Benford's Law and Fraud Detection. Facts and Legends

Is Benford's law a good instrument to detect fraud in reports of statistical and scientific data? For a valid test the probability of "false positives" and "false negatives" has to be low. However, it is very doubtful whether the Benford distribution is an appropriate tool to discriminate between manipulated and non-manipulated estimates. Further research should focus more on the validity of the test and test results should be interpreted more carefully.

Delinquenz als soziales Handeln. Eine erweiterte Modellierung und empirische Überprüfung

Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird aus Perspektive der strukturell-individualistischen Handlungstheorie versucht, kriminelles Handeln als soziales Handeln zu modellieren. Die subjektiv rationale Entscheidung für oder gegen delinquentes Handeln erfolgt in Abhängigkeit von Restriktionen, Gelegenheiten, Assoziationen sowie von normativen Überzeugungen und moralischen Bewertungen von Straftaten. Die empirische Anwendung mithilfe einer Bevölkerungsumfrage in Bern liefert für intendierte Straftaten wie Ladendiebstahl, Schwarzfahren, Versicherungsbetrug und Steuerhinterziehung theoriekonsistente Ergebnisse.

More Is Not Always Better: An Experimental Individual-Level Validation of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Social desirability and the fear of sanctions can deter survey respondents from responding truthfully to sensitive questions. Self-reports on norm breaking behavior such as shoplifting, non-voting, or tax evasion may therefore be subject to considerable misreporting. To mitigate such misreporting, various indirect techniques for asking sensitive questions, such as the randomized response technique (RRT), have been proposed in the literature. In our study, we evaluate the viability of several variants of the RRT, including the recently proposed crosswise-model RRT, by comparing respondents’ self-reports on cheating in dice games to actual cheating behavior, thereby distinguishing between false negatives (underreporting) and false positives (overreporting). The study has been implemented as an online survey on Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 6,505). Our results indicate that the forced-response RRT and the unrelated-question RRT, as implemented in our survey, fail to reduce the level of misreporting compared to conventional direct questioning. For the crosswise-model RRT, we do observe a reduction of false negatives (that is, an increase in the proportion of cheaters who admit having cheated). At the same time, however, there is an increase in false positives (that is, an increase in non-cheaters who falsely admit having cheated). Overall, our findings suggest that none of the implemented sensitive questions techniques substantially outperforms direct questioning. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the importance of distinguishing false negatives and false positives when evaluating the validity of sensitive question techniques.

Strain-specific spleen remodelling in Plasmodium yoelii infections in Balb/c mice facilitates adherence and spleen macrophage-clearance escape

Knowledge of the dynamic features of the processes driven by malaria parasites in the spleen is lacking. To gain insight into the function and structure of the spleen in malaria, we have implemented intravital microscopy and magnetic resonance imaging of the mouse spleen in experimental infections with non-lethal (17X) and lethal (17XL) Plasmodium yoelii strains. Noticeably, there was higher parasite accumulation, reduced motility, loss of directionality, increased residence time and altered magnetic resonance only in the spleens of mice infected with 17X. Moreover, these differences were associated with the formation of a strain-specific induced spleen tissue barrier of fibroblastic origin, with red pulp macrophage-clearance evasion and with adherence of infected red blood cells to this barrier. Our data suggest that in this reticulocyte-prone non-lethal rodent malaria model, passage through the spleen is different from what is known in other Plasmodium species and open new avenues for functional/structural studies of this lymphoid organ in malaria.

