Limit theorems for nondegenerate U-statistics of continuous semimartingales

This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate U-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the U-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.

A Novel Method for the Homogenization of Daily Temperature Series and Its Relevance for Climate Change Analysis

Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.

Statistical analysis of personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurements with nondetects

Exposimeters are increasingly applied in bioelectromagnetic research to determine personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) exposure. The main advantages of exposimeter measurements are their convenient handling for study participants and the large amount of personal exposure data, which can be obtained for several RF-EMF sources. However, the large proportion of measurements below the detection limit is a challenge for data analysis. With the robust ROS (regression on order statistics) method, summary statistics can be calculated by fitting an assumed distribution to the observed data. We used a preliminary sample of 109 weekly exposimeter measurements from the QUALIFEX study to compare summary statistics computed by robust ROS with a naïve approach, where values below the detection limit were replaced by the value of the detection limit. For the total RF-EMF exposure, differences between the naïve approach and the robust ROS were moderate for the 90th percentile and the arithmetic mean. However, exposure contributions from minor RF-EMF sources were considerably overestimated with the naïve approach. This results in an underestimation of the exposure range in the population, which may bias the evaluation of potential exposure-response associations. We conclude from our analyses that summary statistics of exposimeter data calculated by robust ROS are more reliable and more informative than estimates based on a naïve approach. Nevertheless, estimates of source-specific medians or even lower percentiles depend on the assumed data distribution and should be considered with caution.

Quantifying the periodicty of Inter Movement Intervals of Leg Movements

ims: Periodic leg movements in sleep (PLMS) are a frequent finding in polysomnography. Most patients with restless legs syndrome (RLS) display PLMS. However, since PLMS are also often recorded in healthy elderly subjects, the clinical significance of PLMS is still discussed controversially. Leg movements are seen concurrently with arousals in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) may also appear periodically. Quantitative assessment of the periodicity of LM/PLM as measured by inter movement intervals (IMI) is difficult. This is mainly due to influencing factors like sleep architecture and sleep stage, medication, inter and intra patient variability, the arbitrary amplitude and sequence criteria which tend to broaden the IMI distributions or make them even multi-modal. Methods: Here a statistical method is presented that enables eliminating such effects from the raw data before analysing the statistics of IMI. Rather than studying the absolute size of IMI (measured in seconds) we focus on the shape of their distribution (suitably normalized IMI). To this end we employ methods developed in Random Matrix Theory (RMT). Patients: The periodicity of leg movements (LM) of four patient groups (10 to 15 each) showing LM without PLMS (group 1), OSA without PLMS (group 2), PLMS and OSA (group 3) as well as PLMS without OSA (group 4) are compared. Results: The IMI of patients without PLMS (groups 1 and 2) and with PLMS (groups 3 and 4) are statistically different. In patients without PLMS the distribution of normalized IMI resembles closely the one of random events. In contrary IMI of PLMS patients show features of periodic systems (e.g. a pendulum) when studied in normalized manner. Conclusions: For quantifying PLMS periodicity proper normalization of the IMI is crucial. Without this procedure important features are hidden when grouping LM/PLM over whole nights or across patients. The clinical significance of PLMS might be eluded when properly separating random LM from LM that show features of periodic systems.

Assessing dynamics of forced livestock movements, livelihoods and future development options for pastoralists/agro-pastoralists in Ruvuma and Lindi Regions, in the Southern Tanzania

