Stochastic search for semiparametric linear regression models

This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.

The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models

The counterfactual decomposition technique popularized by Blinder (1973, Journal of Human Resources, 436–455) and Oaxaca (1973, International Economic Review, 693–709) is widely used to study mean outcome differences between groups. For example, the technique is often used to analyze wage gaps by sex or race. This article summarizes the technique and addresses several complications, such as the identification of effects of categorical predictors in the detailed decomposition or the estimation of standard errors. A new command called oaxaca is introduced, and examples illustrating its usage are given.

Migration and population expansion of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus since 15000 years in and across the Alps, based on pollen-percentage threshold values

Aims: The aim of this study is to explore the migration (colonization of new areas) and subsequent population expansion (within an area) since 15 ka cal BP of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus into and through the Alps solely on the basis of high-quality pollen data. Methods: Chronologies of 101 pollen sequences are improved or created. Data from the area delimited by 45.5–48.1°N and 6–14°E are summarized in three ways: (1) in a selection of pollen-percentage threshold maps (thresholds 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 4%, 8%, 16%, and 32% of land pollen); (2) in graphic summaries of 250-year time slices and geographic segments (lengthwise and transverse in relation to the main axis of the Alps) as pollen-percentage curves, pollen-percentage difference curves, and pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP graphed against both the length and the transverse Alpine axes; and (3) in tables showing statistical relationships of either pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP or pollen expansion durations (=time lapse between different pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP) with latitude, longitude, and elevation; to establish these relationships we used both simple linear regression and multiple linear regression after stepwise-forward selection. Results: The statistical results indicate that (a) the use of pollen-percentage thresholds between 0.5% and 8% yield mostly similar directions of tree migration, so the method is fairly robust, (b) Abies migrated northward, Fagus southward, Picea westward, and Quercus northward; more detail does not emerge due to an extreme scarcity of high-quality data especially along the southern foothills of the Alps and in the eastern Alps. This scarcity allows the reconstruction of one immigration route only of Abies into the southern Alps. The speed of population expansion (following arrival) of Abies increased and of Picea decreased during the Holocene, of Fagus it decreased especially during the later Holocene, and of Quercus it increased especially at the start of the Holocene.

The role of central hypersensitivity in the determination of intradiscal mechanical hyperalgesia in discogenic pain

OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of the present study was to investigate whether there is a relationship between central hypersensitivity (assessed by pressure pain thresholds of uninjured tissues) and intradiscal pain threshold during discography. The secondary aim was to test the hypothesis that peripheral noxious stimulation dynamically modulates central hypersensitivity. PATIENTS: Twenty-four patients with positive provocation discography were tested for central hypersensitivity by pressure algometry before and after the intervention with assessments of pressure pain detection and tolerance thresholds. Intradiscal pain threshold was assessed by measuring intradiscal pressure at the moment of pain provocation during discography. Correlation analyses between intradiscal pain threshold and pressure algometry were made. For the secondary aim, pressure algometry data before and after discography were compared. RESULTS: Significant correlation with intradiscal pain threshold was found for pressure pain detection threshold at the toe (regression coefficient: 0.03, P = 0.05) and pressure pain tolerance thresholds at the nonpainful point at the back (0.02, P = 0.024). Tolerance threshold at the toe was a significant predictor for intradiscal pain threshold only in multiple linear regression (0.036, P = 0.027). Detection as well as tolerance thresholds significantly decreased after discography at the painful and the nonpainful point at the back, but not at the toe. CONCLUSIONS: Central hypersensitivity may influence intradiscal pain threshold, but with a modest quantitative impact. The diagnostic value of provocation discography is therefore not substantially impaired. Regional, but not generalized central hypersensitivity is dynamically modulated by ongoing peripheral nociceptive input.

