Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

PBDEs in the atmosphere over the Asian marginal seas, and the Indian and Atlantic oceans

Air samples were collected from Jan 16 to Mar 14, 2008 onboard the Oceanic II- The Scholar Ship which navigated an east–west transect from Shanghai to Cape Verde, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were analyzed in these samples. PBDE concentrations in the atmosphere over the open seas were influenced by proximity to source areas and land, and air mass origins. The concentrations of Σ21PBDEs over the East and South China Seas, the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean were 10.8 ± 6.13, 3.22 ± 1.57, 5.12 ± 3.56, and 2.87 ± 1.81 pg m−3, respectively. BDE-47 and -99 were the dominant congeners in all the samples, suggesting that the widely used commercial penta-BDE products were the original sources. Over some parts of Atlantic and Indian Ocean, daytime concentrations of BDE-47 and BDE-99 were higher than the concentrations at night. The strong atmospheric variability does not always coincide with a diurnal cycle, but the variability in air concentrations in such remote areas of the ocean remains strong. No significant trends were found for each of PBDE congener with latitude.

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet

This study presents a 5-yr climatology of 7-day back trajectories started from the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. These trajectories provide insight into the seasonally and regionally varying angular momentum and potential vorticity characteristics of the air parcels that end up in the subtropical jet. The trajectories reveal preferred pathways of the air parcels that reach the subtropical jet from the tropics and the extratropics and allow estimation of the tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet. The back trajectories were calculated 7 days back in time and started every 6 h from December 2005 to November 2010 using the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset as a basis. The trajectories were started from the 345-K isentrope in areas where the wind speed exceeded a seasonally varying threshold and where the wind shear was confined to upper levels. During winter, the South American continent, the Indian Ocean, and the Maritime Continent are preferred areas of ascent into the upper troposphere. From these areas, air parcels follow an anticyclonic pathway into the subtropical jet. During summer, the majority of air parcels ascend over the Himalayas and Southeast Asia. Angular momentum is overall well conserved for trajectories that reach the subtropical jet from the deep tropics. In winter and spring, the hemispheric-mean angular momentum loss amounts to approximately 6%; in summer, it amounts to approximately 18%; and in fall, it amounts to approximately 13%. This seasonal variability is confirmed using an independent potential vorticity–based method to estimate tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

On the seasonal variations of salinity of the tropical Atlantic mixed layer

The physical processes controlling the mixed layer salinity (MLS) seasonal budget in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. The analysis reveals that the MLS cycle is generally weak in comparison of individual physical processes entering in the budget because of strong compensation. In evaporative regions, around the surface salinity maxima, the ocean acts to freshen the mixed layer against the action of evaporation. Poleward of the southern SSS maxima, the freshening is ensured by geostrophic advection, the vertical salinity diffusion and, during winter, a dominant contribution of the convective entrainment. On the equatorward flanks of the SSS maxima, Ekman transport mainly contributes to supply freshwater from ITCZ regions while vertical salinity diffusion adds on the effect of evaporation. All these terms are phase locked through the effect of the wind. Under the seasonal march of the ITCZ and in coastal areas affected by river (7°S:15°N), the upper ocean freshening by precipitations and/or runoff is attenuated by vertical salinity diffusion. In the eastern equatorial regions, seasonal cycle of wind forced surface currents advect freshwaters, which are mixed with subsurface saline water because of the strong vertical turbulent diffusion. In all these regions, the vertical diffusion presents an important contribution to the MLS budget by providing, in general, an upwelling flux of salinity. It is generally due to vertical salinity gradient and mixing due to winds. Furthermore, in the equator where the vertical shear, associated to surface horizontal currents, is developed, the diffusion depends also on the sheared flow stability.