Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Improved star camera attitude data and their effect on the gravity field

Efforts are ongoing to decrease the noise of the GRACE gravity field models and hence to arrive closer to the GRACE baseline. The most significant error sources belong the untreated errors in the observation data and the imperfections in the background models. The recent study (Bandikova&Flury,2014) revealed that the current release of the star camera attitude data (SCA1B RL02) contain noise systematically higher than expected by about a factor 3-4. This is due to an incorrect implementation of the algorithms for quaternion combination in the JPL processing routines. Generating improved SCA data requires that valid data from both star camera heads are available which is not always the case because the Sun and Moon at times blind one camera. In the gravity field modeling, the attitude data are needed for the KBR antenna offset correction and to orient the non-gravitational linear accelerations sensed by the accelerometer. Hence any improvement in the SCA data is expected to be reflected in the gravity field models. In order to quantify the effect on the gravity field, we processed one month of observation data using two different approaches: the celestial mechanics approach (AIUB) and the variational equations approach (ITSG). We show that the noise in the KBR observations and the linear accelerations has effectively decreased. However, the effect on the gravity field on a global scale is hardly evident. We conclude that, at the current level of accuracy, the errors seen in the temporal gravity fields are dominated by errors coming from sources other than the attitude data.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Is it safe to discontinue primary Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia prophylaxis in patients with virologically suppressed HIV infection and a CD4 cell count <200 cells/microL?

Current guidelines suggest that primary prophylaxis for Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PcP) can be safely stopped in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients who are receiving combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) and who have a CD4 cell count >200 cells/microL. There are few data regarding the incidence of PcP or safety of stopping prophylaxis in virologically suppressed patients with CD4 cell counts of 101-200 cells/microL.

Characterization of novel StAR (steroidogenic acute regulatory protein) mutations causing non-classic lipoid adrenal hyperplasia

Context Steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR) is crucial for transport of cholesterol to mitochondria where biosynthesis of steroids is initiated. Loss of StAR function causes lipoid congenital adrenal hyperplasia (LCAH). Objective StAR gene mutations causing partial loss of function manifest atypical and may be mistaken as familial glucocorticoid deficiency. Only a few mutations have been reported. Design To report clinical, biochemical, genetic, protein structure and functional data on two novel StAR mutations, and to compare them with published literature. Setting Collaboration between the University Children's Hospital Bern, Switzerland, and the CIBERER, Hospital Vall d'Hebron, Autonomous University, Barcelona, Spain. Patients Two subjects of a non-consanguineous Caucasian family were studied. The 46,XX phenotypic normal female was diagnosed with adrenal insufficiency at the age of 10 months, had normal pubertal development and still has no signs of hypergonodatropic hypogonadism at 32 years of age. Her 46,XY brother was born with normal male external genitalia and was diagnosed with adrenal insufficiency at 14 months. Puberty was normal and no signs of hypergonadotropic hypogonadism are present at 29 years of age. Results StAR gene analysis revealed two novel compound heterozygote mutations T44HfsX3 and G221S. T44HfsX3 is a loss-of-function StAR mutation. G221S retains partial activity (~30%) and is therefore responsible for a milder, non-classic phenotype. G221S is located in the cholesterol binding pocket and seems to alter binding/release of cholesterol. Conclusions StAR mutations located in the cholesterol binding pocket (V187M, R188C, R192C, G221D/S) seem to cause non-classic lipoid CAH. Accuracy of genotype-phenotype prediction by in vitro testing may vary with the assays employed.

CD4 cell count and the risk of AIDS or death in HIV-Infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy with a suppressed viral load: a longitudinal cohort study from COHERE

Background Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load. Methods and Findings Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50–500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30–0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71–0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66–0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92–0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl. Conclusions Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl.

Electronic medical record systems, data quality and loss to follow-up: survey of antiretroviral therapy programmes in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE: To describe the electronic medical databases used in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in lower-income countries and assess the measures such programmes employ to maintain and improve data quality and reduce the loss of patients to follow-up. METHODS: In 15 countries of Africa, South America and Asia, a survey was conducted from December 2006 to February 2007 on the use of electronic medical record systems in ART programmes. Patients enrolled in the sites at the time of the survey but not seen during the previous 12 months were considered lost to follow-up. The quality of the data was assessed by computing the percentage of missing key variables (age, sex, clinical stage of HIV infection, CD4+ lymphocyte count and year of ART initiation). Associations between site characteristics (such as number of staff members dedicated to data management), measures to reduce loss to follow-up (such as the presence of staff dedicated to tracing patients) and data quality and loss to follow-up were analysed using multivariate logit models. FINDINGS: Twenty-one sites that together provided ART to 50 060 patients were included (median number of patients per site: 1000; interquartile range, IQR: 72-19 320). Eighteen sites (86%) used an electronic database for medical record-keeping; 15 (83%) such sites relied on software intended for personal or small business use. The median percentage of missing data for key variables per site was 10.9% (IQR: 2.0-18.9%) and declined with training in data management (odds ratio, OR: 0.58; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.37-0.90) and weekly hours spent by a clerk on the database per 100 patients on ART (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90-0.99). About 10 weekly hours per 100 patients on ART were required to reduce missing data for key variables to below 10%. The median percentage of patients lost to follow-up 1 year after starting ART was 8.5% (IQR: 4.2-19.7%). Strategies to reduce loss to follow-up included outreach teams, community-based organizations and checking death registry data. Implementation of all three strategies substantially reduced losses to follow-up (OR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.15-0.20). CONCLUSION: The quality of the data collected and the retention of patients in ART treatment programmes are unsatisfactory for many sites involved in the scale-up of ART in resource-limited settings, mainly because of insufficient staff trained to manage data and trace patients lost to follow-up.