Analysis of the erosive effect of different dietary substances and medications

Excessive consumption of acidic drinks and foods contributes to tooth erosion. The aims of the present in vitro study were twofold: (1) to assess the erosive potential of different dietary substances and medications; (2) to determine the chemical properties with an impact on the erosive potential. We selected sixty agents: soft drinks, an energy drink, sports drinks, alcoholic drinks, juice, fruit, mineral water, yogurt, tea, coffee, salad dressing and medications. The erosive potential of the tested agents was quantified as the changes in surface hardness (ΔSH) of enamel specimens within the first 2 min (ΔSH2-0 = SH2 min - SHbaseline) and the second 2 min exposure (ΔSH4-2 = SH4 min - SH2 min). To characterise these agents, various chemical properties, e.g. pH, concentrations of Ca, Pi and F, titratable acidity to pH 7·0 and buffering capacity at the original pH value (β), as well as degree of saturation (pK - pI) with respect to hydroxyapatite (HAP) and fluorapatite (FAP), were determined. Erosive challenge caused a statistically significant reduction in SH for all agents except for coffee, some medications and alcoholic drinks, and non-flavoured mineral waters, teas and yogurts (P < 0·01). By multiple linear regression analysis, 52 % of the variation in ΔSH after 2 min and 61 % after 4 min immersion were explained by pH, β and concentrations of F and Ca (P < 0·05). pH was the variable with the highest impact in multiple regression and bivariate correlation analyses. Furthermore, a high bivariate correlation was also obtained between (pK - pI)HAP, (pK - pI)FAP and ΔSH.

Predictors and overestimation of recalled mobile phone use among children and adolescents

A growing body of literature addresses possible health effects of mobile phone use in children and adolescents by relying on the study participants' retrospective reconstruction of mobile phone use. In this study, we used data from the international case-control study CEFALO to compare self-reported with objectively operator-recorded mobile phone use. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of level of mobile phone use as well as factors that are associated with overestimating own mobile phone use. For cumulative number and duration of calls as well as for time since first subscription we calculated the ratio of self-reported to operator-recorded mobile phone use. We used multiple linear regression models to assess possible predictors of the average number and duration of calls per day and logistic regression models to assess possible predictors of overestimation. The cumulative number and duration of calls as well as the time since first subscription of mobile phones were overestimated on average by the study participants. Likelihood to overestimate number and duration of calls was not significantly different for controls compared to cases (OR=1.1, 95%-CI: 0.5 to 2.5 and OR=1.9, 95%-CI: 0.85 to 4.3, respectively). However, likelihood to overestimate was associated with other health related factors such as age and sex. As a consequence, such factors act as confounders in studies relying solely on self-reported mobile phone use and have to be considered in the analysis.

Comparison of pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and atrial remodeling in marathon versus non-marathon runners

Long-term endurance sports are associated with atrial remodeling and an increased risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter. Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (pro-ANP) is a marker of atrial wall tension and elevated in patients with AF. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that atrial remodeling would be perpetuated by repetitive episodes of atrial stretching during strenuous competitions, reflected by elevated levels of pro-ANP. A cross-sectional study was performed on nonelite runners scheduled to participate in the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race. Four hundred ninety-two marathon and nonmarathon runners applied for participation, 70 were randomly selected, and 56 entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to former marathon participations: a control group (nonmarathon runners, n = 22), group 1 (1 to 4 marathons, n = 16), and group 2 (≥5 marathons, n = 18). Results were adjusted for age, training years, and average weekly endurance training hours. The mean age was 42 ± 7 years. Compared to the control group, marathon runners in groups 1 and 2 had larger left atria (25 ± 6 vs 30 ± 6 vs 34 ± 7 ml/m(2), p = 0.002) and larger right atria (27 ± 7 vs 31 ± 8 vs 35 ± 5 ml/m(2), p = 0.024). Pro-ANP levels at baseline were higher in marathon runners (1.04 ± 0.38 vs 1.42 ± 0.74 vs 1.67 ± 0.69 nmol/L, p = 0.006). Pro-ANP increased significantly in all groups after the race. In multiple linear regression analysis, marathon participation was an independent predictor of left atrial (β = 0.427, p <0.001) and right atrial (β = 0.395, p = 0.006) remodeling. In conclusion, marathon running was associated with progressive left and right atrial remodeling, possibly induced by repetitive episodes of atrial stretching. The altered left and right atrial substrate may facilitate atrial arrhythmias.

A PRISMA assessment of the reporting quality of systematic reviews in orthodontics

Abstract Objectives: To assess the reporting quality of Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews (SR) in orthodontics and to compare the reporting quality (PRISMA score) with methodological quality (AMSTAR criteria). Materials and Methods: Systematic reviews (n  =  109) published between January 2000 and July 2011 in five leading orthodontic journals were identified and included. The quality of reporting of the included reviews was assessed by two authors in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. Each article was assigned a cumulative grade based on fulfillment of the applicable criteria, and an overall percentage score was assigned. Descriptive statistics and simple and multiple linear regression analyses were undertaken. Results: The mean overall PRISMA score was 64.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 62%-65%). The quality of reporting was considerably better in reviews published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (P < .001) than in non-Cochrane reviews. Both multivariable and univariable analysis indicated that journal of publication and number of authors was significantly associated with the PRISMA score. The association between AMSTAR score and modified PRISMA score was also found to be highly statistically significant. Conclusion: Compliance of orthodontic SRs published in orthodontic journals with PRISMA guidelines was deficient in several areas. The quality of reporting assessed using PRISMA guidelines was significantly better in orthodontic SRs published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews.

