Climate spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors

We introduce an algorithm (called REDFITmc2) for spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors. It is based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for unevenly spaced time series, in combination with the Welch's Overlapped Segment Averaging procedure, bootstrap bias correction and persistence estimation. The timescale errors are modelled parametrically and included in the simulations for determining (1) the upper levels of the spectrum of the red-noise AR(1) alternative and (2) the uncertainty of the frequency of a spectral peak. Application of REDFITmc2 to ice core and stalagmite records of palaeoclimate allowed a more realistic evaluation of spectral peaks than when ignoring this source of uncertainty. The results support qualitatively the intuition that stronger effects on the spectrum estimate (decreased detectability and increased frequency uncertainty) occur for higher frequencies. The surplus information brought by algorithm REDFITmc2 is that those effects are quantified. Regarding timescale construction, not only the fixpoints, dating errors and the functional form of the age-depth model play a role. Also the joint distribution of all time points (serial correlation, stratigraphic order) determines spectrum estimation.

Aircraft noise, air pollution, and mortality from myocardial infarction

Objective: Myocardial infarction has been associated with both transportation noise and air pollution. We examined residential exposure to aircraft noise and mortality from myocardial infarction, taking air pollution into account. Methods: We analyzed the Swiss National Cohort, which includes geocoded information on residence. Exposure to aircraft noise and air pollution was determined based on geospatial noise and air-pollution (PM10) models and distance to major roads. We used Cox proportional hazard models, with age as the timescale. We compared the risk of death across categories of A-weighted sound pressure levels (dB(A)) and by duration of living in exposed corridors, adjusting for PM10 levels, distance to major roads, sex, education, and socioeconomic position of the municipality. Results: We analyzed 4.6 million persons older than 30 years who were followed from near the end of 2000 through December 2005, including 15,532 deaths from myocardial infarction (ICD-10 codes I 21, I 22). Mortality increased with increasing level and duration of aircraft noise. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing ≥60 dB(A) with <45 dB(A) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval = 0.96-1.7) overall, and 1.5 (1.0-2.2) in persons who had lived at the same place for at least 15 years. None of the other endpoints (mortality from all causes, all circulatory disease, cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and lung cancer) was associated with aircraft noise. Conclusion: Aircraft noise was associated with mortality from myocardial infarction, with a dose-response relationship for level and duration of exposure. The association does not appear to be explained by exposure to particulate matter air pollution, education, or socioeconomic status of the municipality.

Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka) and characterized by short Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Recent and new results obtained on the EPICA and NorthGRIP ice cores now precisely describe the rapid variations of Antarctic and Greenland temperature during MIS 5 (73.5–123 ka), a time period corresponding to relatively high sea level. The results display a succession of abrupt events associated with long Greenland InterStadial phases (GIS) enabling us to highlight a sub-millennial scale climatic variability depicted by (i) short-lived and abrupt warming events preceding some GIS (precursor-type events) and (ii) abrupt warming events at the end of some GIS (rebound-type events). The occurrence of these sub-millennial scale events is suggested to be driven by the insolation at high northern latitudes together with the internal forcing of ice sheets. Thanks to a recent NorthGRIP-EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) common timescale over MIS 5, the bipolar sequence of climatic events can be established at millennial to sub-millennial timescale. This shows that for extraordinary long stadial durations the accompanying Antarctic warming amplitude cannot be described by a simple linear relationship between the two as expected from the bipolar seesaw concept. We also show that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period.

Sympatric colour polymorphisms associated with nonrandom gene flow in cichlid fish of Lake Victoria

Colour polymorphisms have fascinated evolutionary ecologists for a long time. Yet, knowledge on the mechanisms that allow their persistence is restricted to a handful of well-studied cases. We studied two species of Lake Victoria cichlid fish, Neochromis omnicaeruleus and Neochromis greenwoodi, exhibiting very similar sex-linked colour polymorphisms. The ecology and behaviour of one of these species is well studied, with colour-based mating and aggression preferences. Here, we ask whether the selection potentially resulting from female and male mating preferences and aggression biases reduces gene flow between the colour morphs and permits differentiation in traits other than colour. Over the past 14 years, the frequencies of colour morphs have somewhat oscillated, but there is no evidence for directional change, suggesting the colour polymorphism is persistent on an ecological timescale. We find limited evidence of ecomorphological differentiation between sympatric ancestral (plain) and derived (blotched) colour morphs. We also find significantly nonrandom genotypic assignment and an excess of linkage disequilibrium in the plain morph, which together with previous information on mating preferences suggests nonrandom mating between colour morphs. This, together with negative frequency-dependent sexual selection, found in previous studies, may facilitate maintenance of these polymorphisms in sympatry

