Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

Germania: l’indomabile trading state

Basato su interviste con i principali attori tedeschi e su un’analisi della letteratura, l’articolo analizza lo sviluppo recente dell’economia tedesca e la strategia tedesca nell’affrontare la crisi dell’eurozona. La Germania è uno stato commerciale (trading state), la cui crescita è fortemente trainata dalle esportazioni. Fino agli anni novanta, rigidità istituzionali forti, nel sistema di relazioni industriali e nel sistema di protezione sociale, contribuivano a conciliare lo sviluppo delle esportazioni con una crescita armonica dei consumi interni, contribuendo cosi a ingabbiare la «tigre» tedesca. A partire dagli anni novanta, sia le relazioni industriali sia la protezione sociale sono state fortemente liberalizzate, stimolando ulteriormente la competitività estera e indebolendo i consumi interni. Il modello economico tedesco, cosi come è venuto profilandosi negli ultimi dieci anni, è alla base delle politiche di austerità che la Germania impone all’Europa. Tali politiche sono fortemente condivise dai partiti politici, dagli attori sociali e dall’opinione pubblica, e le probabilità che la strategia tedesca cambi sono minime.

The Crisis and Germany: The Trading State Unleashed

Based on interviews with the main German actors and on secondary sources, the article examines the recent development of the German political economy, and the German strategy vis-à-vis the Euro zone. Germany is a trading state whose economic growth is strongly export-led. Until the years 1990s, strong institutional rigidities, both in industrial relations and in the welfare state, contributed to reconcile export growth with household consumption, thus keeping the German “tiger” on a leash. From the early 1990s on, however, both industrial relations and social protections have been strongly liberalized, thus further stimulating external competitiveness and reducing the role of consumption in the German growth model. The unleashed trading state shapes the German response to the Euro crisis and the austerity policies that Germany imposes to Europe. These policies are strongly supported by political parties, social actors, and public opinion in Germany, and the likelihood that they change in the near future is minimal.