The study that aimed at understanding the dynamics of forced livestock movements and pastoral livelihood and development options was conducted in Lindi and Ruvuma regions, using both formal and informal approaches. Data were collected from 60 randomly selected Agro-pastoralists/Pastoralists and native farmers using a structured questionnaire. Four villages were involved; two in Lindi region (Matandu and Mkwajuni) and the other two in Ruvuma region (Gumbiro and Muhuwesi). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics of SPSS to generate means and frequencies. The results indicate that a large number of animals moved into the study area following the eviction order of the government in Ihefu wetlands in 2006/2007. Lindi region was earmarked by the government to receive all the evicted pastoralists. However, by 2008 only 30% of the total cattle that were expected to move into the region had been received. Deaths of many animals on transit, selling of the animals to pay for transportation and other costs while on transit and many pastoralists settling in Coastal and Ruvuma regions before reaching their destinations were reported to be the reasons for the discrepancy observed. To mitigate anticipated conflicts between farmers and pastoralists, Participatory Land Use Management (PLUM) plans were developed in all the study villages in order to demarcate village land area into different uses, including grazing, cropping, settlement and forests. Land units for grazing were supposed to be provided with all necessary livestock infrastructures (dips, charcoal dams, livestock markets and stock routes). However, the land use plans were not able to prevent the anticipated conflicts because most of the livestock infrastructures were lacking, the land use boundaries were not clearly demarcated and there was limited enforcement of village by-laws, since most had not been enacted by the respective district councils. Similarly, the areas allocated for grazing were inadequate for the number of livestock available and thus the carrying capacity exceeded. Thus, land resource-based conflicts between farmers and pastoralists were emerging in the study areas for the reason that most of the important components in the PLUM plans were not in place. Nevertheless, the arrival of pastoralists in the study areas had positive effects on food security and growth of social interactions between pastoralists and farmers including marriages between them. Environmental degradations due to the arrival of livestock were also not evident. Thus, there is a need for the government to purposely set aside enough grazing land with all necessary infrastructures in place for the agro-pastoral/pastoral communities in the country.

Impacts of a word-picture training on literacy skills in elementary school children and youths with intellectual disabilities

Objective: There is convincing evidence that phonological, orthographic and semantic processes influence children’s ability to learn to read and spell words. So far only a few studies investigated the influence of implicit learning in literacy skills. Children are sensitive to the statistics of their learning environment. By frequent reading they acquire implicit knowledge about the frequency of letter patterns in written words, and they use this knowledge during reading and spelling. Additionally, semantic connections facilitate to storing of words in memory. Thus, the aim of the intervention study was to implement a word-picture training which is based on statistical and semantic learning. Furthermore, we aimed at examining the training effects in reading and spelling in comparison to an auditory-visual matching training and a working memory training program. Participants and Methods: One hundred and thirty-two children aged between 8 and 11 years participated in training in three weekly session of 12 minutes over 8 weeks, and completed other assessments of reading, spelling, working memory and intelligence before and after training. Results: Results revealed in general that the word-picture training and the auditory-visual matching training led to substantial gains in reading and spelling performance in comparison to the working-memory training. Although both children with and without learning difficulties profited in their reading and spelling after the word-picture training, the training program led to differential effects for the two groups. After the word-picture training on the one hand, children with learning difficulties profited more in spelling as children without learning difficulties, on the other hand, children without learning difficulties benefit more in word comprehension. Conclusions: These findings highlight the need for frequent reading trainings with semantic connections in order to support the acquisition of literacy skills.

Impacts of a word-picture training on reading in youth with mixed intellectual disabilities. A waiting-list control group comparison

Individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID) often struggle with learning how to read. Reading difficulties seem to be the most common secondary condition of ID. Only one in five children with mild or moderate ID achieves even minimal literacy skills. However, literacy education for children and adolescents with ID has been largely overlooked by researchers and educators. While there is little research on reading of children with ID, many training studies have been conducted with other populations with reading difficulties. The most common approach of acquiring literacy skills consists of sophisticated programs that train phonological skills and auditory perception. Only few studies investigated the influence of implicit learning on literacy skills. Implicit learning processes seem to be largely independent of age and IQ. Children are sensitive to the statistics of their learning environment. By frequent word reading they acquire implicit knowledge about the frequency of single letters and letter patterns in written words. Additionally, semantic connections not only improve the word understanding, but also facilitate storage of words in memory. Advances in communication technology have introduced new possibilities for remediating literacy skills. Computers can provide training material in attractive ways, for example through animations and immediate feedback .These opportunities can scaffold and support attention processes central to learning. Thus, the aim of this intervention study was to develop and implement a computer based word-picture training, which is based on statistical and semantic learning, and to examine the training effects on reading, spelling and attention in children and adolescents (9-16 years) diagnosed with mental retardation (general IQ  74). Fifty children participated in four to five weekly training sessions of 15-20 minutes over 4 weeks, and completed assessments of attention, reading, spelling, short-term memory and fluid intelligence before and after training. After a first assessment (T1), the entire sample was divided in a training group (group A) and a waiting control group (group B). After 4 weeks of training with group A, a second assessment (T2) was administered with both training groups. Afterwards, group B was trained for 4 weeks, before a last assessment (T3) was carried out in both groups. Overall, the results showed that the word-picture training led to substantial gains on word decoding and attention for both training groups. These effects were preserved six weeks later (group A). There was also a clear tendency of improvement in spelling after training for both groups, although the effect did not reach significance. These findings highlight the fact that an implicit statistical learning training in a playful way by motivating computer programs can not only promote reading development, but also attention in children with intellectual disabilities.

