Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Uncovering the dynamics of cardiac systems using stochastic pacing and frequency domain analyses

Alternans of cardiac action potential duration (APD) is a well-known arrhythmogenic mechanism which results from dynamical instabilities. The propensity to alternans is classically investigated by examining APD restitution and by deriving APD restitution slopes as predictive markers. However, experiments have shown that such markers are not always accurate for the prediction of alternans. Using a mathematical ventricular cell model known to exhibit unstable dynamics of both membrane potential and Ca2+ cycling, we demonstrate that an accurate marker can be obtained by pacing at cycle lengths (CLs) varying randomly around a basic CL (BCL) and by evaluating the transfer function between the time series of CLs and APDs using an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model. The first pole of this transfer function corresponds to the eigenvalue (λalt) of the dominant eigenmode of the cardiac system, which predicts that alternans occurs when λalt≤−1. For different BCLs, control values of λalt were obtained using eigenmode analysis and compared to the first pole of the transfer function estimated using ARMA model fitting in simulations of random pacing protocols. In all versions of the cell model, this pole provided an accurate estimation of λalt. Furthermore, during slow ramp decreases of BCL or simulated drug application, this approach predicted the onset of alternans by extrapolating the time course of the estimated λalt. In conclusion, stochastic pacing and ARMA model identification represents a novel approach to predict alternans without making any assumptions about its ionic mechanisms. It should therefore be applicable experimentally for any type of myocardial cell.

Real-time dynamics of open quantum spin systems driven by dissipative processes

We study the real-time evolution of large open quantum spin systems in two spatial dimensions, whose dynamics is entirely driven by a dissipative coupling to the environment. We consider different dissipative processes and investigate the real-time evolution from an ordered phase of the Heisenberg or XY model towards a disordered phase at late times, disregarding unitary Hamiltonian dynamics. The corresponding Kossakowski-Lindblad equation is solved via an efficient cluster algorithm. We find that the symmetry of the dissipative process determines the time scales, which govern the approach towards a new equilibrium phase at late times. Most notably, we find a slow equilibration if the dissipative process conserves any of the magnetization Fourier modes. In these cases, the dynamics can be interpreted as a diffusion process of the conserved quantity.

A landscape mosaics approach for characterizing swidden systems from a REDD+ perspective

Swidden agriculture is often deemed responsible for deforestation and forest degradation in tropical regions, yet swidden landscapes are commonly not visible on land cover/use maps, making it difficult to prove this assertion. For a future REDD+ scheme, the correct identification of deforestation and forest degradation and linking these processes to land use is crucial. However, it is a key challenge to distinguish degradation and deforestation from temporal vegetation dynamics inherent to swiddening. In this article we present an approach for spatial delineation of swidden systems based on landscape mosaics. Furthermore we introduce a classification for change processes based on the change matrix of these landscape mosaics. Our approach is illustrated by a case study in Viengkham district in northern Laos. Over a 30-year time period the swidden landscapes have increased in extent and they have degraded, shifting from long crop–fallow cycles to short cycles. From 2007 to 2009 degradation within the swidden system accounted for half of all the landscape mosaics change processes. Pioneering shifting cultivation did not prevail. The landscape mosaics approach could be used in a swidden compatible monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system of a future REDD+ framework.

A Systems-Level Approach to Human Epileptic Seizures

Epileptic seizures are due to the pathological collective activity of large cellular assemblies. A better understanding of this collective activity is integral to the development of novel diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In contrast to reductionist analyses, which focus solely on small-scale characteristics of ictogenesis, here we follow a systems-level approach, which combines both small-scale and larger-scale analyses. Peri-ictal dynamics of epileptic networks are assessed by studying correlation within and between different spatial scales of intracranial electroencephalographic recordings (iEEG) of a heterogeneous group of patients suffering from pharmaco-resistant epilepsy. Epileptiform activity as recorded by a single iEEG electrode is determined objectively by the signal derivative and then subjected to a multivariate analysis of correlation between all iEEG channels. We find that during seizure, synchrony increases on the smallest and largest spatial scales probed by iEEG. In addition, a dynamic reorganization of spatial correlation is observed on intermediate scales, which persists after seizure termination. It is proposed that this reorganization may indicate a balancing mechanism that decreases high local correlation. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that during epileptic seizures hypercorrelated and therefore functionally segregated brain areas are re-integrated into more collective brain dynamics. In addition, except for a special sub-group, a highly significant association is found between the location of ictal iEEG activity and the location of areas of relative decrease of localised EEG correlation. The latter could serve as a clinically important quantitative marker of the seizure onset zone (SOZ).

