Prediction and prevention of schizophrenia: what has been achieved and where to go next?

In modern medicine, vigorous efforts are being made in the prediction and prevention of diseases. Mental disorders are suitable candidates for the application of this program. The currently known neurobiological and psychosocial risk indicators for schizophrenia do not have a predictive power sufficient for selective prevention in asymptomatic patients at risk. However, once predictive basic and later pre-psychotic high risk symptoms of psychosis develop into the five-year initial prodrome, the impending outbreak of the disease can be predicted with high accuracy. Research findings suggest a differential strategy of indicated prevention with cognitive behavioral therapy in early initial prodromal states and low dosage atypical antipsychotics in late initial prodromal states. The most important future tasks are the improvement of the predictive power by risk enrichment and stratification, as well as the confirmation of the existing and the development of new prevention strategies, with a stronger focus on the etiology of the disorder. In addition, the prediction and prevention approach would benefit from the inclusion of risk symptoms in the DSM-5 criteria.

Bringing results to fruition through publication: An analysis of a peer-reviewed, open access and context-focused journal's editorial practice

When it comes to helping to shape sustainable development, research is most useful when it bridges the science–implementation/management gap and when it brings development specialists and researchers into a dialogue (Hurni et al. 2004); can a peer-reviewed journal contribute to this aim? In the classical system for validation and dissemination of scientific knowledge, journals focus on knowledge exchange within the academic community and do not specifically address a ‘life-world audience’. Within a North-South context, another knowledge divide is added: the peer review process excludes a large proportion of scientists from the South from participating in the production of scientific knowledge (Karlsson et al. 2007). Mountain Research and Development (MRD) is a journal whose mission is based on an editorial strategy to build the bridge between research and development and ensure that authors from the global South have access to knowledge production, ultimately with a view to supporting sustainable development in mountains. In doing so, MRD faces a number of challenges that we would like to discuss with the td-net community, after having presented our experience and strategy as editors of this journal. MRD was launched in 1981 by mountain researchers who wanted mountains to be included in the 1992 Rio process. In the late 1990s, MRD realized that the journal needed to go beyond addressing only the scientific community. It therefore launched a new section addressing a broader audience in 2000, with the aim of disseminating insights into, and recommendations for, the implementation of sustainable development in mountains. In 2006, we conducted a survey among MRD’s authors, reviewers, and readers (Wymann et al. 2007): respondents confirmed that MRD had succeeded in bridging the gap between research and development. But we realized that MRD could become an even more efficient tool for sustainability if development knowledge were validated: in 2009, we began submitting ‘development’ papers (‘transformation knowledge’) to external peer review of a kind different from the scientific-only peer review (for ‘systems knowledge’). At the same time, the journal became open access in order to increase the permeability between science and society, and ensure greater access for readers and authors in the South. We are currently rethinking our review process for development papers, with a view to creating more space for communication between science and society, and enhancing the co-production of knowledge (Roux 2008). Hopefully, these efforts will also contribute to the urgent debate on the ‘publication culture’ needed in transdisciplinary research (Kueffer et al. 2007).

Structural and procedural properties important in promoting bio-enterprises as alternative livelihoods to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods

Alternative livelihoods to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods are increasingly gaining attention in rural development but few empirical evidence exist on how to go about supporting such initiatives. As pastoral and agro-pastoral production conditions change due to various factors including market conditions, climate variability and change, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are increasingly faced with the challenge of finding alternative livelihoods. Bio-enterprises offer such alternatives or complementary activities for rural actors to adapt to changing socio-ecological conditions. This study examines the roles of bio-enterprise initiatives from a livelihood perspective and identifies the features important for such initiatives to reduce poverty and improve the adaptive capacities of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. It draws on four different bio-enterprise initiatives on agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods and on improved natural resources management (NRM) in the drylands of Kenya. Data were collected through interviews, focus group discussions, informal discussions and the study of reports. Results shows among other factors that diversification into enterprises requires cooperation among the stakeholders with their varying experiences in development, NRM and business development. Other factors such as sustained financial support, capacity development to survive the market introduction phase, as well as quantity and quality of the product, are critical. Mentoring proved to be a driver of success in some initiatives.

