Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

The Southern Hemisphere at glacial terminations: insights from the Dome C ice core

The many different proxy records from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C ice core allow for the first time a comparison of nine glacial terminations in great detail. Despite the fact that all terminations cover the transition from a glacial maximum into an interglacial, there are large differences between single terminations. For some terminations, Antarctic temperature increased only moderately, while for others, the amplitude of change at the termination was much larger. For the different terminations, the rate of change in temperature is more similar than the magnitude or duration of change. These temperature changes were accompanied by vast changes in dust and sea salt deposition all over Antarctica. Here we investigate the phasing between a South American dust proxy (non-sea-salt calcium flux, nssCa2+), a sea ice proxy (sea salt sodium flux, ssNa+) and a proxy for Antarctic temperature (deuterium, δD). In particular, we look into whether a similar sequence of events applies to all terminations, despite their different characteristics. All proxies are derived from the EPICA Dome C ice core, resulting in a relative dating uncertainty between the proxies of less than 20 years. At the start of the terminations, the temperature (δD) increase and dust (nssCa2+ flux) decrease start synchronously. The sea ice proxy (ssNa+ flux), however, only changes once the temperature has reached a particular threshold, approximately 5°C below present day temperatures (corresponding to a δD value of −420‰). This reflects to a large extent the limited sensitivity of the sea ice proxy during very cold periods with large sea ice extent. At terminations where this threshold is not reached (TVI, TVIII), ssNa+ flux shows no changes. Above this threshold, the sea ice proxy is closely coupled to the Antarctic temperature, and interglacial levels are reached at the same time for both ssNa+ and δD. On the other hand, once another threshold at approximately 2°C below present day temperature is passed (corresponding to a δD value of −402‰), nssCa2+ flux has reached interglacial levels and does not change any more, despite further warming. This threshold behaviour most likely results from a combination of changes to the threshold friction velocity for dust entrainment and to the distribution of surface wind speeds in the dust source region.

Unusual Southern Hemisphere tree growth patterns induced by changes in the Southern Annular Mode

Recent changes in the summer climate of the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics are primarily related to the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode1, 2. This shift in the behaviour of the Southern Annular Mode—essentially a measure of the pressure gradient between Southern Hemisphere mid and high latitudes—has been predominantly induced by polar stratospheric ozone depletion2, 3, 4. The concomitant southward expansion of the dry subtropical belts5, 6 could have consequences for forest growth. Here, we use tree-ring records from over 3,000 trees in South America, Tasmania and New Zealand to identify dominant patterns of tree growth in recent centuries. We show that the foremost patterns of growth between 1950 and 2000 differed significantly from those in the previous 250 years. Specifically, growth was higher than the long-term average in the subalpine forests of Tasmania and New Zealand, but lower in the dry-mesic forests of Patagonia. We further demonstrate that variations in the Southern Annular Mode can explain 12–48% of the tree growth anomalies in the latter half of the twentieth century. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of summer Southern Annular Mode indices suggest that the high frequency of the positive phase since the 1950s is unprecedented in the past 600 years. We propose that changes in the Southern Annular Mode have significantly altered tree growth patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

Southern Hemisphere high-resolution palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of high-resolution Southern Hemisphere (SH) paleoarchives covering the last 2000 years. We identified 174 monthly to annually resolved climate proxy (tree ring, coral, ice core, documentary, speleothem and sedimentary) records from the Hemisphere. We assess the interannual and decadal sensitivity of each proxy record to large-scale circulation indices from the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions over the twentieth century. We then analyse the potential of this newly expanded palaeoclimate network to collectively represent predictands (sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation) commonly used in climate reconstructions. The key dynamical centres-of-action of the equatorial Indo-Pacific are well captured by the palaeoclimate network, indicating that there is considerable reconstruction potential in this region, particularly in the post AD 1600 period when a number of long coral records are available. Current spatiotemporal gaps in data coverage and regions where significant potential for future proxy collection exists are discussed. We then highlight the need for new and extended records from key dynamical regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Although large-scale climate field reconstructions for the SH are in their infancy, we report that excellent progress in the development of regional proxies now makes plausible estimates of continental- to hemispheric-scale climate variations possible.