Long-term cardiac remodeling and arrhythmias in nonelite marathon runners

Long-term endurance sports are associated with atrial remodeling and atrial arrhythmias. More importantly, high-level endurance training may promote right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and complex ventricular arrhythmias. We investigated the long-term consequences of marathon running on cardiac remodeling as a potential substrate for arrhythmias with a focus on the right heart. We invited runners of the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race. Of 873 marathon and nonmarathon runners who applied, 122 (61 women) entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to former marathon participations: control group (nonmarathon runners, n = 34), group 1 (1 marathon to 5 marathons, mean 2.7, n = 46), and group 2 (≥6 marathons, mean 12.8, n = 42). Mean age was 42 ± 7 years. Results were adjusted for gender, age, and lifetime training hours. Right and left atrial sizes increased with marathon participations. In group 2, right and left atrial enlargements were present in 60% and 74% of athletes, respectively. RV and left ventricular (LV) dimensions showed no differences among groups, and RV or LV dilatation was present in only 2.4% or 4.3% of marathon runners, respectively. In multiple linear regression analysis, marathon participation was an independent predictor of right and left atrial sizes but had no effect on RV and LV dimensions and function. Atrial and ventricular ectopic complexes during 24-hour Holter monitoring were low and equally distributed among groups. In conclusion, in nonelite athletes, marathon running was not associated with RV enlargement, dysfunction, or ventricular ectopy. Marathon running promoted biatrial remodeling.

Genome-wide identification of quantitative trait loci in a cross between Hampshire and Landrace I: carcass traits

We report the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting carcass composition, carcass length, fat deposition and lean meat content using a genome scan across 462 animals from a combined intercross and backcross between Hampshire and Landrace pigs. Data were analysed using multiple linear regression fitting additive and dominance effects. This model was compared with a model including a parent-of-origin effect to spot evidence of imprinting. Several precisely defined muscle phenotypes were measured in order to dissect body composition in more detail. Three significant QTL were detected in the study at the 1% genome-wide level, and twelve significant QTL were detected at the 5% genome-wide level. These QTL comprise loci affecting fat deposition and lean meat content on SSC1, 4, 9, 10, 13 and 16, a locus on SSC2 affecting the ratio between weight of meat and bone in back and weight of meat and bone in ham and two loci affecting carcass length on SSC12 and 17. The well-defined phenotypes in this study enabled us to detect QTL for sizes of individual muscles and to obtain information of relevance for the description of the complexity underlying other carcass traits.

Curing capability of halogen and LED light curing units in deep class II cavities in extracted human molars

Class II cavities were prepared in extracted lower molars filled and cured in three 2-mm increments using a metal matrix. Three composites (Spectrum TPH A4, Ceram X mono M7 and Tetric Ceram A4) were cured with both the SmartLite PS LED LCU and the Spectrum 800 continuous cure halogen LCU using curing cycles of 10, 20 and 40 seconds. Each increment was cured before adding the next. After a seven-day incubation period, the composite specimens were removed from the teeth, embedded in self-curing resin and ground to half the orofacial width. Knoop microhardness was determined 100, 200, 500, 1000, 1500, 2500, 3500, 4500 and 5500 microm from the occlusal surface at a distance of 150 microm and 1000 microm from the metal matrix. The total degree of polymerization of a composite specimen for any given curing time and curing light was determined by calculating the area under the hardness curve. Hardness values 150 microm from the metal matrix never reached maximum values and were generally lower than those 1000 microm from the matrix. The hardest composite was usually encountered between 200 microm and 1000 microm from the occlusal surface. For every composite-curing time combination, there was an increase in microhardness at the top of each increment (measurements at 500, 2500 and 4500 microm) and a decrease towards the bottom of each increment (measurements at 1500, 3500 and 5500 microm). Longer curing times were usually combined with harder composite samples. Spectrum TPH composite was the only composite showing a satisfactory degree of polymerization for all three curing times and both LCUs. Multiple linear regression showed that only the curing time (p < 0.001) and composite material (p < 0.001) had a significant association with the degree of polymerization. The degree of polymerization achieved by the LED LCU was not significantly different from that achieved by the halogen LCU (p = 0.54).