Urban Expansion and its impact on urban agriculture - remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley - Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel- oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwe llers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural - formal as well as informal - urbani- sation are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A mul- titemporal and multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualise the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the south of Dar Es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analysed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously, and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in- terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualise an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analysed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob- served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase the density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.

Apparent survival of the salamander

Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.

Comparison between two caller groups of a medical call centre in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: The incidence distribution of triage advice in the medical call centre Medi24 and the pattern of service utilisation were analysed with respect to two groups of callers with different insurance schemes. Individuals having contracted insurance of the Medi24 model could use the telephone consultation service of the medical call centre Medi24 (mainly part of the mandatory basic health insurance) voluntarily and free of charge whereas individuals holding an insurance policy of the Telmed model (special contract within the mandatory basic health insurance with a premium discount ranging from 8% to 12%) were obliged to have a telephone consultation before arranging an appointment with a medical doctor. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the medical call centre Medi24 based on all triage datasets of the Medi24 and Telmed groups collected during the one year period from July 1st 2005 to June 30th 2006. The distribution of the six different urgency levels within the two groups and their respective pattern of service utilisation was determined. In a multivariable logistic regression model the Odds Ratio for every enquiry originating from the Telmed group versus those originating from the Medi24 group was calculated. RESULTS: During a one-year period 48 388 triage requests reached the medical call centre Medi24, 56% derived from the Telmed group and 44% from the Medi24 group. Within the Medi24 group more than 25% of the individuals received self-care advice, within the Telmed group, on the other hand, only about 18% received such advice. In contrast, 27% of the Telmed triage requests but only 18% of the Medi24 triage requests resulted in the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor. The probability that an individual of the Telmed group obtained the advice to go to the accident and emergency department was lower than for an individual of the Medi24 group (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.99). Likewise, the probability of self-care advice was decreased in regard to the Medi24 group (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85). However, regarding the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor, the Telmed group was represented more frequently than the Medi24 group (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.28-1.44). CONCLUSION: In respect of the triage advice, the Telmed group differed significantly from the Medi24 group within all urgency levels. The differences between the two groups in respect of the advice given were still less pronounced than expected against the background of their different contract conditions and the disparate temporal pattern of utilisation. We interprete this finding with the fact that appraising the urgency of health problems appropriately seems to be very difficult for the majority of people seeking advice.

Falkland Island English

This chapter examines some of the grammatical variability and non-standardness found in the English of the Falkland Islands. The Falklands are an archipelago of over 700 islands located in the western South Atlantic Ocean, 480km off the east coast of Argentina. Although the population is small – around 3000 - the islands cover an area of over 12000km2 – slightly larger than Jamaica and half the size of Wales, making them, after Greenland, the most sparsely populated political entity in the world. In political terms, the Falklands are an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom. In contrast to the rural isolated image that the Falklands perhaps conjure up, the community is, in demographic terms, an urban and diverse one. Over 85% of the population living in the capital Stanley. The 2006 census (Government of the Falkland Islands 2007: 6) shows that 55% of the population were not born on the Islands, with the largest migrant groups coming from the UK, St Helena (another British Overseas Territory, located in the eastern South Atlantic), Chile and Australia. It also highlighted the fact that people born in 62 different countries were resident on the islands at the time (Pascoe and Pepper 2008: 38). By way of a comparison, only Monaco and Andorra, in Europe, have a higher proportion of their populations made up of migrants. In addition to the local Falkland population, there is a large military presence on the islands at the Royal Airforce Base at Mount Pleasant, 50km south-west of Stanley. The Head of State is the monarch of the UK, who is represented on the islands by a governor. The democratically elected 11-member Legislative Assembly is responsible for day-to-day government of the islands. The Falklands are perhaps most famous because of their 74 day occupation by Argentina in 1982. It is not appropriate here to go into detail about the dispute between the UK and Argentina about the sovereignty of the Islands. What is undisputed is that there has been a continuous Anglophone speech community on the islands since the early 1830s, making it one of the most recently developed ‘Inner Circle’ (Kachru 1985) Englishes in the world. This chapter examines the grammatical characteristics of Falkland Island English, drawn from a transcribed corpus of over 500,000 words of informal conversational speech, collected by Andrea Sudbury both in Stanley and in ‘Camp’ (the local name for the rest of the islands) (see Sudbury 2000, 2001 for more details about the methods used in the survey).