The evolution of antennal courtship in diplazontine parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae, Diplazontinae)

Background As predicted by theory, traits associated with reproduction often evolve at a comparatively high speed. This is especially the case for courtship behaviour which plays a central role in reproductive isolation. On the other hand, courtship behavioural traits often involve morphological and behavioural adaptations in both sexes; this suggests that their evolution might be under severe constraints, for instance irreversibility of character loss. Here, we use a recently proposed method to retrieve data on a peculiar courtship behavioural trait, i.e. antennal coiling, for 56 species of diplazontine parasitoid wasps. On the basis of a well-resolved phylogeny, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of antennal coiling and associated morphological modifications to study the mode of evolution of this complex character system. Results Our study reveals a large variation in shape, location and ultra-structure of male-specific modifications on the antennae. As for antennal coiling, we find either single-coiling, double-coiling or the absence of coiling; each state is present in multiple genera. Using a model comparison approach, we show that the possession of antennal modifications is highly correlated with antennal coiling behaviour. Ancestral state reconstruction shows that both antennal modifications and antennal coiling are highly congruent with the molecular phylogeny, implying low levels of homoplasy and a comparatively low speed of evolution. Antennal coiling is lost on two independent occasions, and never reacquired. A zero rate of regaining antennal coiling is supported by maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Conclusions Our study provides the first comparative evidence for a tight correlation between male-specific antennal modifications and the use of the antennae during courtship. Antennal coiling in Diplazontinae evolved at a comparatively low rate, and was never reacquired in any of the studied taxa. This suggests that the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on the timescale examined here, and therefore that evolutionary constraints have greatly influenced the evolution of antennal courtship in this group of parasitoid wasps. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on larger timescales, and whether evolutionary constraints have influenced courtship behavioural traits in a similar way in other groups.

Late Quaternary paleosols and their paleoenvironmental significance along the Andean piedmont, Eastern Bolivia

The Andean piedmont of eastern Bolivia is situated at the southern margin of Amazonia characterized by an overall humid climate regime with a marked contrast between the rainy and dry seasons. The nearby Subandean foothills deliver abundant sandy sediments to the piedmont, leading to a complex array of sediments and paleosol horizons. Within this setting, the presented study analyzes four profiles of paleosol-sediment-sequences along incised ephemeral streams near Santa Cruz de la Sierra with a focus on past pedogenic variability in the context of the regional late Quaternary geomorphic and environmental evolution. Based on field observations, micromorphological analysis, geochemical and clay mineralogical data five classes of paleosol horizons could be distinguished. The individual paleosol horizons as well as the sediments, in which they developed, were interpreted regarding their paleoenvironmental significance, taking into consideration the various controls on soil formation with particular focus on changes of local environmental conditions through time. Thus, three different pathways of soil formation were established. On the late Quaternary timescale, the results suggest a strong relation between paleoenvironmental conditions (climate, vegetation etc.), soil environment (soil water flow, micro-environment) and the type of paleosol horizons developed in the study area. The formation of “red beds” (Bw horizons) implies very dry soil environments under dominantly dry conditions, which seem to have prevailed in the study area some time before ∼ 18 cal ka BP. Moderately dry but markedly seasonal environmental conditions with a long dry season and strong seasonal contrasts in soil water flow could explain the formation of moderately developed Bwt horizons around ∼ 18 cal ka BP and much of the mid-Holocene. The formation of Bt horizons and/or clay lamellae in relation to intense neoformation of clay and dominant clay illuviation by soil water points to wet conditions similar to today, which have probably prevailed in the study area before ∼ 8 cal ka BP and since ∼ 5 cal ka BP.

High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.

Linking brain connectivity across different time scales with electroencephalogram, functional magnetic resonance imaging, and diffusion tensor imaging

Structural and functional connectivity are intrinsic properties of the human brain and represent the amount of cognitive capacities of individual subjects. These connections are modulated due to development, learning, and disease. Momentary adaptations in functional connectivity alter the structural connections, which in turn affect the functional connectivity. Thus, structural and functional connectivity interact on a broad timescale. In this study, we aimed to explore distinct measures of connectivity assessed by functional magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging and their association to the dominant electroencephalogram oscillatory property at rest: the individual alpha frequency (IAF). We found that in 21 healthy young subjects, small intraindividual temporal IAF fluctuations were correlated to increased blood oxygenation level-dependent signal in brain areas associated to working memory functions and to the modulation of attention. These areas colocalized with functionally connected networks supporting the respective functions. Furthermore, subjects with higher IAF show increased fractional anisotropy values in fascicles connecting the above-mentioned areas and networks. Hence, due to a multimodal approach a consistent functionally and structurally connected network related to IAF was observed.

