Risk attribution of Campylobacter infection by age group using exposure modelling

Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Maximal acceleration of calcium release refractoriness by β-adrenergic stimulation requires dual activation of protein kinase A and CaMKII in mouse ventricular myocytes

Time-dependent refractoriness of calcium (Ca2+) release in cardiac myocytes is an important factor in determining whether pro-arrhythmic release patterns develop. At the subcellular level of the Ca2+ spark, recent studies have suggested that recovery of spark amplitude is controlled by local sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) refilling whereas refractoriness of spark triggering depends on both refilling and the sensitivity of the ryanodine receptor (RyR) release channels that produce sparks. Here we studied regulation of Ca2+ spark refractoriness in mouse ventricular myocytes by examining how β-adrenergic stimulation influenced sequences of Ca2+ sparks originating from individual RyR clusters. Our protocol allowed us to separately measure recovery of spark amplitude and delays between successive sparks, and data were interpreted quantitatively through simulations with a stochastic mathematical model. We found that, compared with spark sequences measured under control conditions: (1) β-adrenergic stimulation with isoproterenol accelerated spark amplitude recovery and decreased spark-to-spark delays; (2) activating protein kinase A (PKA) with forskolin accelerated amplitude recovery but did not affect spark-to-spark delays; (3) inhibiting PKA with H89 retarded amplitude recovery and increased spark- to-spark delays; (4) preventing phosphorylation of the RyR at serine 2808 with a knock-in mouse prevented the decrease in spark-to-spark delays seen with β-adrenergic stimulation; (5) inhibiting either PKA or Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) during β-adrenergic stimulation prevented the decrease in spark-to-spark delays seen) without inhibition. The results suggest that activation of either PKA or CaMKII is sufficient to speed SR refilling, but activation of both kinases appears necessary to observe increased RyR sensitivity. The data provide novel insight into β-adrenergic regulation of Ca2+ release refractoriness in mouse myocytes.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

Topological lattice actions for the 2d XY model

We consider the 2d XY Model with topological lattice actions, which are invariant against small deformations of the field configuration. These actions constrain the angle between neighbouring spins by an upper bound, or they explicitly suppress vortices (and anti-vortices). Although topological actions do not have a classical limit, they still lead to the universal behaviour of the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) phase transition — at least up to moderate vortex suppression. In the massive phase, the analytically known Step Scaling Function (SSF) is reproduced in numerical simulations. However, deviations from the expected universal behaviour of the lattice artifacts are observed. In the massless phase, the BKT value of the critical exponent ηc is confirmed. Hence, even though for some topological actions vortices cost zero energy, they still drive the standard BKT transition. In addition we identify a vortex-free transition point, which deviates from the BKT behaviour.

Interfaces, strings, and a soft mode in the square lattice quantum dimer model

The quantum dimer model on the square lattice is a U(1) gauge theory that addresses aspects of the physics of high-Tc superconductors. Using a quantum Monte Carlo method, we show that the theory exists in a confining columnar valence bond solid phase. The interfaces separating distinct columnar phases display plaquette order, which, however, is not realized as a bulk phase. Static “electric” charges are confined by flux tubes that consist of multiple strands, each carrying a fractionalized flux ¼. A soft pseudo-Goldstone mode (which becomes exactly massless at the Rokhsar-Kivelson point) extends deep into the columnar phase, with potential implications for high-Tc physics.

Standard model cross-over on the lattice

With the physical Higgs mass the standard model symmetry restoration phase transition is a smooth cross-over. We study the thermodynamics of the cross-over using numerical lattice Monte Carlo simulations of an effective SU(2)×U(1) gauge+Higgs theory, significantly improving on previously published results. We measure the Higgs field expectation value, thermodynamic quantities like pressure, energy density, speed of sound and heat capacity, and screening masses associated with the Higgs and Z fields. While the cross-over is smooth, it is very well defined with a width of only ∼5  GeV. We measure the cross-over temperature from the maximum of the susceptibility of the Higgs condensate, with the result Tc=159.5±1.5  GeV. Outside of the narrow cross-over region the perturbative results agree well with nonperturbative ones.