Handbook of LHC Higgs Cross Sections: 3. Higgs Properties. Report of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group

This Report summarizes the results of the activities in 2012 and the first half of 2013 of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. The main goal of the working group was to present the state of the art of Higgs Physics at the LHC, integrating all new results that have appeared in the last few years. This report follows the first working group report Handbook of LHC Higgs Cross Sections: 1. Inclusive Observables (CERN-2011-002) and the second working group report Handbook of LHC Higgs Cross Sections: 2. Differential Distributions (CERN-2012-002). After the discovery of a Higgs boson at the LHC in mid-2012 this report focuses on refined prediction of Standard Model (SM) Higgs phenomenology around the experimentally observed value of 125-126 GeV, refined predictions for heavy SM-like Higgs bosons as well as predictions in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and first steps to go beyond these models. The other main focus is on the extraction of the characteristics and properties of the newly discovered particle such as couplings to SM particles, spin and CP-quantum numbers etc.

Impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas

INTRODUCTION Out-migration from mountain areas is leaving behind half families and elderly to deal with managing the land alongside daily life challenges. A potential reduction of labour force as well as expertise on cropping practices, maintenance of terraces and irrigation canals, slope stabilization, grazing, forest and other land management practices are further challenged by changing climate conditions and increased environmental threats. An understanding of the resilience of managed land resources in order to enhance adaptation to environmental and socio-economic variability, and evidence of the impact of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) on the mitigation of environmental threats have so far not sufficiently been tackled. The study presented here aims to find out how land management in mountains is being affected by migration in the context of natural hazards and climate change in two study sites, namely Quillacollo District of Bolivia and Panchase area of Western Nepal, and which measures are needed to increase resilience of livelihoods and land management practices. The presentation includes draft results from first field work periods in both sites. A context of high vulnerability According to UNISDR, vulnerability is defined as “the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard”.Hazards are another threat affecting people’s livelihood in mountainous area. They can be either natural or human induced. Landslides, debris flow and flood are affecting peopleGood land management can significantly reduce occurrence of hazards. In the opposite bad land management or land abandonment can lead to negative consequences on the land, and thus again increase vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. METHODS The study integrates bio-physical and socio-economic data through a case study as well as a mapping approach. From the social sciences, well-tested participatory qualitative methodologies, typically used in Vulnerability and Capacity Analyses, such as semi-structured interviews with so-called ‘key informants’, transect walks, participatory risk and social resource mapping are applied. The bio-physical analysis of the current environmental conditions determining hazards and structural vulnerability are obtained from remote sensing analysis, field work studies, and GIS analysis The assessment of the consequences of migration in the area of origin is linked with a mapping and appraisal of land management practices (www.wocat.net, Schwilch et al., 2011). The WOCAT mapping tool (WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008) allows capturing the major land management practices / technologies, their spread, effectiveness and impact within a selected area. Data drawn from a variety of sources are compiled and harmonised by a team of experts, consisting of land degradation and conservation specialists working in consultation with land users from various backgrounds. The specialists’ and land users’ knowledge is combined with existing datasets and documents (maps, GIS layers, high-resolution satellite images, etc.) in workshops that are designed to build consensus regarding the variables used to assess land degradation and SLM. This process is also referred to as participatory expert assessment or consensus mapping. The WOCAT mapping and SLM documentation methodologies are used together with participatory mapping and other socio-economic data collection (interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, expert consultation) to combine information about migration types and land management issues. GIS and other spatial visualization tools (e.g. Google maps) will help to represent and understand these links. FIRST RESULTS Nepal In Nepal, migration is a common strategy to improve the livelihoods. Migrants are mostly men and they migrate to other Asian countries, first to India and then to the Gulf countries. Only a few women are migrating abroad. Women migrate essentially to main Nepali cities when they can afford it. Remittances are used primarily for food and education; however they are hardly used for agricultural purposes. Besides traditional agriculture being maintained, only few new practices are emerging, such as vegetable farming or agroforestry. The land abandonment is a growing consequence of outmigration, resulting in the spreading of invasive species. However, most impacts of migration on land management are not yet clear. Moreover, education is a major concern for the respondents; they want their children having a better education and get better opportunities. Linked to this, unemployment is another major concern of the respondents, which in turn is “solved” through outmigration. Bolivia Migration is a common livelihood strategy in Bolivia. In the area of study, whole families are migrating downward to the cities of the valleys or to other departments of Bolivia, especially to Chapare (tropics) for the coca production and to Santa Cruz. Some young people are migrating abroad, mostly to Argentina. There are few remittances and if those are sent to the families in the mountain areas, then they are mainly used for agriculture purpose. The impacts of migration on land management practices are not clear although there are some important aspects to be underlined. The people who move downward are still using their land and coming back during part of the week to work on it. As a consequence of this multi-residency, there is a tendency to reduce land management work or to change the way the land is used. As in Nepal, education is a very important issue in this area. There is no secondary school, and only one community has a primary school. After the 6th grade students have therefore to go down into the valley towns to study. The lack of basic education is pushing more and more people to move down and to leave the mountains. CONCLUSIONS This study is on-going, more data have to be collected to clearly assess the impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas. The first results of the study allow us to present a few interesting findings. The two case studies are very different, however in both areas, young people are not staying anymore in the mountains and leave behind half families and elderly to manage the land. Additionally in both cases education is a major reason for moving out, even though the causes are not always the same. More specifically, in the case of Nepal, the use of remittances underlines the fact that investment in agriculture is not the first choice of a family. In the case of Bolivia, some interesting findings showed that people continue to work on their lands even if they move downward. The further steps of the study will help to explore these interesting issues in more detail. REFERENCES Schwilch G., Bestelmeyer B., Bunning S., Critchley W., Herrick J., Kellner K., Liniger H.P., Nachtergaele F., Ritsema C.J., Schuster B., Tabo R., van Lynden G., Winslow M. 2011. Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management. Land Degradation & Development 22 (2), 214-225. Doi 10.1002/ldr.1040 WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008. A Questionnaire for Mapping Land Degradation and Sustainable Land Management. Liniger H.P., van Lynden G., Nachtergaele F., Schwilch G. (eds), Centre for Development and Environment, Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Berne

