Stakeholder analysis combined with social network analysis provides fine-grained insights into water infrastructure planning processes

Environmental policy and decision-making are characterized by complex interactions between different actors and sectors. As a rule, a stakeholder analysis is performed to understand those involved, but it has been criticized for lacking quality and consistency. This lack is remedied here by a formal social network analysis that investigates collaborative and multi-level governance settings in a rigorous way. We examine the added value of combining both elements. Our case study examines infrastructure planning in the Swiss water sector. Water supply and wastewater infrastructures are planned far into the future, usually on the basis of projections of past boundary conditions. They affect many actors, including the population, and are expensive. In view of increasing future dynamics and climate change, a more participatory and long-term planning approach is required. Our specific aims are to investigate fragmentation in water infrastructure planning, to understand how actors from different decision levels and sectors are represented, and which interests they follow. We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders, but also cantonal and national actors. The network analysis confirmed our hypothesis of strong fragmentation: we found little collaboration between the water supply and wastewater sector (confirming horizontal fragmentation), and few ties between local, cantonal, and national actors (confirming vertical fragmentation). Infrastructure planning is clearly dominated by engineers and local authorities. Little importance is placed on longer-term strategic objectives and integrated catchment planning, but this was perceived as more important in a second analysis going beyond typical questions of stakeholder analysis. We conclude that linking a stakeholder analysis, comprising rarely asked questions, with a rigorous social network analysis is very fruitful and generates complementary results. This combination gave us deeper insight into the socio-political-engineering world of water infrastructure planning that is of vital importance to our well-being.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Performance of fluorescence methods, radiographic examination and ICDAS II on occlusal surfaces in vitro

This study compared the performance of fluorescence-based methods, radiographic examination, and International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II on occlusal surfaces. One hundred and nineteen permanent human molars were assessed twice by 2 experienced dentists using the laser fluorescence (LF and LFpen) and fluorescence camera (FC) devices, ICDAS II and bitewing radiographs (BW). After measuring, the teeth were histologically prepared and assessed for caries extension. The sensitivities for dentine caries detection were 0.86 (FC), 0.78 (LFpen), 0.73 (ICDAS II), 0.51 (LF) and 0.34 (BW). The specificities were 0.97 (BW), 0.89 (LF), 0.65 (ICDAS II), 0.63 (FC) and 0.56 (LFpen). BW presented the highest values of likelihood ratio (LR)+ (12.47) and LR- (0.68). Rank correlations with histology were 0.53 (LF), 0.52 (LFpen), 0.41 (FC), 0.59 (ICDAS II) and 0.57 (BW). The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.72 to 0.83. Inter- and intraexaminer intraclass correlation values were respectively 0.90 and 0.85 (LF), 0.93 and 0.87 (LFpen) and 0.85 and 0.76 (FC). The ICDAS II kappa values were 0.51 (interexaminer) and 0.61 (intraexaminer). The BW kappa values were 0.50 (interexaminer) and 0.62 (intraexaminer). The Bland and Altman limits of agreement were 46.0 and 38.2 (LF), 55.6 and 40.0 (LFpen) and 1.12 and 0.80 (FC), for intra- and interexaminer reproducibilities. The posttest probability for dentine caries detection was high for BW and LF. In conclusion, LFpen, FC and ICDAS II presented better sensitivity and LF and BW better specificity. ICDAS II combined with BW showed the best performance and is the best combination for detecting caries on occlusal surfaces.

Managing water resources in dynamic settings: A multi-level, multi-stakeholder perspective

The aim of the present article is to contribute to the debate on the role of research in sustainable management of water and related resources, based on experiences in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro and Pangani river basins in East Africa. Both basins are characterised by humid, resource-rich highlands and extensive semi-arid lowlands, by growing demand for water and related resources, and by numerous conflicting stakeholder interests. Issues of scale and level, on the one hand, and the normative dimension of sustainability, on the other hand, are identified as key challenges for research that seeks to produce relevant and applicable results for informed decision-making. A multi-level and multi-stakeholder perspective, defined on the basis of three minimal principles, is proposed here as an approach to research for informed decision-making. Key lessons learnt from applying these principles in the two river basins are presented and discussed in the light of current debate.

Impacts of environmental change on water resources in the Mount Kenya Region

Water resources are becoming increasingly scarce in the Mt. Kenya region. Land use and climate change may pose additional challenges to water management in the future. In order to assess the impacts of environmental change, the NRM3 Streamflow Model, a simple, semi-distributed, grid-based water balance model, is evaluated as a tool for discharge prediction in six meso-scale catchments on the western slopes of Mt. Kenya, and used to analyse the impact of land use and climate change scenarios on water resources.