Sleepless night, the moon is bright: longitudinal study of lunar phase and sleep

Popular belief holds that the lunar cycle affects human physiology, behaviour and health. We examined the influence of moon phase on sleep duration in a secondary analysis of a feasibility study of mobile telephone base stations and sleep quality. We studied 31 volunteers (18 women and 13 men, mean age 50 years) from a suburban area of Switzerland longitudinally over 6 weeks, including two full moons. Subjective sleep duration was calculated from sleep diary data. Data were analysed using multiple linear regression models with random effects. Mean sleep duration was 6 h 49 min. Subjective sleep duration varied with the lunar cycle, from 6 h 41 min at full moon to 7 h 00 min at new moon (P < 0.001). Average sleep duration was shortened by 68 min during the week compared with weekends (P < 0.001). Men slept 17 min longer than women (P < 0.001) and sleep duration decreased with age (P < 0.001). There was also evidence that rating of fatigue in the morning was associated with moon phase, with more tiredness (P = 0.027) at full moon. The study was designed for other purposes and the association between lunar cycle and sleep duration will need to be confirmed in further studies.

Microhardness and marginal adaptation of pre-warmed composites

Objectives: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of pre-warmed composite on the microhardness and marginal adaptation. Methods: Ninety six identical class II cavities were prepared in extracted human molars and filled/cured in three 2 mm increments using a metal matrix. Two composites (Tetric Evo Ceram (IvoclarVivadent) and ELS(Saremco)) were cured with a LED curing unit (Bluephase (IvoclarVivadent)) using curing cycles of 20 and 40 seconds. The composite was used at room temperature or pre-warmed at 54.5ºC (Calset(AdDent)). Twelve teeth were filled for every composite-curing time-composite temperature combination. The teeth were thermocycled (1000 cycles at 5º and 55ºC) and then stored at 37° C for seven days . Dye penetration (basic fuchsine 5% for 8 hours) was measured using a score scale. Knoop microhardness was determined 100, 200, 500, 1000, 1500, 2500, 3500, 4500 and 5500µm from the occlusal surface at a distance of 150 and 1000µm from the metal matrix. The total degree of polymerization of a composite specimen was determined by calculating the area under the hardness curve. Results: Statistical analyses showed no difference in marginal adaptation (p>0.05). Hardness values at 150µm from the matrix were lower than those at 1000µm. There was an increase of the microhardness at the top of each increment and decrease towards the bottom of each increment. Longer curing times resulted in harder composite samples. Multiple linear regression showed that only the curing time (p<0.001) and composite material (p<0.001) had a significant association with the degree of polymerization. The degree of polymerization was not influenced by pre-warming the composite at a temperature of 54.5ºC (p=4.86). Conclusion: Polymerization time can not be reduced by pre-warming the composite on a temperature of 54.5ºC. The marginal adaptation is not compromised by pre-warming the composite.

Determinants of reduced walking speed in people with musculoskeletal pain

OBJECTIVE: Maintenance of good walking speed is essential to independent living. People with musculoskeletal disease often have reduced walking speed. We investigated determinants of slower walking, other than musculoskeletal disease, that might provide valuable additional targets for therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Somerset and Avon Survey of Health, a community based survey of people aged over 35 years. A total of 2703 participants who reported hip or knee pain at baseline (1994/1995) were studied, and reassessed in 2002-2003; 1696 were available for followup, and walking speed was tested in 1074. Walking speed (m/s) was used as outcome measure. Baseline characteristics, including comorbidities and socioeconomic factors, were tested for their ability to predict reduced walking speed using multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Age, female sex, and immobility at baseline were predictive of slower walking speed. Other independent risk factors included the presence of cataract, low socioeconomic status, intermittent claudication, and other cardiovascular conditions. Having a cataract was associated with a decrease of 0.10 m/s (95% CI 0.03, 0.16). Those in social class V had a walking speed 0.22 m/s (95% CI 0.126, 0.31) slower than those in social class I. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities, age, female sex, and lower socioeconomic position determine walking speed in people with joint pain. Issues such as poor vision and social-economic disadvantage may add to the effect of musculoskeletal disease, suggesting the need for a holistic approach to management of these patients.