The Swiss Schools have been Governed by Local Lay Authorities

After the introduction of the liberal-democratic constitutions in the Swiss cantons in the first half of the 1830ies the grid of existing schools has been systemized and broadly expanded. The school systems have ever since been characterized by one key element: a special local authority type called „Schulkommission“ or „Schulpflege“. They take the form of committees consisting of laymen that are appointed by democratic elections like all the other executive bodies on the different federal levels in Switzerland. When it comes to their obligations and activities these community level school committees conform very much to the school boards in the American and Canadian school systems. They are accountable for the selection and supervision of the teachers. They approve decisions about the school careers of pupils and about curricular matters like the choice of school books. Normally their members are elected by the local voters for four year terms of office (reelection remains possible) and with regard to pedagogics they normally are non-professionals. The board members are responsible for classes and teachers assigned to them and they have to go to see them periodically. These visitations and the board meetings each month together with the teachers enable the board members to attain a deep insight into what happens in their schools over the course of their term of office. But they are confronted as laymen with a professional teaching staff and with educational experts in the public administration. Nevertheless this form of executive power by non-professionals is constitutive for the state governance in the Swiss as well as in other national political environments. It corresponds to the principles of subsidiarity and militia and therefore allows for a strong accentuation of liberty and the right of self-determination, two axioms at the very base of democratic federalist ideology. This governance architecture with this strong accent on local anchorage features substantial advantages for the legitimacy and acceptability of political and administrative decisions. And this is relevant especially in the educational area because the rearing of the offspring is a project of hope and, besides, quite costly. In the public opinion such supervision bodies staffed by laymen seem to have certain credibility advances in comparison with the professional administration. They are given credit to be capable of impeding the waste of common financial resources and of warranting the protection and the fostering of the community’s children at once. Especially because of their non-professional character they are trusted to be reliably immune against organizational blindness and they seem to be able to defend the interests of the local community against the standardization and centralization aspirations originating from the administrational expertocracy. In the paper these common rationales will be underpinned by results of a comprehensive historical analysis of the Session protocols of three Bernese school commissions from 1835 to 2005.

