Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Relationship between depressive symptoms and acute low back pain at first medical consultation, three and six weeks of primary care

Background: Aim of the study was to test lagged reciprocal effects of depressive symptoms and acute low back pain (LBP) across the first weeks of primary care. Methods: In a prospective inception cohort study, 221 primary care patients with acute or subacute LBP were assessed at the time of initial consultation and then followed up at three and six weeks. Key measures were depressive symptoms (modified Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale) and LBP (sensory pain, present pain index and visual analogue scale of the Short-Form McGill Pain Questionnaire). Results: When only cross-lagged effects of six weeks were tested, a reciprocal positive relationship between LBP and depressive symptoms was shown in a cross-lagged structural equation model (β = .15 and .17, p < .01). When lagged reciprocal paths at three- and six-week follow-up were tested, depressive symptoms at the time of consultation predicted higher LBP severity after three weeks (β = .23, p < .01). LBP after three weeks had in turn a positive cross-lagged effect on depression after six weeks (β = .27, p < .001). Conclusions: Reciprocal effects of depressive symptoms and LBP seem to depend on time under medical treatment. Health practitioners should screen for and treat depressive symptoms at the first consultation to improve the LBP treatment.

Effects of a latency period between pre-stimulation and teat cup attachment and periodic vacuum reduction on milking characteristics and teat condition in dairy cows

The goal of the present study was to examine the suitability of a short pre-stimulation (P) for 15 s followed by a latency period (L) of 30 s before cluster attachment for machine milking. In addition we tested the effect of a periodic reduction of the vacuum under the teat (VR) during the massage phase from 43 kPa to 12-15 kPa on milking characteristics and teat tissue condition. The study was carried out in 9 cows in a cross-over design. Animals were milked twice daily, and each of the 4 treatment combinations was used for six subsequent milkings (P+L vs. continuous P, and standard pulsation vs. VR, respectively). Milk flow was recorded during all experimental milkings. Longitudinal ultrasound cross sections of the teat were performed by B-mode ultrasound after the last milking of each treatment at 0, 5, and 15 min after the end of milking, respectively. None of the evaluated milking characteristics (total milk yield, main milking time, peak flow rate, average milk flow) differed between treatments. Teat measures as obtained by ultrasound cross sections showed no significant difference if individual treatments were compared at the three time points individually. However, teat wall thickness (TWT) tended to be smaller in VR vs. non-VR treatments at 5 min after milking (P=0·05). In conclusion, teat preparation consisting of a short stimulation followed by a latency period represents a similarly efficient pre-stimulation as a continuous pre-stimulation. VR seems to reduce the load on the teat tissue during milking and thus reduces the development of oedema and hence a less pronounced increase of TWT while milking characteristics are similar with or without VR.

Effect of selective dorsal rhizotomy on gait in children with bilateral spastic paresis: kinematic and EMG-pattern changes

Selective dorsal rhizotomy (SDR) is an effective treatment for reducing spasticity and improving gait in children with spastic cerebral palsy. Data concerning muscle activity changes after SDR treatment are limited.

Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

Natural methane (CH4) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N), naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a~significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long-term decline of the atmospheric CH4 growth rate from 1990 to 2006 cannot be fully explained with the simulated ecosystem emissions. However, these emissions show an increasing trend of +3.62 Tg CH4 yr−1 over 2005–2008 which can partly explain the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration during recent years.

Incidence of low central venous oxygen saturation during unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit: an observational study

INTRODUCTION: It has been shown that early central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2)-guided optimization of hemodynamics can improve outcome in septic patients. The early ScvO2 profile of other patient groups is unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit (ICU) with respect to ScvO2 and outcome. METHODS: Ninety-eight consecutive unplanned admissions to a multidisciplinary ICU (median age 63 [range 19 to 83] years, median Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS II] 43 [range 11 to 92]) with a clinical indication for a central venous catheter were included in the study. ScvO2 was assessed at ICU arrival and six hours later but was not used to guide treatment. Length of stay in ICU (LOSICU) and in hospital (LOShospital) and 28-day mortality were recorded. RESULTS: ScvO2 was 70% +/- 12% (mean +/- standard deviation) at admission and 71% +/- 10% six hours later (p = 0.484). Overall 28-day mortality was 18%, LOSICU was 3 (1 to 28) days, and LOShospital was 19 (1 to 28) days. Patients with an ScvO2 of less than 60% at admission had higher mortality than patients with an ScvO2 of more than 60% (29% versus 17%, p < 0.05). Changes in ScvO2 during the first six hours were not predictive of LOSICU, LOShospital, or mortality. CONCLUSION: Low ScvO2 in unplanned admissions and high SAPS II are associated with increased mortality. Standard ICU treatment increased ScvO2 in patients with a low admission ScvO2, but the increase was not associated with LOSICU or LOShospital.

