A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

Accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide tests to exclude congestive heart failure: systematic review of test accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

Avoidant coping partially mediates the relationship between patient problem behaviors and depressive symptoms in spousal Alzheimer caregivers

OBJECTIVE: Caring for a loved one with Alzheimer disease is a highly stressful experience that is associated with significant depressive symptoms. Previous studies indicate a positive association between problem behaviors in patients with Alzheimer disease (e.g., repeating questions, restlessness, and agitation) and depressive symptoms in their caregivers. Moreover, the extant literature indicates a robust negative relationship between escape-avoidance coping (i.e., avoiding people, wishing the situation would go away) and psychiatric well-being. The purpose of this study was to test a mediational model of the associations between patient problem behaviors, escape-avoidance coping, and depressive symptoms in Alzheimer caregivers. METHODS: Ninety-five spousal caregivers (mean age: 72 years) completed measures assessing their loved ones' frequency of problem behaviors, escape-avoidance coping, and depressive symptoms. A mediational model was tested to determine if escape-avoidant coping partially mediated the relationship between patient problem behaviors and caregiver depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Patient problem behaviors were positively associated with escape-avoidance coping (beta = 0.38, p < 0.01) and depressive symptoms (beta = 0.26, p < 0.05). Escape-avoidance coping was positively associated with depressive symptoms (beta = 0.33, p < 0.01). In a final regression analysis, the impact of problem behaviors on depressive symptoms was less after controlling for escape-avoidance coping. Sobel's test confirmed that escape-avoidance coping significantly mediated the relationship between problem behaviors and depressive symptoms (z = 2.07, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Escape-avoidance coping partially mediates the association between patient problem behaviors and depressive symptoms among elderly caregivers of spouses with dementia. This finding provides a specific target for psychosocial interventions for caregivers.

Comparison of interferon-gamma release assay versus tuberculin skin test for tuberculosis screening in inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVES: Reactivation of latent tuberculosis (TB) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients treated with antitumor necrosis factor-alpha medication is a serious problem. Currently, TB screening includes chest x-rays and a tuberculin skin test (TST). The interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-G-IT) shows better specificity for diagnosing TB than the skin test. This study evaluates the two test methods among IBD patients. METHODS: Both TST and IGRA were performed on 212 subjects (114 Crohn's disease, 44 ulcerative colitis, 10 indeterminate colitis, 44 controls). RESULTS: Eighty-one percent of IBD patients were under immunosuppressive therapy; 71% of all subjects were vaccinated with Bacille Calmette Guérin; 18% of IBD patients and 43% of controls tested positive with the skin test (P < 0.0001). Vaccinated controls tested positive more often with the skin test (52%) than did vaccinated IBD patients (23%) (P = 0.011). Significantly fewer immunosuppressed patients tested positive with the skin test than did patients not receiving therapy (P = 0.007); 8% of patients tested positive with the QFT-G-IT test (14/168) compared to 9% (4/44) of controls. Test agreement was significantly higher in the controls (P = 0.044) compared to the IBD group. CONCLUSIONS: Agreement between the two test methods is poor in IBD patients. In contrast to the QFT-G-IT test, the TST is negatively influenced by immunosuppressive medication and vaccination status, and should thus be replaced by the IGRA for TB screening in immunosuppressed patients having IBD.

Test Blueprints - Exposing Side Effects in Execution Traces to Support Writing Unit Tests

Writing unit tests for legacy systems is a key maintenance task. When writing tests for object-oriented programs, objects need to be set up and the expected effects of executing the unit under test need to be verified. If developers lack internal knowledge of a system, the task of writing tests is non-trivial. To address this problem, we propose an approach that exposes side effects detected in example runs of the system and uses these side effects to guide the developer when writing tests. We introduce a visualization called Test Blueprint, through which we identify what the required fixture is and what assertions are needed to verify the correct behavior of a unit under test. The dynamic analysis technique that underlies our approach is based on both tracing method executions and on tracking the flow of objects at runtime. To demonstrate the usefulness of our approach we present results from two case studies.

Cognitive inertia and the implicit association test

The authors review the implicit association test (IAT), its use in marketing, and the methodology and validity issues that surround it. They focus on a validity problem that has not been investigated previously, namely, the impact of cognitive inertia on IAT effects. Cognitive inertia refers to the difficulty in switching from one categorization rule to another, which causes IAT effects to depend on the order of administration of the two IAT blocks. In Study 1, the authors observe an IAT effect when the compatible block precedes the incompatible block but not when it follows the incompatible block. In Studies 2 and 3, the IAT effect changes its sign when the order of the blocks reverses. Cognitive inertia distorts individual IAT scores and diminishes the correlations between IAT scores and predictor variables when the block order is counterbalanced between subjects. Study 4 shows that counterbalancing the block order repeatedly within subjects can eliminate cognitive inertia effects on the individual level. The authors conclude that researchers should either interpret IAT scores at the aggregate level or, if individual IAT scores are of interest, counterbalance the block order repeatedly within subjects.

