A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Solar wind dynamic pressure effect on planetary wave propagation and synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking

We provide statistical evidence of the effect of the solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) on the northern winter and spring circulations. We find that the vertical structure of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the zonal mean circulation, and Eliassen-Palm (EP)-flux anomalies show a dynamically consistent pattern of downward propagation over a period of ~45 days in response to positive Psw anomalies. When the solar irradiance is high, the signature of Psw is marked by a positive NAM anomaly descending from the stratosphere to the surface during winter. When the solar irradiance is low, the Psw signal has the opposite sign, occurs in spring, and is confined to the stratosphere. The negative Psw signal in the NAM under low solar irradiance conditions is primarily governed by enhanced vertical EP-flux divergence and a warmer polar region. The winter Psw signal under high solar irradiance conditions is associated with positive anomalies of the horizontal EP-flux divergence at 55°N–75°N and negative anomalies at 25°N–45°N, which corresponds to the positive NAM anomaly. The EP-flux divergence anomalies occur ~15 days ahead of the mean-flow changes. A significant equatorward shift of synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking (RWB) near the tropopause is detected during January–March, corresponding to increased anticyclonic RWB and a decrease in cyclonic RWB. We suggest that the barotropic instability associated with asymmetric ozone in the upper stratosphere and the baroclinic instability associated with the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere play a critical role for the winter signal and its downward propagation.

Reflection of solar wind hydrogen from the lunar surface

The solar wind continuously flows out from the Sun and directly interacts with the surfaces of dust and airless planetary bodies throughout the solar system. A significant fraction of solar wind ions reflect from an object's surface as energetic neutral atoms (ENAs). ENA emission from the Moon was first observed during commissioning of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission on 3 December 2008. We present the analysis of 10 additional IBEX observations of the Moon while it was illuminated by the solar wind. For the viewing geometry and energy range (> 250 eV) of the IBEX-Hi ENA imager, we find that the spectral shape of the ENA emission from the Moon is well-represented by a linearly decreasing flux with increasing energy. The fraction of the incident solar wind ions reflected as ENAs, which is the ENA albedo and defined quantitatively as the ENA reflection coefficient RN, depends on the incident solar wind speed, ranging from ~0.2 for slow solar wind to ~0.08 for fast solar wind. The average energy per incident solar wind ion that is reflected to space is 30 eV for slow solar wind and 45 eV for fast solar wind. Once ionized, these ENAs can become pickup ions in the solar wind with a unique spectral signature that reaches 3vSW. These results apply beyond the solar system; the reflection process heats plasmas that have significant bulk flow relative to interstellar dust and cools plasmas having no net bulk flow relative to the dust.

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.

Efficient luminescent solar concentrators based on self-absorption free, Tm2+ doped halides

The optical and luminescence properties of CaI2 and NaCl doped with divalent thulium are reported for solar energy applications. These halides strongly absorb solar light from the UV up to 900 nm due to the intense Tm2+ 4f13→4f125d1 electronic transitions. Absorption is followed by emission of 1140 nm light due to the 2F5/2→2F7/2 transition of the 4f13 configuration that can be efficiently converted to electric power by thin film CuInSe2 (CIS) solar cells. Because of a negligible spectral overlap between absorption and emission spectra, a luminescent solar concentrator (LSC) based on these black luminescent materials would not suffer from self-absorption losses. The Tm2+ doped halides may therefore lead to efficient semi-transparent power generating windows that absorb solar light over the whole visible spectrum. It will be shown that the power efficiency of the Tm2+ based LSCs can be up to four times higher compared to LSCs based on organic dyes or quantum dots.

Variability of mesospheric water vapor above Bern in relation to the 27-day solar rotation cycle

Many studies investigated solar–terrestrial responses (thermal state, O₃ , OH, H₂O) with emphasis on the tropical upper atmosphere. In this paper the Focus is switched to water vapor in the mesosphere at a mid-latitudinal location. Eight years of water vapor profile measurements above Bern (46.88°N/7.46°E) are investigated to study oscillations with the Focus on periods between 10 and 50 days. Different spectral analyses revealed prominent features in the 27-day oscillation band, which are enhanced in the upper mesosphere (above 0.1 hPa, ∼64 km) during the rising sun spot activity of solar cycle 24. Local as well as zonal mean Aura MLS observations Support these results by showing a similar behavior. The relationship between mesospheric water and the solar Lyman-α flux is studied by comparing thesi-milarity of their temporal oscillations. The H₂O oscillation is negatively correlated to solar Lyman-α oscillation with a correlation coefficient of up to −0.3 to −0.4, and the Phase lag is 6–10 days at 0.04 hPa. The confidence level of the correlation is ≥99%. This finding supports the assumption that the 27-day oscillation in Lyman-α causes a periodical photo dissociation loss in mesospheric water. Wavelet power spectra, cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis (WTC)complete our study. More periods of high common wavelet power of H₂O and solar Lyman-α are present when amplitudes of the Lyman-α flux increase. Since this is not a measure of physical correlation a more detailed view on WTC is necessary, where significant (two sigma level)correlations occur intermittently in the 27 and 13-day band with variable Phase lock behavior. Large Lyman-α oscillations appeared after the solar super storm in July 2012 and the H₂O oscillations show a well pronounced anticorrelation. The competition between advective transport and photo dissociation loss of mesospheric water vapor may explain the sometimes variable Phase relationship of mesospheric H₂O and solar Lyman-α oscillations. Generally, the WTC analysis indicates that solar variability causes observable photochemical and dynamical processes in the mid-latitude mesosphere.