CD4 count slope and mortality in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: multicohort analysis from South Africa

BACKGROUND In many resource-limited settings monitoring of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is based on the current CD4 count, with limited access to HIV RNA tests or laboratory diagnostics. We examined whether the CD4 count slope over 6 months could provide additional prognostic information. METHODS We analyzed data from a large multicohort study in South Africa, where HIV RNA is routinely monitored. Adult HIV-positive patients initiating cART between 2003 and 2010 were included. Mortality was analyzed in Cox models; CD4 count slope by HIV RNA level was assessed using linear mixed models. RESULTS About 44,829 patients (median age: 35 years, 58% female, median CD4 count at cART initiation: 116 cells/mm) were followed up for a median of 1.9 years, with 3706 deaths. Mean CD4 count slopes per week ranged from 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 1.6] cells per cubic millimeter when HIV RNA was <400 copies per milliliter to -0.32 (95% CI: -0.47 to -0.18) cells per cubic millimeter with >100,000 copies per milliliter. The association of CD4 slope with mortality depended on current CD4 count: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHRs) comparing a >25% increase over 6 months with a >25% decrease was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79) at <100 cells per cubic millimeter but 1.11 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.58) at 201-350 cells per cubic millimeter. In contrast, the aHR for current CD4 count, comparing >350 with <100 cells per cubic millimeter, was 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.20). CONCLUSIONS Absolute CD4 count remains a strong risk for mortality with a stable effect size over the first 4 years of cART. However, CD4 count slope and HIV RNA provide independently added to the model.

Dirichlet-Neumann inverse spectral problem for a star graph of Stieltjes strings

We solve two inverse spectral problems for star graphs of Stieltjes strings with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions, respectively, at a selected vertex called root. The root is either the central vertex or, in the more challenging problem, a pendant vertex of the star graph. At all other pendant vertices Dirichlet conditions are imposed; at the central vertex, at which a mass may be placed, continuity and Kirchhoff conditions are assumed. We derive conditions on two sets of real numbers to be the spectra of the above Dirichlet and Neumann problems. Our solution for the inverse problems is constructive: we establish algorithms to recover the mass distribution on the star graph (i.e. the point masses and lengths of subintervals between them) from these two spectra and from the lengths of the separate strings. If the root is a pendant vertex, the two spectra uniquely determine the parameters on the main string (i.e. the string incident to the root) if the length of the main string is known. The mass distribution on the other edges need not be unique; the reason for this is the non-uniqueness caused by the non-strict interlacing of the given data in the case when the root is the central vertex. Finally, we relate of our results to tree-patterned matrix inverse problems.

Pre-therapy inflammation and coagulation activation and long-term CD4 count responses to the initiation of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES Pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) inflammation and coagulation activation predict clinical outcomes in HIV-positive individuals. We assessed whether pre-ART inflammatory marker levels predicted the CD4 count response to ART. METHODS Analyses were based on data from the Strategic Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) trial, an international trial evaluating continuous vs. interrupted ART, and the Flexible Initial Retrovirus Suppressive Therapies (FIRST) trial, evaluating three first-line ART regimens with at least two drug classes. For this analysis, participants had to be ART-naïve or off ART at randomization and (re)starting ART and have C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and D-dimer measured pre-ART. Using random effects linear models, we assessed the association between each of the biomarker levels, categorized as quartiles, and change in CD4 count from ART initiation to 24 months post-ART. Analyses adjusted for CD4 count at ART initiation (baseline), study arm, follow-up time and other known confounders. RESULTS Overall, 1084 individuals [659 from SMART (26% ART naïve) and 425 from FIRST] met the eligibility criteria, providing 8264 CD4 count measurements. Seventy-five per cent of individuals were male with the mean age of 42 years. The median (interquartile range) baseline CD4 counts were 416 (350-530) and 100 (22-300) cells/μL in SMART and FIRST, respectively. All of the biomarkers were inversely associated with baseline CD4 count in FIRST but not in SMART. In adjusted models, there was no clear relationship between changing biomarker levels and mean change in CD4 count post-ART (P for trend: CRP, P = 0.97; IL-6, P = 0.25; and D-dimer, P = 0.29). CONCLUSIONS Pre-ART inflammation and coagulation activation do not predict CD4 count response to ART and appear to influence the risk of clinical outcomes through other mechanisms than blunting long-term CD4 count gain.