Can a novel web-based computer test predict poor simulated driving performance? A pilot study with healthy and cognitive-impaired participants

BACKGROUND Driving a car is a complex instrumental activity of daily living and driving performance is very sensitive to cognitive impairment. The assessment of driving-relevant cognition in older drivers is challenging and requires reliable and valid tests with good sensitivity and specificity to predict safe driving. Driving simulators can be used to test fitness to drive. Several studies have found strong correlation between driving simulator performance and on-the-road driving. However, access to driving simulators is restricted to specialists and simulators are too expensive, large, and complex to allow easy access to older drivers or physicians advising them. An easily accessible, Web-based, cognitive screening test could offer a solution to this problem. The World Wide Web allows easy dissemination of the test software and implementation of the scoring algorithm on a central server, allowing generation of a dynamically growing database with normative values and ensures that all users have access to the same up-to-date normative values. OBJECTIVE In this pilot study, we present the novel Web-based Bern Cognitive Screening Test (wBCST) and investigate whether it can predict poor simulated driving performance in healthy and cognitive-impaired participants. METHODS The wBCST performance and simulated driving performance have been analyzed in 26 healthy younger and 44 healthy older participants as well as in 10 older participants with cognitive impairment. Correlations between the two tests were calculated. Also, simulated driving performance was used to group the participants into good performers (n=70) and poor performers (n=10). A receiver-operating characteristic analysis was calculated to determine sensitivity and specificity of the wBCST in predicting simulated driving performance. RESULTS The mean wBCST score of the participants with poor simulated driving performance was reduced by 52%, compared to participants with good simulated driving performance (P<.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80 with a 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.92. CONCLUSIONS When selecting a 75% test score as the cutoff, the novel test has 83% sensitivity, 70% specificity, and 81% efficiency, which are good values for a screening test. Overall, in this pilot study, the novel Web-based computer test appears to be a promising tool for supporting clinicians in fitness-to-drive assessments of older drivers. The Web-based distribution and scoring on a central computer will facilitate further evaluation of the novel test setup. We expect that in the near future, Web-based computer tests will become a valid and reliable tool for clinicians, for example, when assessing fitness to drive in older drivers.

A robust reference signal generator for synchronized ventricular assist devices

Ventricular assist devices (VADs) are blood pumps that offer an option to support the circulation of patients with severe heart failure. Since a failing heart has a remaining pump function, its interaction with the VAD influences the hemodynamics. Ideally, the heart's action is taken into account for actuating the device such that the device is synchronized to the natural cardiac cycle. To realize this in practice, a reliable real-time algorithm for the automatic synchronization of the VAD to the heart rate is required. This paper defines the tasks such an algorithm needs to fulfill: the automatic detection of irregular heart beats and the feedback control of the phase shift between the systolic phases of the heart and the assist device. We demonstrate a possible solution to these problems and analyze its performance in two steps. First, the algorithm is tested using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. Second, the algorithm is implemented in a controller for a pulsatile and a continuous-flow VAD. These devices are connected to a hybrid mock circulation where three test scenarios are evaluated. The proposed algorithm ensures a reliable synchronization of the VAD to the heart cycle, while being insensitive to irregularities in the heart rate.

Alleviation of chronic venous leg ulcers with a hand-held dielectric barrier discharge plasma generator (PlasmaDerm(®) VU-2010): results of a monocentric, two-armed, open, prospective, randomized and controlled trial (NCT01415622).

BACKGROUND Cold atmospheric plasma (CAP, i.e. ionized air) is an innovating promising tool in reducing bacteria. OBJECTIVE We conducted the first clinical trial with the novel PlasmaDerm(®) VU-2010 device to assess safety and, as secondary endpoints, efficacy and applicability of 45 s/cm(2) cold atmospheric plasma as add-on therapy against chronic venous leg ulcers. METHODS From April 2011 to April 2012, 14 patients were randomized to receive standardized modern wound care (n = 7) or plasma in addition to standard care (n = 7) 3× per week for 8 weeks. The ulcer size was determined weekly (Visitrak(®) , photodocumentation). Bacterial load (bacterial swabs, contact agar plates) and pain during and between treatments (visual analogue scales) were assessed. Patients and doctors rated the applicability of plasma (questionnaires). RESULTS The plasma treatment was safe with 2 SAEs and 77 AEs approximately equally distributed among both groups (P = 0.77 and P = 1.0, Fisher's exact test). Two AEs probably related to plasma. Plasma treatment resulted in a significant reduction in lesional bacterial load (P = 0.04, Wilcoxon signed-rank test). A more than 50% ulcer size reduction was noted in 5/7 and 4/7 patients in the standard and plasma groups, respectively, and a greater size reduction occurred in the plasma group (plasma -5.3 cm(2) , standard: -3.4 cm(2) ) (non-significant, P = 0.42, log-rank test). The only ulcer that closed after 7 weeks received plasma. Patients in the plasma group quoted less pain compared to the control group. The plasma applicability was not rated inferior to standard wound care (P = 0.94, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). Physicians would recommend (P = 0.06, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test) or repeat (P = 0.08, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test) plasma treatment by trend. CONCLUSION Cold atmospheric plasma displays favourable antibacterial effects. We demonstrated that plasma treatment with the PlasmaDerm(®) VU-2010 device is safe and effective in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers. Thus, larger controlled trials and the development of devices with larger application surfaces are warranted.