59 resultados para Spatiotemporal change model

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Objective: Compensatory health beliefs (CHBs), defined as beliefs that healthy behaviours can compensate for unhealthy behaviours, may be one possible factor hindering people in adopting a healthier lifestyle. This study examined the contribution of CHBs to the prediction of adolescents’ physical activity within the theoretical framework of the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA). Design: The study followed a prospective survey design with assessments at baseline (T1) and two weeks later (T2). Method: Questionnaire data on physical activity, HAPA variables and CHBs were obtained twice from 430 adolescents of four different Swiss schools. Multilevel modelling was applied. Results: CHBs added significantly to the prediction of intentions and change in intentions, in that higher CHBs were associated with lower intentions to be physically active at T2 and a reduction in intentions from T1 to T2. No effect of CHBs emerged for the prediction of self-reported levels of physical activity at T2 and change in physical activity from T1 to T2. Conclusion: Findings emphasise the relevance of examining CHBs in the context of an established health behaviour change model and suggest that CHBs are of particular importance in the process of intention formation.

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Synaptic strength depresses for low and potentiates for high activation of the postsynaptic neuron. This feature is a key property of the Bienenstock–Cooper–Munro (BCM) synaptic learning rule, which has been shown to maximize the selectivity of the postsynaptic neuron, and thereby offers a possible explanation for experience-dependent cortical plasticity such as orientation selectivity. However, the BCM framework is rate-based and a significant amount of recent work has shown that synaptic plasticity also depends on the precise timing of presynaptic and postsynaptic spikes. Here we consider a triplet model of spike-timing–dependent plasticity (STDP) that depends on the interactions of three precisely timed spikes. Triplet STDP has been shown to describe plasticity experiments that the classical STDP rule, based on pairs of spikes, has failed to capture. In the case of rate-based patterns, we show a tight correspondence between the triplet STDP rule and the BCM rule. We analytically demonstrate the selectivity property of the triplet STDP rule for orthogonal inputs and perform numerical simulations for nonorthogonal inputs. Moreover, in contrast to BCM, we show that triplet STDP can also induce selectivity for input patterns consisting of higher-order spatiotemporal correlations, which exist in natural stimuli and have been measured in the brain. We show that this sensitivity to higher-order correlations can be used to develop direction and speed selectivity.

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Organisms provide some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change and evolutionary responses are becoming apparent in species with short generation times. Large datasets on genetic polymorphism that can provide an historical benchmark against which to test for recent evolutionary responses are very rare, but an exception is found in the brown-lipped banded snail (Cepaea nemoralis). This species is sensitive to its thermal environment and exhibits several polymorphisms of shell colour and banding pattern affecting shell albedo in the majority of populations within its native range in Europe. We tested for evolutionary changes in shell albedo that might have been driven by the warming of the climate in Europe over the last half century by compiling an historical dataset for 6,515 native populations of C. nemoralis and comparing this with new data on nearly 3,000 populations. The new data were sampled mainly in 2009 through the Evolution MegaLab, a citizen science project that engaged thousands of volunteers in 15 countries throughout Europe in the biggest such exercise ever undertaken. A known geographic cline in the frequency of the colour phenotype with the highest albedo (yellow) was shown to have persisted and a difference in colour frequency between woodland and more open habitats was confirmed, but there was no general increase in the frequency of yellow shells. This may have been because snails adapted to a warming climate through behavioural thermoregulation. By contrast, we detected an unexpected decrease in the frequency of Unbanded shells and an increase in the Mid-banded morph. Neither of these evolutionary changes appears to be a direct response to climate change, indicating that the influence of other selective agents, possibly related to changing predation pressure and habitat change with effects on micro-climate.

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Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

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Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

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BACKGROUND: Untreated hypovolemia results in impaired outcome. This study tests our hypothesis whether general hemodynamic parameters detect acute blood loss earlier than monitoring parameters of regional tissue beds. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight pigs (23-25 kg) were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. A pulmonary artery catheter and an arterial catheter were inserted. Tissue oxygen tension was measured with Clark-type electrodes in the jejunal and colonic wall, in the liver, and subcutaneously. Jejunal microcirculation was assessed by laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF). Intravascular volume was optimized using difference in pulse pressure (dPP) to keep dPP below 13%. Sixty minutes after preparation, baseline measurements were taken. At first, 5% of total blood volume was withdrawn, followed by another 5% increment, and then in 10% increments until death. RESULTS: After withdrawal of 5% of estimated blood volume, dPP increased from 6.1% +/- 3.0% to 20.8% +/- 2.7% (P < 0.01). Mean arterial pressure (MAP), mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP) decreased with a blood loss of 10% (P < 0.01). Cardiac output (CO) changed after a blood loss of 20% (P < 0.05). Tissue oxygen tension in central organs, and blood flow in the jejunal muscularis decreased (P < 0.05) after a blood loss of 20%. Tissue oxygen tension in the skin, and jejunal mucosa blood flow decreased (P < 0.05) after a blood loss of 40% and 50%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this hemorrhagic pig model systemic hemodynamic parameters were more sensitive to detect acute hypovolemia than tissue oxygen tension measurements or jejunal LDF measurements. Acute blood loss was detected first by dPP.

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Modeling of tumor growth has been performed according to various approaches addressing different biocomplexity levels and spatiotemporal scales. Mathematical treatments range from partial differential equation based diffusion models to rule-based cellular level simulators, aiming at both improving our quantitative understanding of the underlying biological processes and, in the mid- and long term, constructing reliable multi-scale predictive platforms to support patient-individualized treatment planning and optimization. The aim of this paper is to establish a multi-scale and multi-physics approach to tumor modeling taking into account both the cellular and the macroscopic mechanical level. Therefore, an already developed biomodel of clinical tumor growth and response to treatment is self-consistently coupled with a biomechanical model. Results are presented for the free growth case of the imageable component of an initially point-like glioblastoma multiforme tumor. The composite model leads to significant tumor shape corrections that are achieved through the utilization of environmental pressure information and the application of biomechanical principles. Using the ratio of smallest to largest moment of inertia of the tumor material to quantify the effect of our coupled approach, we have found a tumor shape correction of 20\% by coupling biomechanics to the cellular simulator as compared to a cellular simulation without preferred growth directions. We conclude that the integration of the two models provides additional morphological insight into realistic tumor growth behavior. Therefore, it might be used for the development of an advanced oncosimulator focusing on tumor types for which morphology plays an important role in surgical and/or radio-therapeutic treatment planning.

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The theory of ecological speciation suggests that assortative mating evolves most easily when mating preferences are;directly linked to ecological traits that are subject to divergent selection. Sensory adaptation can play a major role in this process,;because selective mating is often mediated by sexual signals: bright colours, complex song, pheromone blends and so on. When;divergent sensory adaptation affects the perception of such signals, mating patterns may change as an immediate consequence.;Alternatively, mating preferences can diverge as a result of indirect effects: assortative mating may be promoted by selection;against intermediate phenotypes that are maladapted to their (sensory) environment. For Lake Victoria cichlids, the visual environment;constitutes an important selective force that is heterogeneous across geographical and water depth gradients. We investigate;the direct and indirect effects of this heterogeneity on the evolution of female preferences for alternative male nuptial colours;(red and blue) in the genus Pundamilia. Here, we review the current evidence for divergent sensory drive in this system, extract;general principles, and discuss future perspectives