The Arduous Process of Climate Change Negotiations: How Science Can Facilitate the Desired Outcome

Effective interaction between climate science and policy is important for moving climate negotiations forward to reach an ambitious global climate change deal. Lack of progress in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations during recent years is a good reason for taking a closer look at the process of climate science–policy interaction to identify and eliminate existing shortcomings hindering climate policymaking. This paper examines the current state of climate science–policy interaction and suggests ways to integrate scientific input into the UNFCCC process more effectively. Suggestions relate to improvement in institutional structures, processes and procedures of the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), quality of scientific input, credibility of scientific message and public awareness of climate change.

The microtubule plus-end localization of Aspergillus dynein is important for dynein-early-endosome interaction but not for dynein ATPase activation

Cytoplasmic dynein in filamentous fungi accumulates at microtubule plus-ends near the hyphal tip, which is important for minus-end-directed transport of early endosomes. It was hypothesized that dynein is switched on at the plus-end by cargo association. Here, we show in Aspergillus nidulans that kinesin-1-dependent plus-end localization is not a prerequisite for dynein ATPase activation. First, the Walker A and Walker B mutations in the dynein heavy chain AAA1 domain implicated in blocking different steps of the ATPase cycle cause different effects on dynein localization to microtubules, arguing against the suggestion that ATPase is inactive before arriving at the plus-end. Second, dynein from kinA (kinesin 1) mutant cells has normal ATPase activity despite the absence of dynein plus-end accumulation. In kinA hyphae, dynein localizes along microtubules and does not colocalize with abnormally accumulated early endosomes at the hyphal tip. This is in contrast to the colocalization of dynein and early endosomes in the absence of NUDF/LIS1. However, the Walker B mutation allows dynein to colocalize with the hyphal-tip-accumulated early endosomes in the kinA background. We suggest that the normal ability of dyenin to interact with microtubules as an active minus-end-directed motor demands kinesin-1-mediated plus-end accumulation for effective interactions with early endosomes.

Iodide interaction with natural pyrite

29I is one of the major dose-determining nuclides in the safety analysis of deep storage of radioactive waste. Iodine forms anionic species that hardly sorb on the surfaces of common host-rock minerals. Recently, interest has arisen on the role of pyrite, an accessory mineral capable of binding anionic selenium. Whereas the interaction of selenium with pyrite is well documented, corresponding results on iodine sorption are still scarce and controversial. Pyrite is present in argicilleous rocks which are being considered in many countries as potential host rocks for a radioactive waste repository. The uptake of iodide (I−) on natural pyrite was investigated under nearly anoxic conditions (O2 < 5 ppm) over a wide concentration range (10−11–10−3 M total I−) using 125I as the radioactive tracer. Weak but measurable sorption was observed; distribution coefficients (R d) were less than 0.002 m3 kg−1 and decreased with increasing total iodide concentration. Iodide sorption was connected to the presence of oxidized clusters on the pyrite surface, which were presumably formed by reaction with limited amounts of dissolved oxygen. The results obtained indicated that pyrite cannot be considered as an effective scavenger of 129I under the geochemical conditions prevailing in underground radioactive waste geologic storage.

Mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke: thrombus-device interaction, efficiency, and complications in vivo

