Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko: Activity between March and June 2014 as observed from Rosetta/OSIRIS

Aims. 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is the target comet of the ESA’s Rosetta mission. After commissioning at the end of March 2014, the Optical, Spectroscopic, and Infrared Remote Imaging System (OSIRIS) onboard Rosetta, started imaging the comet and its dust environment to investigate how they change and evolve while approaching the Sun. Methods. We focused our work on Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) orange images and Wide Angle Camera (WAC) red and visible-610 images acquired between 2014 March 23 and June 24 when the nucleus of 67P was unresolved and moving from approximately 4.3 AU to 3.8 AU inbound. During this period the 67P – Rosetta distance decreased from 5 million to 120 thousand km. Results. Through aperture photometry, we investigated how the comet brightness varies with heliocentric distance. 67P was likely already weakly active at the end of March 2014, with excess flux above that expected for the nucleus. The comet’s brightness was mostly constant during the three months of approach observations, apart from one outburst that occurred around April 30 and a second increase in flux after June 20. Coma was resolved in the profiles from mid-April. Analysis of the coma morphology suggests that most of the activity comes from a source towards the celestial north pole of the comet, but the outburst that occurred on April 30 released material in a different direction.

On the nucleus structure and activity of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Images from the OSIRIS scientific imaging system onboard Rosetta show that the nucleus of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko consists of two lobes connected by a short neck. The nucleus has a bulk density less than half that of water. Activity at a distance from the Sun of >3 astronomical units is predominantly from the neck, where jets have been seen consistently. The nucleus rotates about the principal axis of momentum. The surface morphology suggests that the removal of larger volumes of material, possibly via explosive release of subsurface pressure or via creation of overhangs by sublimation, may be a major mass loss process. The shape raises the question of whether the two lobes represent a contact binary formed 4.5 billion years ago, or a single body where a gap has evolved via mass loss.

Alteration of natural ³⁷Ar activity concentration in the subsurface by gas transport and water infiltration

High ³⁷Ar activity concentration in soil gas is proposed as a key evidence for the detection of underground nuclear explosion by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. However, such a detection is challenged by the natural background of ³⁷Ar in the subsurface, mainly due to Ca activation by cosmic rays. A better understanding and improved capability to predict ³⁷Ar activity concentration in the subsurface and its spatial and temporal variability is thus required. A numerical model integrating ³⁷Ar production and transport in the subsurface is developed, including variable soil water content and water infiltration at the surface. A parameterized equation for ³⁷Ar production in the first 15 m below the surface is studied, taking into account the major production reactions and the moderation effect of soil water content. Using sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification, a realistic and comprehensive probability distribution of natural ³⁷Ar activity concentrations in soil gas is proposed, including the effects of water infiltration. Site location and soil composition are identified as the parameters allowing for a most effective reduction of the possible range of ³⁷Ar activity concentrations. The influence of soil water content on ³⁷Ar production is shown to be negligible to first order, while ³⁷Ar activity concentration in soil gas and its temporal variability appear to be strongly influenced by transient water infiltration events. These results will be used as a basis for practical CTBTO concepts of operation during an OSI.