Augmentation of mechanical properties in osteoporotic vertebral bones--a biomechanical investigation of vertebroplasty efficacy with different bone cements

Recent clinical trials have reported favorable early results for transpedicular vertebral cement reinforcement of osteoporotic vertebral insufficiencies. There is, however, a lack of basic data on the application, safety and biomechanical efficacy of materials such as polymethyl-methacrylate (PMMA) and calciumphospate (CaP) cements. The present study analyzed 33 vertebral pairs from five human cadaver spines. Thirty-nine vertebrae were osteoporotic (bone mineral density < 0.75 g/cm2), 27 showed nearly normal values. The cranial vertebra of each pair was augmented with either PMMA (Palacos E-Flow) or experimental brushite cement (EBC), with the caudal vertebra as a control. PMMA and EBC were easy to inject, and vertebral fillings of 20-50% were achieved. The maximal possible filling was inversely correlated to the bone mineral density (BMD) values. Cement extrusion into the spinal canal was observed in 12% of cases. All specimens were subjected to axial compression tests in a displacement-controlled mode. From load-displacement curves, the stiffness, S, and the maximal force before failure, Fmax, were determined. Compared with the native control vertebrae, a statistically significant increase in vertebral stiffness and Fmax was observed by the augmentation. With PMMA the stiffness increased by 174% (P = 0.018) and Fmax by 195% (P = 0.001); the corresponding augmentation with EBC was 120% (P = 0.03) and 113% (P = 0.002). The lower the initial BMD, the more pronounced was the augmentation effect. Both PMMA and EBC augmentation reliably and significantly raised the stiffness and maximal tolerable force until failure in osteoporotic vertebral bodies. In non-porotic specimens, no significant increase was achieved.

Symptom experience during acute coronary syndrome and the development of posttraumatic stress symptoms

There is growing evidence for the development of posttraumatic stress symptoms as a consequence of acute cardiac events. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients experience a range of acute cardiac symptoms, and these may cluster together in specific patterns. The objectives of this study were to establish distinct symptom clusters in ACS patients, and to investigate whether the experience of different types of symptom clusters are associated with posttraumatic symptom intensity at six months. ACS patients were interviewed in hospital within 48 h of admission, 294 patients provided information on symptoms before hospitalisation, and cluster analysis was used to identify patterns. Posttraumatic stress symptoms were assessed in 156 patients at six months. Three symptom clusters were identified; pain symptoms, diffuse symptoms and symptoms of dyspnea. In multiple regression analyses, adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical and psychological factors, the pain symptoms cluster (β = .153, P = .044) emerged as a significant predictor of posttraumatic symptom severity at six months. A marginally significant association was observed between symptoms of dyspnea and reduced intrusive symptoms at six months (β = -.156, P = .061). Findings suggest acute ACS symptoms occur in distinct clusters, which may have distinctive effects on intensity of subsequent posttraumatic symptoms. Since posttraumatic stress is associated with adverse outcomes, identifying patients at risk based on their symptom experience during ACS may be useful in targeting interventions.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Unstable argininosuccinate lyase in variant forms of the urea cycle disorder argininosuccinic aciduria.

Loss of function of the urea cycle enzyme argininosuccinate lyase (ASL) is caused by mutations in the ASL gene leading to ASL deficiency (ASLD). ASLD has a broad clinical spectrum ranging from life-threatening severe neonatal to asymptomatic forms. Different levels of residual ASL activity probably contribute to the phenotypic variability but reliable expression systems allowing clinically useful conclusions are not yet available. In order to define the molecular characteristics underlying the phenotypic variability, we investigated all ASL mutations that were hitherto identified in patients with late onset or mild clinical and biochemical courses by ASL expression in human embryonic kidney 293 T cells. We found residual activities >3 % of ASL wild type (WT) in nine of 11 ASL mutations. Six ASL mutations (p.Arg95Cys, p.Ile100Thr, p.Val178Met, p.Glu189Gly, p.Val335Leu, and p.Arg379Cys) with residual activities ≥16 % of ASL WT showed no significant or less than twofold reduced Km values, but displayed thermal instability. Computational structural analysis supported the biochemical findings by revealing multiple effects including protein instability, disruption of ionic interactions and hydrogen bonds between residues in the monomeric form of the protein, and disruption of contacts between adjacent monomeric units in the ASL tetramer. These findings suggest that the clinical and biochemical course in variant forms of ASLD is associated with relevant residual levels of ASL activity as well as instability of mutant ASL proteins. Since about 30 % of known ASLD genotypes are affected by mutations studied here, ASLD should be considered as a candidate for chaperone treatment to improve mutant protein stability.

The Nile perch invasion in Lake Victoria: cause or consequence of the haplochromine decline?

We review alternative hypotheses and associated mechanisms to explain Lake Victoria’s Nile perch takeover and concurrent reduction in haplochromines through a (re)analysis of long term climate, limnological and stock observations in comparison with size-spectrum model predictions of co-existence, extinction and demographic change. The empirical observations are in agreement with the outcomes of the model containing two interacting species with life-histories matching Nile perch and a generalized haplochromine. The dynamic interactions may have depended on size related differences in early juvenile mortality: mouth-brooding haplochromines escape predation mortality in early life stages, unlike Nile perch that have miniscule planktonic eggs and larvae. In our model predation on the latter by planktivorous haplochromine fry act as a stabilizing factor for co-existence, but external mortality on the haplochromines would disrupt this balance in favor of Nile perch. To explain the observed switch, mortality on haplochromines would need to be much higher than the fishing mortality that can be realistically re-constructed from observations. Abrupt concomitant changes in algal and zooplankton composition, decreased water column transparency, and widespread hypoxia from increased eutrophication most likely caused haplochromine biomass decline. We hypothesize that the shift to Nile perch was a consequence of an externally caused, climate triggered, decrease in haplochromine biomass and associated recruitment failure rather than a direct cause of the introduction.