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Mechanical thrombectomy is a promising new modality of interventional stroke treatment. The various devices differ with regard to where they apply force on the thrombus, taking a proximal approach such as aspiration devices or a distal approach such as basket-like devices. The study compares the in vivo effectiveness and thrombus-device interaction of these 2 approaches. METHODS: Angiography and embolization with a radioopaque whole blood thrombus was performed in 10 swine. Mechanical thrombectomy was performed in 20 cranial vessels using a proximal aspiration device (Vasco35) and a distal basket-like device (Catch) with and without proximal balloon occlusion. Fifty-six retrieval attempts were made. RESULTS: The proximal device allowed fast repeated application with a low risk of thromboembolic events (3%) and vasospasm, but it had a significantly lower success rate (39.4%) in retrieving thrombotic material than the distal device (DD) (82.6%; odds ratio, 7.3; 95% CI, 2.0 to 26.4). The compaction of the thrombus during retrieval with DD increased the risk of vessel wall irritation significantly (P<0.01) and complicated retrieval into the guiding catheter. The number of embolic events was significantly higher with DD (26%; odds ratio, 11.3; 95% CI, 1.35 to 101.6) unless proximal balloon occlusion was used. CONCLUSIONS: The proximal and the distal approaches to mechanical thrombectomy proved to be effective at achieving recanalization of cranial vessels. The proximal device is faster in application and allowed repeated attempts with a low complication rate. The DD is more successful at removing thrombotic material, but its method of application and attendant thrombus compaction increase the risk of thromboembolic events and vasospasms.

Experimental Characterization and Quantification of Cement-Bentonite Interaction using Core Infiltration Techniques Coupled with X-ray Tomography

Deep geological storage of radioactive waste foresees cementitious materials as reinforcement of tunnels and as backfill. Bentonite is proposed to enclose spent fuel canisters and as drift seals. Sand/bentonite (s/b) is foreseen as backfill material of access galleries or as drift seals. The emplacement of cementitious material next to clay material generates an enormous chemical gradient in pore-water composition that drives diffusive solute transport. Laboratory studies and reactive transport modeling predicted significant mineral alteration at and near interfaces, mainly resulting in a decrease of porosity in bentonite. The goal of this thesis was to characterize and quantify the cement/bentonite interactions both spatially and temporally in laboratory experiments. A newly developed mobile X-ray transparent core infiltration device was used to perform X-ray computed tomography (CT) scans without interruption of running experiments. CT scans allowed tracking the evolution of the reaction plume and changes in core volume/diameter/density during the experiments. In total 4 core infiltration experiments were carried out for this study with the compacted and saturated cores consisting of MX-80 bentonite and sand/MX-80 bentonite mixture (s/b; 65/35%). Two different high-pH cementitious pore-fluids were infiltrated: a young (early) ordinary Portland cement pore-fluid (APWOPC; K+–Na+–OH-; pH 13.4; ionic strength 0.28 mol/kg) and a young ‘low-pH’ ESDRED shotcrete pore-fluid (APWESDRED; Ca2+–Na+–K+–formate; pH 11.4; ionic strength 0.11 mol/kg). The experiments lasted between 1 and 2 years. In both bentonite experiments, the hydraulic conductivity was strongly reduced after switching to high-pH fluids, changing eventually from an advective to a diffusion-dominated transport regime. The reduction was mainly induced by mineral precipitation and possibly partly also by high ionic strength pore-fluids. Both bentonite cores showed a volume reduction and a resulting transient flow in which pore-water was squeezed out during high-pH infiltration. The outflow chemistry was characterized by a high ionic strength, while chloride in the initial pore water got replaced as main anionic charge carrier by sulfate, originating from gypsum dissolution. The chemistry of the high-pH fluids got strongly buffered by the bentonite, consuming hydroxide and in case of APWESDRED also formate. Hydroxide got consumed by mineral reactions (saponite and possibly talc and brucite precipitation), while formate being affected by bacterial degradation. Post-mortem analysis showed reaction zones near the inlet of the bentonite core, characterized by calcium and magnesium enrichment, consisting predominately of calcite and saponite, respectively. Silica got enriched in the outflow, indicating dissolution of silicate-minerals, identified as preferentially cristobalite. In s/b, infiltration of APWOPC reduced the hydraulic conductivity strongly, while APWESDRED infiltration had no effect. The reduction was mainly induced by mineral precipitation and probably partly also by high ionic strength pore-fluids. Not clear is why the observed mineral precipitates in the APWESDRED experiment had no effect on the fluid flow. Both s/b cores showed a volume expansion along with decreasing ionic strengths of the outflow, due to mineral reactions or in case of APWESDRED infiltration also mediated by microbiological activity, consuming hydroxide and formate, respectively. The chemistry of the high-pH fluids got strongly buffered by the s/b. In the case of APWESDRED infiltration, formate reached the outflow only for a short time, followed by enrichment in acetate, indicating most likely biological activity. This was in agreement to post-mortem analysis of the core, observing black spots on the inflow surface, while the sample had a rotten-egg smell indicative of some sulfate reduction. Post-mortem analysis showed further in both cores a Ca-enrichment in the first 10 mm of the core due to calcite precipitation. Mg-enrichment was only observed in the APWOPC experiment, originating from newly formed saponite. Silica got enriched in the outflow of both experiments, indicating dissolution of silicate-minerals, identified in the OPC experiment as cristobalite. The experiments attested an effective buffering capacity for bentonite and s/b, a progressing coupled hydraulic-chemical sealing process and also the preservation of the physical integrity of the interface region in this setup with a total pressure boundary condition on the core sample. No complete pore-clogging was observed but the hydraulic conductivity got rather strongly reduced in 3 experiments, explained by clogging of the intergranular porosity (macroporosity). Such a drop in hydraulic conductivity may impact the saturation time of the buffer in a nuclear waste repository, although the processes and geometry will be more complex in repository situation.

