doped with fluorescent agents was used to impregnate the microporous granitic matrix in situ around an injection borehole, and samples were obtained by overcoring. The 3-D structure of the porespace, represented by microcracks, was studied by U-stage fluorescence microscopy. Petrophysical methods, including the determination of porosity, permeability and P -wave velocity, were also applied. Investigations were conducted both on samples that were impregnated in situ and on non-impregnated samples, so that natural features could be distinguished from artefacts. The investigated deformed granites display complex microcrack populations representing a polyphase deformation at varying conditions. The crack population is dominated by open cleavage cracks in mica and grain boundary cracks. The porosity of non-impregnated samples lies slightly above 1 per cent, which is 2–2.5 times higher than the in situ porosity obtained for impregnated samples. Measurements of seismic velocities (Vp ) on spherical rock samples as a function of confining pressure, spatial direction and water saturation for both non-impregnated and impregnated samples provide further constraints on the distinction between natural and induced crack types. The main conclusions are that (1) an interconnected network of microcracks exists in the whole granitic matrix, irrespective of the distance to ductile and brittle shear zones, and (2) conventional laboratory methods overestimate the matrix porosity. Calculations of contaminant transport through fractured media often rely on matrix diffusion as a retardation mechanism.

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Although heterogeneity and time are central aspects of economic activity, it was predominantly the Austrian School of economics that emphasized these two aspects. In this paper we argue that the explicit consideration of heterogeneity and time is of increasing importance due to the increasing environmental and resource problems faced by humankind today. It is shown that neo-Austrian capital theory, which revived Austrian ideas employing a formal approach in the 1970s, is not only well suited to address issues of structural change and of accompanying unemployment induced by technical progress but also can be employed for an encompassing ecological-economic analysis demanded by ecological economics. However, complexity, uncertainty, and real ignorance limit the applicability of formal economic analysis. Therefore, we conclude that economic analysis has to be supplemented by considerations of political philosophy. Copyright 2006 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc..