Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Social inequality and smoking in young Swiss men: intergenerational transmission of cultural capital and health orientation

OBJECTIVES Smoking is related to income and education and contributes to social inequality in morbidity and mortality. Socialisation theories focus on one's family of origin as regards acquisition of norms, attitudes and behaviours. Aim of this study is to assess associations of daily smoking with health orientation and academic track in young Swiss men. Further, to assess associations of health orientation and academic track with family healthy lifestyle, parents' cultural capital, and parents' economic capital. METHODS Cross-sectional data were collected during recruitment for compulsory military service in Switzerland during 2010 and 2011. A structural equation model was fitted to a sample of 18- to 25-year-old Swiss men (N = 10,546). RESULTS Smoking in young adults was negatively associated with academic track and health orientation. Smoking was negatively associated with parents' cultural capital through academic track. Smoking was negatively associated with health orientation which in turn was positively associated with a healthy lifestyle in the family of origin. CONCLUSIONS Results suggest two different mechanisms of intergenerational transmissions: first, the family transmission path of health-related dispositions, and secondly, the structural transmission path of educational inequality.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

Online social networks: why we disclose

On online social networks such as Facebook, massive self-disclosure by users has attracted the attention of industry players and policymakers worldwide. Despite the impressive scope of this phenomenon, very little is understood about what motivates users to disclose personal information. Integrating focus group results into a theoretical privacy calculus framework, we develop and empirically test a Structural Equation Model of self-disclosure with 259 subjects. We find that users are primarily motivated to disclose information because of the convenience of maintaining and developing relationships and platform enjoyment. Countervailing these benefits, privacy risks represent a critical barrier to information disclosure. However, users’ perception of risk can be mitigated by their trust in the network provider and availability of control options. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations for network providers.

Privacy concerns and identity in online social networks

Driven by privacy-related fears, users of Online Social Networks may start to reduce their network activities. This trend can have a negative impact on network sustainability and its business value. Nevertheless, very little is understood about the privacy-related concerns of users and the impact of those concerns on identity performance. To close this gap, we take a systematic view of user privacy concerns on such platforms. Based on insights from focus groups and an empirical study with 210 subjects, we find that (i) Organizational Threats and (ii) Social Threats stemming from the user environment constitute two underlying dimensions of the construct “Privacy Concerns in Online Social Networks”. Using a Structural Equation Model, we examine the impact of the identified dimensions of concern on the Amount, Honesty, and Conscious Control of individual self-disclosure on these sites. We find that users tend to reduce the Amount of information disclosed as a response to their concerns regarding Organizational Threats. Additionally, users become more conscious about the information they reveal as a result of Social Threats. Network providers may want to develop specific mechanisms to alleviate identified user concerns and thereby ensure network sustainability.

Leveraging Trust and Privacy Concerns in Online Social Networks: an Empirical Study

Unprecedented success of Online Social Networks, such as Facebook, has been recently overshadowed by the privacy risks they imply. Weary of privacy concerns and unable to construct their identity in the desired way, users may restrict or even terminate their platform activities. Even though this means a considerable business risk for these platforms, so far there have been no studies on how to enable social network providers to address these problems. This study fills this gap by adopting a fairness perspective to analyze related measures at the disposal of the provider. In a Structural Equation Model with 237 subjects we find that ensuring interactional and procedural justice are two important strategies to support user participation on the platform.

"It won't happen to me!": self-disclosure in online social networks

Despite the considerable amount of self-disclosure in Online Social Networks (OSN), the motivation behind this phenomenon is still little understood. Building on the Privacy Calculus theory, this study fills this gap by taking a closer look at the factors behind individual self-disclosure decisions. In a Structural Equation Model with 237 subjects we find Perceived Enjoyment and Privacy Concerns to be significant determinants of information revelation. We confirm that the privacy concerns of OSN users are primarily determined by the perceived likelihood of a privacy violation and much less by the expected damage. These insights provide a solid basis for OSN providers and policy-makers in their effort to ensure healthy disclosure levels that are based on objective rationale rather than subjective misconceptions.

Effects of depressive symptoms on antecedents of lapses during a smoking cessation attempt: an ecological momentary assessment study

AIMS: To investigate pathways through which momentary negative affect and depressive symptoms affect risk of lapse during smoking cessation attempts. DESIGN: Ecological momentary assessment was carried out during 2 weeks after an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. A 3-month follow-up measured smoking frequency. SETTING: Data were collected via mobile devices in German-speaking Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 242 individuals (age 20-40, 67% men) reported 7112 observations. MEASUREMENTS: Online surveys assessed baseline depressive symptoms and nicotine dependence. Real-time data on negative affect, physical withdrawal symptoms, urge to smoke, abstinence-related self-efficacy and lapses. FINDINGS: A two-level structural equation model suggested that on the situational level, negative affect increased the urge to smoke and decreased self-efficacy (β = 0.20; β = -0.12, respectively), but had no direct effect on lapse risk. A higher urge to smoke (β = 0.09) and lower self-efficacy (β = -0.11) were confirmed as situational antecedents of lapses. Depressive symptoms at baseline were a strong predictor of a person's average negative affect (β = 0.35, all P < 0.001). However, the baseline characteristics influenced smoking frequency 3 months later only indirectly, through influences of average states on the number of lapses during the quit attempt. CONCLUSIONS: Controlling for nicotine dependence, higher depressive symptoms at baseline were associated strongly with a worse longer-term outcome. Negative affect experienced during the quit attempt was the only pathway through which the baseline depressive symptoms were associated with a reduced self-efficacy and increased urges to smoke, all leading to the increased probability of lapses.

