A Global Climatology of Baroclinically Influenced Tropical Cyclogenesis*

Tropical cyclogenesis is generally considered to occur in regions devoid of baroclinic structures; however, an appreciable number of tropical cyclones (TCs) form in baroclinic environments each year. A global climatology of these baroclinically influenced TC developments is presented in this study. An objective classification strategy is developed that focuses on the characteristics of the environmental state rather than on properties of the vortex, thus allowing for a pointwise “development pathway” classification of reanalysis data. The resulting climatology shows that variability within basins arises primarily as a result of local surface thermal contrasts and the positions of time-mean features on the subtropical tropopause. The pathway analyses are sampled to generate a global climatology of 1948–2010 TC developments classified by baroclinic influence: nonbaroclinic (70%), low-level baroclinic (9%), trough induced (5%), weak tropical transition (11%), and strong tropical transition (5%). All basins other than the North Atlantic are dominated by nonbaroclinic events; however, there is extensive interbasin variability in secondary development pathways. Within each basin, subregions and time periods are identified in which the relative importance of the development pathways also differs. The efficiency of tropical cyclogenesis is found to be highly dependent on development pathway. The peak efficiency defined in the classification subspace straddles the nonbaroclinic/trough-induced boundary, suggesting that the optimal environment for TC development includes a baroclinic contribution from an upper-level disturbance. By assessing the global distribution of baroclinically influenced TC formations, this study identifies regions and pathways whose further study could yield improvements in our understanding of this important subset of TC developments.

Designing forest biodiversity experiments: general considerations illustrated by a new large experiment in subtropical China

1. Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) experiments address ecosystem-level consequences of species loss by comparing communities of high species richness with communities from which species have been gradually eliminated. BEF experiments originally started with microcosms in the laboratory and with grassland ecosystems. A new frontier in experimental BEF research is manipulating tree diversity in forest ecosystems, compelling researchers to think big and comprehensively. 2. We present and discuss some of the major issues to be considered in the design of BEF experiments with trees and illustrate these with a new forest biodiversity experiment established in subtropical China (Xingangshan, Jiangxi Province) in 2009/2010. Using a pool of 40 tree species, extinction scenarios were simulated with tree richness levels of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 species on a total of 566 plots of 25.8x25.8m each. 3. The goal of this experiment is to estimate effects of tree and shrub species richness on carbon storage and soil erosion; therefore, the experiment was established on sloped terrain. The following important design choices were made: (i) establishing many small rather than fewer larger plots, (ii) using high planting density and random mixing of species rather than lower planting density and patchwise mixing of species, (iii) establishing a map of the initial ecoscape' to characterize site heterogeneity before the onset of biodiversity effects and (iv) manipulating tree species richness not only in random but also in trait-oriented extinction scenarios. 4. Data management and analysis are particularly challenging in BEF experiments with their hierarchical designs nesting individuals within-species populations within plots within-species compositions. Statistical analysis best proceeds by partitioning these random terms into fixed-term contrasts, for example, species composition into contrasts for species richness and the presence of particular functional groups, which can then be tested against the remaining random variation among compositions. 5. We conclude that forest BEF experiments provide exciting and timely research options. They especially require careful thinking to allow multiple disciplines to measure and analyse data jointly and effectively. Achieving specific research goals and synergy with previous experiments involves trade-offs between different designs and requires manifold design decisions.

Stalagmite water content as a proxy for drip water supply in tropical and subtropical areas

In this pilot study water was extracted from samples of two Holocene stalagmites from Socotra Island, Yemen, and one Eemian stalagmite from southern continental Yemen. The amount of water extracted per unit mass of stalagmite rock, termed "water yield" hereafter, serves as a measure of its total water content. Based on direct correlation plots of water yields and δ18Ocalcite and on regime shift analyses, we demonstrate that for the studied stalagmites the water yield records vary systematically with the corresponding oxygen isotopic compositions of the calcite (δ18Ocalcite). Within each stalagmite lower δ18Ocalcite values are accompanied by lower water yields and vice versa. The δ18Ocalcite records of the studied stalagmites have previously been interpreted to predominantly reflect the amount of rainfall in the area; thus, water yields can be linked to drip water supply. Higher, and therefore more continuous drip water supply caused by higher rainfall rates, supports homogeneous deposition of calcite with low porosity and therefore a small fraction of water-filled inclusions, resulting in low water yields of the respective samples. A reduction of drip water supply fosters irregular growth of calcite with higher porosity, leading to an increase of the fraction of water-filled inclusions and thus higher water yields. The results are consistent with the literature on stalagmite growth and supported by optical inspection of thin sections of our samples. We propose that for a stalagmite from a dry tropical or subtropical area, its water yield record represents a novel paleo-climate proxy recording changes in drip water supply, which can in turn be interpreted in terms of associated rainfall rates.

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet

This study presents a 5-yr climatology of 7-day back trajectories started from the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. These trajectories provide insight into the seasonally and regionally varying angular momentum and potential vorticity characteristics of the air parcels that end up in the subtropical jet. The trajectories reveal preferred pathways of the air parcels that reach the subtropical jet from the tropics and the extratropics and allow estimation of the tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet. The back trajectories were calculated 7 days back in time and started every 6 h from December 2005 to November 2010 using the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset as a basis. The trajectories were started from the 345-K isentrope in areas where the wind speed exceeded a seasonally varying threshold and where the wind shear was confined to upper levels. During winter, the South American continent, the Indian Ocean, and the Maritime Continent are preferred areas of ascent into the upper troposphere. From these areas, air parcels follow an anticyclonic pathway into the subtropical jet. During summer, the majority of air parcels ascend over the Himalayas and Southeast Asia. Angular momentum is overall well conserved for trajectories that reach the subtropical jet from the deep tropics. In winter and spring, the hemispheric-mean angular momentum loss amounts to approximately 6%; in summer, it amounts to approximately 18%; and in fall, it amounts to approximately 13%. This seasonal variability is confirmed using an independent potential vorticity–based method to estimate tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet.