A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Successful pacing using a batteryless sunlight-powered pacemaker.

AIMS Today's cardiac pacemakers are powered by batteries with limited energy capacity. As the battery's lifetime ends, the pacemaker needs to be replaced. This surgical re-intervention is costly and bears the risk of complications. Thus, a pacemaker without primary batteries is desirable. The goal of this study was to test whether transcutaneous solar light could power a pacemaker. METHODS AND RESULTS We used a three-step approach to investigate the feasibility of sunlight-powered cardiac pacing. First, the harvestable power was estimated. Theoretically, a subcutaneously implanted 1 cm(2) solar module may harvest ∼2500 µW from sunlight (3 mm implantation depth). Secondly, ex vivo measurements were performed with solar cells placed under pig skin flaps exposed to a solar simulator and real sunlight. Ex vivo measurements under real sunlight resulted in a median output power of 4941 µW/cm(2) [interquartile range (IQR) 3767-5598 µW/cm(2), median skin flap thickness 3.0 mm (IQR 2.7-3.3 mm)]. The output power strongly depended on implantation depth (ρSpearman = -0.86, P < 0.001). Finally, a batteryless single-chamber pacemaker powered by a 3.24 cm(2) solar module was implanted in vivo in a pig to measure output power and to pace. In vivo measurements showed a median output power of >3500 µW/cm(2) (skin flap thickness 2.8-3.84 mm). Successful batteryless VVI pacing using a subcutaneously implanted solar module was performed. CONCLUSION Based on our results, we estimate that a few minutes of direct sunlight (irradiating an implanted solar module) allow powering a pacemaker for 24 h using a suitable energy storage. Thus, powering a pacemaker by sunlight is feasible and may be an alternative energy supply for tomorrow's pacemakers.