A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

Prognostic impact of β-2-microglobulin expression in colorectal cancers stratified by mismatch repair status

β-2-microglobulin (B2M) is essential for antigen presentation, yet may also possess proto-oncogenic properties.

An urn-based Bayesian block bootstrap

Block bootstrap has been introduced in the literature for resampling dependent data, i.e. stationary processes. One of the main assumptions in block bootstrapping is that the blocks of observations are exchangeable, i.e. their joint distribution is immune to permutations. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian approach to block bootstrapping, starting from the construction of exchangeable blocks. Our sampling mechanism is based on a particular class of reinforced urn processes

A Stratified Model for Psychosis Prediction in Clinical Practice

Objective: Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach. Method: Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients. Results: The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present). Conclusions: The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.

A note on the theory SID<ω of stratified induction

We introduce and analyse a theory of finitely stratified general inductive definitions over the natural numbers, inline image, and establish its proof theoretic ordinal, inline image. The definition of inline image bears some similarities with Leivant's ramified theories for finitary inductive definitions.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

New ischaemic brain lesions in cervical artery dissection stratified to antiplatelets or anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE To determine the frequency of new ischaemic or hemorrhagic brain lesions on early follow-up magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with cervical artery dissection (CAD) and to investigate the relationship with antithrombotic treatment. METHODS This prospective observational study included consecutive CAD patients with ischaemic or non-ischaemic symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks. All patients had baseline brain MRI scans at the time of CAD diagnosis and follow-up MRI scans within 30 days thereafter. Ischaemic lesions were detected by diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), intracerebral bleeds (ICBs) by paramagnetic-susceptible sequences. Outcome measures were any new DWI lesions or ICBs on follow-up MRI scans. Kaplan-Meier statistics and calculated odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were used for lesion occurrence, baseline characteristics and type of antithrombotic treatment (antiplatelet versus anticoagulant). RESULTS Sixty-eight of 74 (92%) CAD patients were eligible for analysis. Median (interquartile range) time interval between baseline and follow-up MRI scans was 5 (3-10) days. New DWI lesions occurred in 17 (25%) patients with a cumulative 30-day incidence of 41.3% (standard error 8.6%). Occurrence of new DWI lesions was associated with stroke or transient ischaemic attack at presentation [7.86 (2.01-30.93)], occlusion of the dissected vessel [4.09 (1.24-13.55)] and presence of DWI lesions on baseline MRI [6.67 (1.70-26.13)]. The type of antithrombotic treatment had no impact either on occurrence of new DWI lesions [1.00 (0.32-3.15)] or on functional 6-month outcome [1.27 (0.41-3.94)]. No new ICBs were observed. CONCLUSION New ischaemic brain lesions occurred in a quarter of CAD patients, independently of the type of antithrombotic treatment. MRI findings could potentially serve as surrogate outcomes in pilot treatment trials.

Bevacizumab, Pemetrexed, and Cisplatin, or Bevacizumab and Erlotinib for Patients With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Stratified by Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation: Phase II Trial SAKK19/09

Treatment allocation by epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status is a new standard in patients with metastatic nonesmall-cell lung cancer. Yet, relatively few modern chemotherapy trials were conducted in patients characterized by epidermal growth factor receptor wild type. We describe the results of a multicenter phase II trial, testing in parallel 2 novel combination therapies, predefined molecular markers, and tumor rebiopsy at progression. Objective: The goal was to demonstrate that tailored therapy, according to tumor histology and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status, and the introduction of novel drug combinations in the treatment of advanced nonesmall-cell lung cancer are promising for further investigation. Methods: We conducted a multicenter phase II trial with mandatory EGFR testing and 2 strata. Patients with EGFR wild type received 4 cycles of bevacizumab, pemetrexed, and cisplatin, followed by maintenance with bevacizumab and pemetrexed until progression. Patients with EGFR mutations received bevacizumab and erlotinib until progression. Patients had computed tomography scans every 6 weeks and repeat biopsy at progression. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) ≥ 35% at 6 months in stratum EGFR wild type; 77 patients were required to reach a power of 90% with an alpha of 5%. Secondary end points were median PFS, overall survival, best overall response rate (ORR), and tolerability. Further biomarkers and biopsy at progression were also evaluated. Results: A total of 77 evaluable patients with EGFR wild type received an average of 9 cycles (range, 1-25). PFS at 6 months was 45.5%, median PFS was 6.9 months, overall survival was 12.1 months, and ORR was 62%. Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene mutations and circulating vascular endothelial growth factor negatively correlated with survival, but thymidylate synthase expression did not. A total of 20 patients with EGFR mutations received an average of 16.

Toward stratified treatments for bipolar disorders

In bipolar disorders, there are unclear diagnostic boundaries with unipolar depression and schizophrenia, inconsistency of treatment guidelines, relatively long trial-and-error phases of treatment optimization, and increasing use of complex combination therapies lacking empirical evidence. These suggest that the current definition of bipolar disorders based on clinical symptoms reflects a clinically and etiologically heterogeneous entity. Stratification of treatments for bipolar disorders based on biomarkers and improved clinical markers are greatly needed to increase the efficacy of currently available treatments and improve the chances of developing novel therapeutic approaches. This review provides a theoretical framework to identify biomarkers and summarizes the most promising markers for stratification regarding beneficial and adverse treatment effects. State and stage specifiers, neuropsychological tests, neuroimaging, and genetic and epigenetic biomarkers will be discussed with respect to their ability to predict the response to specific pharmacological and psychosocial psychotherapies for bipolar disorders. To date, the most reliable markers are derived from psychopathology and history-taking, while no biomarker has been found that reliably predicts individual treatment responses. This review underlines both the importance of clinical diagnostic skills and the need for biological research to identify markers that will allow the targeting of treatment specifically to sub-populations of bipolar patients who are more likely to benefit from a specific treatment and less likely to develop adverse reactions.

A Proof-Theoretic Analysis of Theories for Stratified Inductive Definitions

In this article we study subsystems SIDᵥ of the theory ID₁ in which fixed point induction is restricted to properly stratified formulas.