Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. Methods We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. Results The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

Insights into the timing of repeated testing after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis: data and modelling study

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal time interval for a repeated Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) test.

Predicting spike timing of neocortical pyramidal neurons by simple threshold models

Neurons generate spikes reliably with millisecond precision if driven by a fluctuating current--is it then possible to predict the spike timing knowing the input? We determined parameters of an adapting threshold model using data recorded in vitro from 24 layer 5 pyramidal neurons from rat somatosensory cortex, stimulated intracellularly by a fluctuating current simulating synaptic bombardment in vivo. The model generates output spikes whenever the membrane voltage (a filtered version of the input current) reaches a dynamic threshold. We find that for input currents with large fluctuation amplitude, up to 75% of the spike times can be predicted with a precision of +/-2 ms. Some of the intrinsic neuronal unreliability can be accounted for by a noisy threshold mechanism. Our results suggest that, under random current injection into the soma, (i) neuronal behavior in the subthreshold regime can be well approximated by a simple linear filter; and (ii) most of the nonlinearities are captured by a simple threshold process.

PVR recurrence and the timing of silicon oil removal

BACKGROUND: Following vitrectomy for PVR-associated retinal detachment, placement of an encircling band, filling with silicone oil (SO) and successful retinal reattachment, a recurrence of PVR can develop. Retinal redetachment after SO removal is usually due to secondary or residual PVR. We wanted to ascertain whether the anatomical and functional outcomes of surgery in patients with a reattached retina and recurrent PVR can be improved by delaying the removal of SO. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 112 consecutive patients with PVR-associated retinal detachment who had undergone vitrectomy with SO filling, were monitored for at least 6 months after SO removal. Prior to SO removal, the retina posterior to the encircling band had to be completely reattached. Patients who developed PVR after SO filling were divided into two groups according to the duration of SO retention: 12 - 18 months (group 2: n = 48); > 18 months (group 3: n = 21). Individuals without PVR recurrence after SO filling and in whom the SO was consequently removed within 4 - 12 months served as control (group 1: n = 43). Anatomical success, intraocular pressure (IOP) and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) served as the primary clinical outcome parameters. RESULTS: Six months after SO removal, the anatomical success rates (86.3 %, 88.8 % and 84.6 %, in groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively; log rank = 0.794) and the BCVAs (p = 0.861) were comparable in the three groups. Mean IOP (p = 0.766), and the frequency of complications such as PVR recurrence (p = 0.936), bullous keratopathy (p = 0.981) and macular pucker (p = 0.943) were likewise similar. Patients in whom SO was retained for more than 18 months had the highest IOPs and required the heaviest dosage with anti-glaucoma drugs. CONCLUSIONS: In patients who develop a recurrence of PVR after vitrectomy and SO filling the surgeon can observe and treat retinal changes for up to 18 months without impairing the anatomical and functional outcomes. The retention of SO for more than 18 months does not improve the anatomical outcome. However, it can impair the functional outcome by precipitating the development of a persisting secondary glaucoma.

The timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis

OBJECTIVE: To obtain precise information on the optimal time window for surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Although perioperative antimicrobial prophylaxis is a well-established strategy for reducing the risk of surgical site infections (SSI), the optimal timing for this procedure has yet to be precisely determined. Under today's recommendations, antibiotics may be administered within the final 2 hours before skin incision, ideally as close to incision time as possible. METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study at Basel University Hospital we analyzed the incidence of SSI by the timing of antimicrobial prophylaxis in a consecutive series of 3836 surgical procedures. Surgical wounds and resulting infections were assessed to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention standards. Antimicrobial prophylaxis consisted in single-shot administration of 1.5 g of cefuroxime (plus 500 mg of metronidazole in colorectal surgery). RESULTS: The overall SSI rate was 4.7% (180 of 3836). In 49% of all procedures antimicrobial prophylaxis was administered within the final half hour. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed a significant increase in the odds of SSI when antimicrobial prophylaxis was administered less than 30 minutes (crude odds ratio = 2.01; adjusted odds ratio = 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.8; P < 0.001) and 120 to 60 minutes (crude odds ratio = 1.75; adjusted odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.9; P = 0.035) as compared with the reference interval of 59 to 30 minutes before incision. CONCLUSIONS: When cefuroxime is used as a prophylactic antibiotic, administration 59 to 30 minutes before incision is more effective than administration during the last half hour.

Using PSA to guide timing of androgen deprivation in patients with T0-4 N0-2 M0 prostate cancer not suitable for local curative treatment (EORTC 30891)

OBJECTIVE: EORTC trial 30891 compared immediate versus deferred androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in T0-4 N0-2 M0 prostate cancer (PCa). Many patients randomly assigned to deferred ADT did not require ADT because they died before becoming symptomatic. The question arises whether serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels may be used to decide when to initiate ADT in PCa not suitable for local curative treatment. METHODS: PSA data at baseline, PSA doubling time (PSADT) in patients receiving no ADT, and time to PSA relapse (>2 ng/ml) in patients whose PSA declined to <2 ng/ml within the first year after immediate ADT were analyzed in 939 eligible patients randomly assigned to immediate (n=468) or deferred ADT (n=471). RESULTS: In both arms, patients with a baseline PSA>50 ng/ml were at a>3.5-fold higher risk to die of PCa than patients with a baseline PSAof PCa death was approximately 7.5-fold higher in patients with PSADT<12 mo than in patients with PSADT>12 mo. Time to PSA relapse after response to immediate ADT correlated significantly with baseline PSA, suggesting that baseline PSA may also reflect disease aggressiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a baseline PSA>50 ng/ml and/or a PSADT<12 mo were at increased risk to die from PCa and might have benefited from immediate ADT, whereas patients with a baseline PSA<50 ng/ml and a slow PSADT (>12 mo) were likely to die of causes unrelated to PCa, and thus could be spared the burden of immediate ADT.