Sports after Busy Work: Work-Related Cognitive Failure Corresponds to Risk Bearing Behaviors and Athletic Injury

Although employees are encouraged to take exercise after work to keep physically fit, they should not suffer injury. Some sports injuries that occur after work appear to be work-related and preventable. This study investigated whether cognitive failure mediates the influence of mental work demands and conscientiousness on risk-taking and risky and unaware behaviour during after-work sports activities. Participants were 129 employees (36% female) who regularly took part in team sports after work. A structural equation model showed that work-related cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of mental work demands on risky behaviour during sports (p < .05) and also mediated the directional link between conscientiousness and risky behaviour during sports (p < .05). A path from risky behaviour during sports to sports injuries in the last four weeks was also significant (p < .05). Performance constraints, time pressure, and task uncertainty are likely to increase cognitive load and thereby boost cognitive failures both during work and sports activities after work. Some sports injuries after work could be prevented by addressing the issue of work redesign.

Relationship between depressive symptoms and acute low back pain at first medical consultation, three and six weeks of primary care

Background: Aim of the study was to test lagged reciprocal effects of depressive symptoms and acute low back pain (LBP) across the first weeks of primary care. Methods: In a prospective inception cohort study, 221 primary care patients with acute or subacute LBP were assessed at the time of initial consultation and then followed up at three and six weeks. Key measures were depressive symptoms (modified Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale) and LBP (sensory pain, present pain index and visual analogue scale of the Short-Form McGill Pain Questionnaire). Results: When only cross-lagged effects of six weeks were tested, a reciprocal positive relationship between LBP and depressive symptoms was shown in a cross-lagged structural equation model (β = .15 and .17, p < .01). When lagged reciprocal paths at three- and six-week follow-up were tested, depressive symptoms at the time of consultation predicted higher LBP severity after three weeks (β = .23, p < .01). LBP after three weeks had in turn a positive cross-lagged effect on depression after six weeks (β = .27, p < .001). Conclusions: Reciprocal effects of depressive symptoms and LBP seem to depend on time under medical treatment. Health practitioners should screen for and treat depressive symptoms at the first consultation to improve the LBP treatment.

Push and Pull Motivations for Quitting: A three-wave investigation of predictors and consequences of turnover

We report a new analysis of data from a multi-year study, some of which were previously published in the current journal. A longitudinal sample of 380 computer specialists was followed over two years, yielding three measures each of job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intentions, as well as actual turnover, and reasons for leaving, at Times 2 and 3. Career paths were more diverse than the classical distinction between stayers and leavers implies. Furthermore, although the largest single group of leavers cited “push” reasons, conforming to the classical withdrawal model, a sizable number were attracted to another job (“pull motivation”). In a three-wave structural equation model, job (dis)satisfaction predicted turnover, while organizational commitment exerted its influence only via its association with job satisfaction. As expected, however, attitudes predicted turnover only for participants with push motivation. Quitting, in turn, predicted an improvement in both satisfaction and commitment, indicating that it paid off for the individual. The necessity to study consequences of turnover and to distinguish between different subgroups of stayers and leavers is emphasized.

Appreciation of nature and appreciation of environmental protection: How stable are these attitudes and which comes first?

Introduction. – Attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection are two separate but correlated attitudes. Little is known about the two attitudes’ stability/volatility over time, despite the practical value of such knowledge. Objectives & method. – Using longitudinal survey data from 251 adults in a cross-lagged structural equation model, we assessed the degree of spontaneous (i.e., unprompted) change in the two attitudes. We also considered whether such change could provide evidence regarding causal direction; causation could go in either of two directions between the two attitudes, or it could even be bi-directional. Results. – We corroborated the substantive connection between attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection; however, the absence of change in the attitudes despite the passage of two years disallows reliable statements about causal direction. Conclusion. – It is possible to protect the environment by encouraging appreciation of nature, but change in attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection may be difficult to achieve with mature individuals.

The effect of cumulating exposure to abacavir on the risk of cardiovascular disease events in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channelling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient years). In a conventional Cox model, recent - but not cumulative - exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past four years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.43-2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6 to 36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.

Compartment pressure of the rectus sheath accurately reflects intra-abdominal pressure in a porcine model

To investigate whether the compartment pressure of the rectus sheath (CPRS) reflects the intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) under various conditions of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in a pig model.

Functional and structural characterization of the first prokaryotic member of the L-amino acid transporter (LAT) family: a model for APC transporters

We have identified YkbA from Bacillus subtilis as a novel member of the L-amino acid transporter (LAT) family of amino acid transporters. The protein is approximately 30% identical in amino acid sequence to the light subunits of human heteromeric amino acid transporters. Purified His-tagged YkbA from Escherichia coli membranes reconstituted in proteoliposomes exhibited sodium-independent, obligatory exchange activity for L-serine and L-threonine and also for aromatic amino acids, albeit with less activity. Thus, we propose that YkbA be renamed SteT (Ser/Thr exchanger transporter). Kinetic analysis supports a sequential mechanism of exchange for SteT. Freeze-fracture analysis of purified, functionally active SteT in proteoliposomes, together with blue native polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and transmission electron microscopy of detergent-solubilized purified SteT, suggest that the transporter exists in a monomeric form. Freeze-fracture analysis showed spherical particles with a diameter of 7.4 nm. Transmission electron microscopy revealed elliptical particles (diameters 6 x 7 nm) with a distinct central depression. To our knowledge, this is the first functional characterization of a prokaryotic member of the LAT family and the first structural data on an APC (amino acids, polyamines, and choline for organocations) transporter. SteT represents an excellent model to study the molecular architecture of the light subunits of heteromeric amino acid transporters and other APC transporters.