Initiation of rivaroxaban in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at the primary care level:: The Swiss Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation for the Regulation of Coagulation (STAR) Study.

BACKGROUND Rivaroxaban has become an alternative to vitamin-K antagonists (VKA) for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) patients due to its favourable risk-benefit profile in the restrictive setting of a large randomized trial. However in the primary care setting, physician's motivation to begin with rivaroxaban, treatment satisfaction and the clinical event rate after the initiation of rivaroxaban are not known. METHODS Prospective data collection by 115 primary care physicians in Switzerland on consecutive nonvalvular AF patients with newly established rivaroxaban anticoagulation with 3-month follow-up. RESULTS We enrolled 537 patients (73±11years, 57% men) with mean CHADS2 and HAS-BLED-scores of 2.2±1.3 and 2.4±1.1, respectively: 301(56%) were switched from VKA to rivaroxaban (STR-group) and 236(44%) were VKA-naïve (VN-group). Absence of routine coagulation monitoring (68%) and fixed-dose once-daily treatment (58%) were the most frequent criteria for physicians to initiate rivaroxaban. In the STR-group, patient's satisfaction increased from 3.6±1.4 under VKA to 5.5±0.8 points (P<0.001), and overall physician satisfaction from 3.9±1.3 to 5.4±0.9 points (P<0.001) at 3months of rivaroxaban therapy (score from 1 to 6 with higher scores indicating greater satisfaction). In the VN-group, both patient's (5.4±0.9) and physician's satisfaction (5.5±0.7) at follow-up were comparable to the STR-group. During follow-up, 1(0.19%; 95%CI, 0.01-1.03%) ischemic stroke, 2(0.37%; 95%CI, 0.05-1.34%) major non-fatal bleeding and 11(2.05%; 95%CI, 1.03-3.64%) minor bleeding complications occurred. Rivaroxaban was stopped in 30(5.6%) patients, with side effects being the most frequent reason. CONCLUSION Initiation of rivaroxaban for patients with nonvalvular AF by primary care physicians was associated with a low clinical event rate and with high overall patient's and physician's satisfaction.

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies. METHODS We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands. RESULTS The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

Mechanical Thrombectomy for Isolated M2 Occlusions: A Post Hoc Analysis of the STAR, SWIFT, and SWIFT PRIME Studies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Mechanical thrombectomy is beneficial for patients with acute ischemic stroke and a proximal anterior occlusion, but it is unclear if these results can be extrapolated to patients with an M2 occlusion. The purpose of this study was to examine the technical aspects, safety, and outcomes of mechanical thrombectomy with a stent retriever in patients with an isolated M2 occlusion who were included in 3 large multicenter prospective studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS We included patients from the Solitaire Flow Restoration Thrombectomy for Acute Revascularization (STAR), Solitaire With the Intention For Thrombectomy (SWIFT), and Solitaire With the Intention for Thrombectomy as Primary Endovascular Treatment (SWIFT PRIME) studies, 3 large multicenter prospective studies on thrombectomy for ischemic stroke. We compared outcomes and technical details of patients with an M2 with those with an M1 occlusion. All patients were treated with a stent retriever. Imaging data and outcomes were scored by an independent core laboratory. Successful reperfusion was defined as modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction score of 2b/3. RESULTS We included 50 patients with an M2 and 249 patients with an M1 occlusion. Patients with an M2 occlusion were older (mean age, 71 versus 67 years; P = .04) and had a lower NIHSS score (median, 13 versus 17; P < .001) compared with those with an M1 occlusion. Procedural time was nonsignificantly shorter in patients with an M2 occlusion (median, 29 versus 35 minutes; P = .41). The average number of passes with a stent retriever was also nonsignificantly lower in patients with an M2 occlusion (mean, 1.4 versus 1.7; P = .07). There were no significant differences in successful reperfusion (85% versus 82%, P = .82), symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhages (2% versus 2%, P = 1.0), device-related serious adverse events (6% versus 4%, P = .46), or modified Rankin Scale score 0-2 at follow-up (60% versus 56%, P = .64). CONCLUSIONS Endovascular reperfusion therapy appears to be feasible in selected patients with ischemic stroke and an M2 occlusion.