A global ”imaging” view on systems approaches in immunology

The immune system exhibits an enormous complexity. High throughput methods such as the "-omic'' technologies generate vast amounts of data that facilitate dissection of immunological processes at ever finer resolution. Using high-resolution data-driven systems analysis, causal relationships between complex molecular processes and particular immunological phenotypes can be constructed. However, processes in tissues, organs, and the organism itself (so-called higher level processes) also control and regulate the molecular (lower level) processes. Reverse systems engineering approaches, which focus on the examination of the structure, dynamics and control of the immune system, can help to understand the construction principles of the immune system. Such integrative mechanistic models can properly describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the immune system in health and disease by combining both higher and lower level processes. Moving from molecular and cellular levels to a multiscale systems understanding requires the development of methodologies that integrate data from different biological levels into multiscale mechanistic models. In particular, 3D imaging techniques and 4D modeling of the spatiotemporal dynamics of immune processes within lymphoid tissues are central for such integrative approaches. Both dynamic and global organ imaging technologies will be instrumental in facilitating comprehensive multiscale systems immunology analyses as discussed in this review.

A novel computer simulation method for simulating the multiscale transduction dynamics of signal proteins

Signal proteins are able to adapt their response to a change in the environment, governing in this way a broad variety of important cellular processes in living systems. While conventional molecular-dynamics (MD) techniques can be used to explore the early signaling pathway of these protein systems at atomistic resolution, the high computational costs limit their usefulness for the elucidation of the multiscale transduction dynamics of most signaling processes, occurring on experimental timescales. To cope with the problem, we present in this paper a novel multiscale-modeling method, based on a combination of the kinetic Monte-Carlo- and MD-technique, and demonstrate its suitability for investigating the signaling behavior of the photoswitch light-oxygen-voltage-2-Jα domain from Avena Sativa (AsLOV2-Jα) and an AsLOV2-Jα-regulated photoactivable Rac1-GTPase (PA-Rac1), recently employed to control the motility of cancer cells through light stimulus. More specifically, we show that their signaling pathways begin with a residual re-arrangement and subsequent H-bond formation of amino acids near to the flavin-mononucleotide chromophore, causing a coupling between β-strands and subsequent detachment of a peripheral α-helix from the AsLOV2-domain. In the case of the PA-Rac1 system we find that this latter process induces the release of the AsLOV2-inhibitor from the switchII-activation site of the GTPase, enabling signal activation through effector-protein binding. These applications demonstrate that our approach reliably reproduces the signaling pathways of complex signal proteins, ranging from nanoseconds up to seconds at affordable computational costs.

Influence of inspired oxygen on glucose-lactate dynamics after subdural hematoma in the rat

The mechanisms causing brain damage after acute subdural hematoma (SDH) are poorly understood. A decrease in cerebral blood flow develops immediately after the hematoma forms, thus reducing cerebral oxygenation. This in turn may activate mitochondrial failure and tissue damage leading to ionic imbalance and possibly to cellular breakdown. The purpose of this study was to test whether a simple therapeutic measure, namely increased fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2 100), and hence increased arterial and brain tissue oxygen tension, can influence brain glucose and lactate dynamics acutely after subdural hematoma in the rat. Twenty-five male Sprague-Dawley anesthetized rats were studied before, during and after induction of the SDH in two separate groups. The Oxygen group (n = 10) was ventilated with 100% oxygen immediately after induction of the SDH. The Air group (n = 10) was ventilated during the entire study with 21% oxygen. Brain microdialysate samples were analyzed for glucose and lactate. All rats were monitored with femoral arterial blood pressure catheters, arterial blood gas analysis, arterial glucose, lactate and end tidal CO2 (EtCO2). Five male Sprague-Dawley rats were sham operated to measure the effect of oxygen challenge on glucose-lactate dynamics without injury. Arterial oxygen tension in the Oxygen group was 371 +/- 30 mmHg and was associated with significantly greater increase in dialysate lactate in the first 30 min after induction of SDH. Dialysate glucose initially dropped in both groups, after SDH, but then reverted significantly faster to values above baseline in the Oxygen group. Changes in ventilatory parameters had no significant effect on dialysate glucose and lactate parameters in the sham group. Extracellular dialysate lactate and glucose are influenced by administration of 100% O2 after SDH. Dialysate glucose normalizes significantly quicker upon 100% oxygen ventilation. We hypothesize that increased neural tissue oxygen tension, in presence of reduced regional CBF, and possibly compromised mitochondrial function, after acute SDH results in upregulation of rate-limiting enzyme systems responsible for both glycolytic and aerobic metabolism. Similar changes have been seen in severe human head injury, and suggest that a simple therapeutic measure, such as early ventilation with 100% O2, may improve cerebral energy metabolism, early after SDH. Further studies to measure the generation of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) are needed to validate the hypothesis.