A 950 yr temperature reconstruction from Duckhole Lake, southern Tasmania, Australia

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

The chironomid-temperature relationship: expression in nature and palaeoenvironmental implications

Fossils of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established palaeotemperature indicators which, with the aid of numerical chironomid-based inference models (transfer functions), can provide quantitative estimates of past temperature change. This approach to temperature reconstruction relies on the strong relationship between air and lake surface water temperature and the distribution of individual chironomid taxa (species, species groups, genera) that has been observed in different climate regions (arctic, subarctic, temperate and tropical) in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere. A major complicating factor for the use of chironomids for palaeoclimate reconstruction which increases the uncertainty associated with chironomid-based temperature estimates is that the exact nature of the mechanism responsible for the strong relationship between temperature and chironomid assemblages in lakes remains uncertain. While a number of authors have provided state of the art overviews of fossil chironomid palaeoecology and the use of chironomids for temperature reconstruction, few have focused on examining the ecological basis for this approach. Here, we review the nature of the relationship between chironomids and temperature based on the available ecological evidence. After discussing many of the surveys describing the distribution of chironomid taxa in lake surface sediments in relation to temperature, we also examine evidence from laboratory and field studies exploring the effects of temperature on chironomid physiology, life cycles and behaviour. We show that, even though a direct influence of water temperature on chironomid development, growth and survival is well described, chironomid palaeoclimatology is presently faced with the paradoxical situation that the relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature seems strongest in relatively deep, thermally stratified lakes in temperate and subarctic regions in which the benthic chironomid fauna lives largely decoupled from the direct influence of air and surface water temperature. This finding suggests that indirect effects of temperature on physical and chemical characteristics of lakes play an important role in determining the distribution of lake-living chironomid larvae. However, we also demonstrate that no single indirect mechanism has been identified that can explain the strong relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature in all regions and datasets presently available. This observation contrasts with the previously published hypothesis that climatic effects on lake nutrient status and productivity may be largely responsible for the apparent correlation between chironomid assemblage distribution and temperature. We conclude our review by summarizing the implications of our findings for chironomid-based palaeoclimatology and by pointing towards further avenues of research necessary to improve our mechanistic understanding of the chironomid-temperature relationship.

Centennial mineral dust variability in high-resolution ice core data from Dome C, Antarctica

Ice core data from Antarctica provide detailed insights into the characteristics of past climate, atmospheric circulation, as well as changes in the aerosol load of the atmosphere. We present high-resolution records of soluble calcium (Ca2+), non-sea-salt soluble calcium (nssCa2+), and particulate mineral dust aerosol from the East Antarctic Plateau at a depth resolution of 1 cm, spanning the past 800 000 years. Despite the fact that all three parameters are largely dust-derived, the ratio of nssCa2+ to particulate dust is dependent on the particulate dust concentration itself. We used principal component analysis to extract the joint climatic signal and produce a common high-resolution record of dust flux. This new record is used to identify Antarctic warming events during the past eight glacial periods. The phasing of dust flux and CO2 changes during glacial-interglacial transitions reveals that iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during the past nine glacial terminations was not the dominant factor in the deglacial rise of CO2 concentrations. Rapid changes in dust flux during glacial terminations and Antarctic warming events point to a rapid response of the southern westerly wind belt in the region of southern South American dust sources on changing climate conditions. The clear lead of these dust changes on temperature rise suggests that an atmospheric reorganization occurred in the Southern Hemisphere before the Southern Ocean warmed significantly.

Change in dust variability in the Atlantic sector of Antarctica at the end of the last deglaciation

We present a Rare Earth Elements (REE) record determined on the EPICA ice core drilled at Dronning Maud Land (EDML) in the Atlantic sector of the East Antarctic Plateau. The record covers the transition from the last glacial stage (LGS) to the early Holocene (26 600–7500 yr BP) at decadal to centennial resolution. Additionally, samples from potential source areas (PSAs) for Antarctic dust were analyzed for their REE characteristics. The dust provenance is discussed by comparing the REE fingerprints in the ice core and the PSA samples. We find a shift in variability in REE composition at ~15 000 yr BP in the ice core samples. Before 15 000 yr BP, the dust composition is very uniform and its provenance was most certainly dominated by a South American source. After 15 000 yr BP, multiple sources such as Australia and New Zealand become relatively more important, although South America remains the major dust source. A similar change in the dust characteristics was observed in the EPICA Dome C ice core at around ~15 000 yr BP, accompanied by a shift in the REE composition, thus suggesting a change of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere.

Diatoms community structure in superficial sediments of eight Andean lakes of central Chile

In this research the taxonomic structure of diatoms in sediments of high mountain lakes was studied. These lakes are located in Chile between 32°49' and 38°48' S in the Andean Cordillera. A total of 99 diatom taxa distributed in 48 genera were identified and all this taxa are cosmopolitan excepting a Eunotia andinofrequens, Gomphonema punae, Pinnularia araucanensis and Pinnularia acidicola, which are know only for the Southern Hemisphere. The assemblages of diatoms were different in the studied lakes. So the high mountain lakes Ocho, Huifa, Ensueño and Negra, dominated benthic diatoms which are typical of oligotrophic and acid waters as Achnanthidium exiguum, Achnanthidium minutissimum, Encyonema minutum, Pinnularia acidicola and Planothidium lanceolatum. In the assemblages from lakes Galletué, Icalma and Laja planktonic diatoms were more abundant, which are common in alkaline and mesotrophic waters, e.g., Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira distans, Aulacoseira granulata, Cyclotella stelligera and Rhopalodia gibba.