Climate Change and International Law. Exploring the Linkages Between Human Rights, Environment, Trade and Investment

Mapping the relevant principles and norms of international law, the paper discusses scientific evidence and identifies current legal foundations of climate change mitigation adaptation and communication in international environmental law, human rights protection and international trade regulation in WTO law. It briefly discusses the evolution and architecture of relevant multilateral environmental agreements, in particular the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It discusses the potential role of human rights in identifying pertinent goals and values of mitigation and adaptation and eventually turns to principles and rules of international trade regulation and investment protection which are likely to be of crucial importance should the advent of a new multilateral agreement fail to materialize. The economic and legal relevance of rules on tariffs, border tax adjustment and subsidies, services and intellectual property and investment law are discussed in relation to the production, supply and use of energy. Moreover, lessons from trade negotiations may be drawn for negotiations of future environmental instruments. The paper offers a survey of the main interacting areas of public international law and discusses the intricate interaction of all these components informing climate change mitigation, adaptation and communication in international law in light of an emerging doctrine of multilayered governance. It seeks to contribute to greater coherence of what today is highly fragmented and rarely discussed in an overall context. The paper argues that trade regulation will be of critical importance in assessing domestic policies and potential trade remedies offer powerful incentives for all nations alike to participate in a multilateral framework defining appropriate goals and principles.

Executive compensation and executive incentive problems: an empirical analysis

The question of whether the design of the corporate executive pay package reflects an attempt to reduce agency costs between shareholders an managers is adressed. The components of senior executive pay are found to vary systematically across firms in a manner that cannot easily be explained by tax effects, and which would indicate that individual elements of pay are aimed at controlling for limited horizon and risk exposure problems. Managerial decisions and the structure of managerial pay therefore appear to be interrelated.

The Determinants of Personal Income Tax Progressivity Around the Globe

This paper utilizes a novel database collected by the authors to document features of the progressivity of personal income tax systems across 209 countries for the years 1980-2009. We measure progressivity in several ways. First, we associate it with the increase in effective average (marginal) tax rates between a wage of zero and ten times the average wage in a country. Second, we consider the curvature of the tax schedule expressed as the difference between the effective average (marginal) tax schedule from a wage of zero to ten times the average wage and a linear average tax schedule and, alternatively, the diference between the effective average (marginal) tax schedule from the minimum positive taxable income, to ten times the average wage as opposed to a linear average tax schedule. Moreover, the paper assesses patterns regarding the conditional correlation of country-specifc tax progressivity measures with a host of economic and political country-specific characteristics and find the labor supply elasticity and the income replacement rates for the unemployed to be key determinants of progressivity around the globe, in line with economic theory.

Applying the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process in Cognitive Cities

This paper introduces a mobile application (app) as the first part of an interactive framework. The framework enhances the inter-action between cities and their citizens, introducing the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) as a potential information acquisition method to improve existing citizen management en-deavors for cognitive cities. Citizen management is enhanced by advanced visualization using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM). The presented app takes fuzziness into account in the constant inter-action and continuous development of communication between cities or between certain of their entities (e.g., the tax authority) and their citizens. A transportation use case is implemented for didactical reasons.

Physiologic cold shock of Moraxella catarrhalis affects the expression of genes involved in the iron acquisition, serum resistance and immune evasion

Background Moraxella catarrhalis, a major nasopharyngeal pathogen of the human respiratory tract, is exposed to rapid downshifts of environmental temperature when humans breathe cold air. It was previously shown that the prevalence of pharyngeal colonization and respiratory tract infections caused by M. catarrhalis are greatest in winter. The aim of this study was to investigate how M. catarrhalis uses the physiologic exposure to cold air to upregulate pivotal survival systems in the pharynx that may contribute to M. catarrhalis virulence. Results A 26°C cold shock induces the expression of genes involved in transferrin and lactoferrin acquisition, and enhances binding of these proteins on the surface of M. catarrhalis. Exposure of M. catarrhalis to 26°C upregulates the expression of UspA2, a major outer membrane protein involved in serum resistance, leading to improved binding of vitronectin which neutralizes the lethal effect of human complement. In contrast, cold shock decreases the expression of Hemagglutinin, a major adhesin, which mediates B cell response, and reduces immunoglobulin D-binding on the surface of M. catarrhalis. Conclusion Cold shock of M. catarrhalis induces the expression of genes involved in iron acquisition, serum resistance and immune evasion. Thus, cold shock at a physiologically relevant temperature of 26°C induces in M. catarrhalis a complex of adaptive mechanisms that enables the bacterium to target their host cellular receptors or soluble effectors and may contribute to enhanced growth, colonization and virulence.