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic ‘ark’. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island.

Planet formation models: the interplay with the planetesimal disc

Context. According to the sequential accretion model (or core-nucleated accretion model), giant planet formation is based first on the formation of a solid core which, when massive enough, can gravitationally bind gas from the nebula to form the envelope. The most critical part of the model is the formation time of the core: to trigger the accretion of gas, the core has to grow up to several Earth masses before the gas component of the protoplanetary disc dissipates. Aims: We calculate planetary formation models including a detailed description of the dynamics of the planetesimal disc, taking into account both gas drag and excitation of forming planets. Methods: We computed the formation of planets, considering the oligarchic regime for the growth of the solid core. Embryos growing in the disc stir their neighbour planetesimals, exciting their relative velocities, which makes accretion more difficult. Here we introduce a more realistic treatment for the evolution of planetesimals' relative velocities, which directly impact on the formation timescale. For this, we computed the excitation state of planetesimals, as a result of stirring by forming planets, and gas-solid interactions. Results: We find that the formation of giant planets is favoured by the accretion of small planetesimals, as their random velocities are more easily damped by the gas drag of the nebula. Moreover, the capture radius of a protoplanet with a (tiny) envelope is also larger for small planetesimals. However, planets migrate as a result of disc-planet angular momentum exchange, with important consequences for their survival: due to the slow growth of a protoplanet in the oligarchic regime, rapid inward type I migration has important implications on intermediate-mass planets that have not yet started their runaway accretion phase of gas. Most of these planets are lost in the central star. Surviving planets have masses either below 10 M⊕ or above several Jupiter masses. Conclusions: To form giant planets before the dissipation of the disc, small planetesimals (~0.1 km) have to be the major contributors of the solid accretion process. However, the combination of oligarchic growth and fast inward migration leads to the absence of intermediate-mass planets. Other processes must therefore be at work to explain the population of extrasolar planets that are presently known.

Chronostratigraphy of the 600,000 year old continental record of Lake Van

Lake Van sediment cores from the Ahlat Ridge and Northern Basin drill sites of the ICDP project PALEOVAN contain a wealth of information about past environmental processes. The sedimentary sequence was dated using climatostratigraphic alignment, varve chronology, tephrostratigraphy, argon-argon single-crystal dating, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, and cosmogenic nuclides. Based on the lithostratigraphic framework, the different age constraints are compiled and a robust and precise chronology of the 600,000 year-old Lake Van record is constructed. Proxy records of total organic carbon content and sediment color, together with the calcium/potassium-ratios and arboreal pollen percentages of the 174-meter-long Ahlat Ridge record, mimic the Greenland isotope stratotype (NGRIP). Therefore, the proxy records are systematically aligned to the onsets of interstadials reflected in the NGRIP or synthesized Greenland ice-core stratigraphy. The chronology is constructed using 27 age control points derived from visual synchronization with the GICC05 timescale, an absolutely-dated speleothem record (e.g., Hulu, Sanbao, Linzhu cave) and the Epica Dome C timescale. In addition, the uppermost part of the sequence is complemented with four ages from Holocene varve chronology and two calibrated radiocarbon ages. Furthermore, nine argon-argon ages and a comparison of the relative paleointensity record of the magnetic field with reference curve PISO-1500 confirm the accuracy of the age model. Also the identification of the Laschamp event via measurements of 10Be in the sediment confirms the presented age model. The chronology of the Ahlat Ridge record is transferred to the 79-meter-long event-corrected composite record from the Northern Basin and supplemented by additional radiocarbon dating on organic marco-remains. The basal age of the Northern Basin record is estimated at ~90 ka. The variations of the time series of total organic carbon content, the Ca/K ratio, and the arboreal pollen percentages illustrate that the presented chronology and paleoclimate data are suited for reconstructions and modeling of the Quaternary and Pleistocene climate evolution in the Near East at millennial timescales. Furthermore, the chronology of the last 250 kyr can be used to test other dating techniques.