Microscopic theory of cooperative spin crossover: Interaction of molecular modes with phonons

In this article, we present a new microscopic theoretical approach to the description of spin crossover in molecular crystals. The spin crossover crystals under consideration are composed of molecular fragments formed by the spin-crossover metal ion and its nearest ligand surrounding and exhibiting well defined localized (molecular) vibrations. As distinguished from the previous models of this phenomenon, the developed approach takes into account the interaction of spin-crossover ions not only with the phonons but also a strong coupling of the electronic shells with molecular modes. This leads to an effective coupling of the local modes with phonons which is shown to be responsible for the cooperative spin transition accompanied by the structural reorganization. The transition is characterized by the two order parameters representing the mean values of the products of electronic diagonal matrices and the coordinates of the local modes for the high- and low-spin states of the spin crossover complex. Finally, we demonstrate that the approach provides a reasonable explanation of the observed spin transition in the [Fe(ptz)6](BF4)2 crystal. The theory well reproduces the observed abrupt low-spin → high-spin transition and the temperature dependence of the high-spin fraction in a wide temperature range as well as the pronounced hysteresis loop. At the same time within the limiting approximations adopted in the developed model, the evaluated high-spin fraction vs. T shows that the cooperative spin-lattice transition proves to be incomplete in the sense that the high-spin fraction does not reach its maximum value at high temperature.

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

Serum amyloid A: high-density lipoproteins interaction and cardiovascular risk.

AIMS High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are considered as anti-atherogenic. Recent experimental findings suggest that their biological properties can be modified in certain clinical conditions by accumulation of serum amyloid A (SAA). The effect of SAA on the association between HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and cardiovascular outcome remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS We examined the association of SAA and HDL-C with mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study, which included 3310 patients undergoing coronary angiography. To validate our findings, we analysed 1255 participants of the German Diabetes and Dialysis study (4D) and 4027 participants of the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 study. In LURIC, SAA concentrations predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In patients with low SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In contrast, in patients with high SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, indicating that SAA indeed modifies the beneficial properties of HDL. We complemented these clinical observations by in vitro experiments, in which SAA impaired vascular functions of HDL. We further derived a formula for the simple calculation of the amount of biologically 'effective' HDL-C based on measured HDL-C and SAA from the LURIC study. In 4D and KORA S4 studies, we found that measured HDL-C was not associated with clinical outcomes, whereas calculated 'effective' HDL-C significantly predicted better outcome. CONCLUSION The acute-phase protein SAA modifies the biological effects of HDL-C in several clinical conditions. The concomitant measurement of SAA is a simple, useful, and clinically applicable surrogate for the vascular functionality of HDL.