Dimensions of culture in intra-cultural comparisons: Individualism/collectivism and family-related values in three generations

The goal of the present study is to supplement inter-cultural comparison of values as a cultural dimension by intra-cultural comparisons, and to go beyond comparisons of single values representing cultural dimensions by studying value patterns on the individual level. Therefore, relationships among general (individualism, collectivism) and domain-specific (family- and child-related) values and the transmission of values in three generations of one family were analyzed. The sample consisted of 100 complete triads of three generations (grandmothers, mothers, and adolescents). The results showed that the individual value orientations of these three generations dif- fered in the expected direction. Individualistic values were more supported by the younger and less by the older generation. While individualism did not show significant relations to other specific values, collectivism was the most powerful dimension to predict family and child-related values. Individual- ism and collectivism clearly turned out as separate dimensions with different functions for the individual value system. The value structure of grandmoth- ers as compared to the younger generations showed more internal consistency. A relative transmission of values was obvious for the adjacent generations. The results are discussed from the perspective of cultural change and stability, and the relation among cultural dimensions and individual value orientations.

CAP Reform vs WTO: Crop Diversification or Crop Rotation? : Legal opinion prepared by Dr. Christian Häberli at the request of APRODEV, the Association of World Council of Churches related Development Organisations in Europe

The European Commission’s proposals for the Legislative Framework of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the period 2014-2020 include, inter alia, the introduction of a “strong greening component”. For the first time, all EU farmers in receipt of support are to “go beyond the requirements of cross compliance and deliver environmental and climate benefits as part of their everyday activities crop diversification as a contribution to all EU farmers in receipt of support go beyond the requirements of cross compliance and deliver environmental and climate benefits as part of their everyday activities.” In a legal opinion prepared at the request of APRODEV, the Association of World Council of Churches related Development Organisations in Europe (www.aprodev.eu), Christian Häberli examines the WTO implications of this proposal, as compared with an alternative proposal to rather link direct payments to crop rotation. The conclusions are twofold: 1. Crop rotation is at least as likely to be found Green Box-compatible as crop diversification. Moreover, it will be more difficult to argue that crop diversification is “not more than minimally production-distorting” because it entails for most farmers less cost and work. 2. Even if (either of the two cropping schemes) were to be found “amber”, the EU would not have to relinquish this conditionality. This is because the direct payments involved would in all likelihood not, together with the other price support instruments, exceed the amount available under the presently scheduled maximum.

Patterns of motor abilities and technical skills as predictors of success for young elite football players

Sport-motor tests play an important role in football talent selections. However, single tests represent only parts of the complex game performance. The best game performance therefore does not necessarily need to go hand in hand with the best results in all tests of a test battery. Considering the complexity of the game performance appropriately, a holistic perspective together with a person-oriented approach are applied. Thereby, systems consisting of several variables are identified and analysed in a longitudinal study. Following this idea, six sport-motor tests were aggregated into a subsystem. 106 young male elite football players were tested three times (2011, 2012, 2013; Mage, t2011=12.26, SD=0.29). One year later (2014) their performance level was enquired. Data were analysed using the LICUR method, a cluster analytical method. Four patterns were identified, which remained stable at all measuring points. The players frequently show intraindividual and structurally similar patterns over time. At the third measuring point, a pattern occurred out of which the players are significantly more likely to advance to the highest performance level one year later. This pattern appears consistently above average, but does not always show best test performances. The significantly frequent development along structurally stable patterns suggests a predictive validity of the subsystem sport-motor tests between the ages of 12 to 15. Above average, but not necessarily outstanding performances both in the motor abilities as well as in the football specific tests appears to be particularly promising. This finding emphasizes the need of a holistic perspective in the talent selection.

Urban expansion and its impact on urban agriculture – remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley – Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel-oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwellers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural, coupled with formal as well as infor-mal urbanization are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A multitemporal multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualize the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the South of Dar es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analyzed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in-terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualize an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analyzed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob-served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.