Trends in mean and extreme precipitation in the Mount Kenya region from observations and reanalyses

Land and water management in semi-arid regions requires detailed information on precipitation distribution, including extremes, and changes therein. Such information is often lacking. This paper describes statistics of mean and extreme precipitation in a unique data set from the Mount Kenya region, encompassing around 50 stations with at least 30 years of data. We describe the data set, including quality control procedures and statistical break detection. Trends in mean precipitation and extreme indices calculated from these data for individual rainy seasons are compared with corresponding trends in reanalysis products. From 1979 to 2011, mean precipitation decreased at 75% of the stations during the ‘long rains’ (March to May) and increased at 70% of the stations during the ‘short rains’ (October to December). Corresponding trends are found in the number of heavy precipitation days, and maximum of consecutive 5-day precipitation. Conversely, an increase in consecutive dry days within both main rainy seasons is found. However, trends are only statistically significant in very few cases. Reanalysis data sets agree with observations with respect to interannual variability, while correlations are considerably lower for monthly deviations (ratios) from the mean annual cycle. While some products well reproduce the rainfall climatology and some the spatial trend pattern, no product reproduces both.

Rotating dust particles in the coma of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Context. During September and October 2014, the OSIRIS cameras onboard the ESA Rosetta mission detected millions of single particles. Many of these dust particles appear as long tracks (due to both the dust proper motion and the spacecraft motion during the exposure time) with a clear brightness periodicity. Aims. We interpret the observed periodic features as a rotational and translational motion of aspherical dust grains. Methods. By counting the peaks of each track, we obtained statistics of a rotation frequency. We compared these results with the rotational frequency predicted by a model of aspherical dust grain dynamics in a model gas flow. By testing many possible sets of physical conditions and grain characteristics, we constrained the rotational properties of dust grains. Results. We analyzed on the motion of rotating aspherical dust grains with different cross sections in flow conditions corresponding to the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on the OSIRIS observations, we constrain the possible physical parameters of the grains.

Comment on “Low time resolution analysis of polar ice cores cannot detect impulsive nitrate events” by D.F. Smart et al.

Smart et al. (2014) suggested that the detection of nitrate spikes in polar ice cores from solar energetic particle (SEP) events could be achieved if an analytical system with sufficiently high resolution was used. Here we show that the spikes they associate with SEP events are not reliably recorded in cores from the same location, even when the resolution is clearly adequate. We explain the processes that limit the effective resolution of ice cores. Liquid conductivity data suggest that the observed spikes are associated with sodium or another nonacidic cation, making it likely that they result from deposition of sea salt or similar aerosol that has scavenged nitrate, rather than from a primary input of nitrate in the troposphere. We consider that there is no evidence at present to support the identification of any spikes in nitrate as representing SEP events. Although such events undoubtedly create nitrate in the atmosphere, we see no plausible route to using nitrate spikes to document the statistics of such events.

The Carrington event not observed in most ice core nitrate records

The Carrington Event of 1859 is considered to be among the largest space weather events of the last 150 years. We show that only one out of 14 well-resolved ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica has a nitrate spike dated to 1859. No sharp spikes are observed in the Antarctic cores studied here. In Greenland numerous spikes are observed in the 40 years surrounding 1859, but where other chemistry was measured, all large spikes have the unequivocal signal, including co-located spikes in ammonium, formate, black carbon and vanillic acid, of biomass burning plumes. It seems certain that most spikes in an earlier core, including that claimed for 1859, are also due to biomass burning plumes, and not to solar energetic particle (SEP) events. We conclude that an event as large as the Carrington Event did not leave an observable, widespread imprint in nitrate in polar ice. Nitrate spikes cannot be used to derive the statistics of SEPs.

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.