Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Different Prognostic Value of Functional Right Ventricular Parameters in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy/Dysplasia

BACKGROUND -The value of standard two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS -We investigated the impact of right ventricular fractional area change (FAC) and tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia or arrhythmogenic syncope. Among 70 patients who fulfilled the 2010 ARVC/D Task Force Criteria and underwent baseline TTE, 37 (53%) patients experienced a MACE during a median follow-up period of 5.3 (IQR 1.8-9.8) years. Average values for FAC, TAPSE, and TAPSE indexed to body surface area (BSA) decreased over time (p=0.03 for FAC, p=0.03 for TAPSE and p=0.01 for TAPSE/BSA, each vs. baseline). In contrast, median right ventricular end-diastolic area (RVEDA) increased (p=0.001 vs. baseline). Based on the results of Kaplan-Meier estimates, the time between baseline TTE and experiencing MACE was significantly shorter for patients with FAC <23% (p<0.001), TAPSE <17mm (p=0.02) or right atrial (RA) short axis/BSA ≥25mm/m(2) (p=0.04) at baseline. A reduced FAC constituted the strongest predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.08 per 1% decrease; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.12; p<0.001) on bivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS -This long-term observational study indicates that TAPSE and dilation of right-sided cardiac chambers are associated with an increased risk for MACE in ARVC/D patients with advanced disease and a high risk for adverse events. However, FAC is the strongest echocardiographic predictor of adverse outcome in these patients. Our data advocate a role for TTE in risk stratification in patients with ARVC/D, although our results may not be generalizable to lower risk ARVC/D cohorts.

Usefulness of inducible ventricular tachycardia to predict long-term adverse outcomes in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

The role of the electrophysiologic (EP) study for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy is controversial. We investigated the role of inducible sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) for the prediction of an adverse outcome (AO), defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia with hemodynamic compromise or syncope. Of 62 patients who fulfilled the 2010 Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Task Force criteria and underwent an EP study, 30 (48%) experienced an adverse outcome during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. SMVT was inducible in 34 patients (55%), 22 (65%) of whom had an adverse outcome. In contrast, in 28 patients without inducible SMVT, 8 (29%) had an adverse outcome. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed an event-free survival benefit for patients without inducible SMVT (log-rank p = 0.008) with a cumulative survival free of an adverse outcome of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56% to 92%) in the group without inducible SMVT compared to 26% (95% CI 14% to 50%) in the other group after 10 years. The inducibility of SMVT during the EP study (hazard ratio [HR] 2.99, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.27), nonadherence (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.77), and heart failure New York Heart Association functional class II and III (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.87) were associated with an adverse outcome on univariate Cox regression analysis. The inducibility of SMVT (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.03 to 6.16, p = 0.043) and nonadherence (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.99, p = 0.028) remained as significant predictors on multivariate analysis. This long-term observational data suggest that SMVT inducibility during EP study might predict an adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, advocating a role for EP study in risk stratification.

Effect of sedation level on the prevalence of delirium when assessed with CAM-ICU and ICDSC

Purpose We hypothesized that reduced arousability (Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale, RASS, scores −2 to −3) for any reason during delirium assessment increases the apparent prevalence of delirium in intensive care patients. To test this hypothesis, we assessed delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) and Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC) in intensive care patients during sedation stops, and related the findings to the level of sedation, as assessed with RASS score. Methods We assessed delirium in 80 patients with ICU stay longer than 48 h using CAM-ICU and ICDSC during daily sedation stops. Sedation was assessed using RASS. The effect of including patients with a RASS of −2 and −3 during sedation stop (“light to moderate sedation”, eye contact less than 10 s or not at all, respectively) on prevalence of delirium was analyzed. Results A total of 467 patient days were assessed. The proportion of CAM-ICU-positive evaluations decreased from 53 to 31 % (p < 0.001) if assessments from patients at RASS −2/−3 (22 % of all assessments) were excluded. Similarly, the number of positive ICDSC results decreased from 51 to 29 % (p < 0.001). Conclusions Sedation per se can result in positive items of both CAM-ICU and ICDSC, and therefore in a diagnosis of delirium. Consequently, apparent prevalence of delirium is dependent on how a depressed level of consciousness after sedation stop is interpreted (delirium vs persisting sedation). We suggest that any reports on delirium using these assessment tools should be stratified for a sedation score during the assessment.

Persistence of endocrine disruption in zebrafish (Danio rerio) after discontinued exposure to the androgen 17β-trenbolone.

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of the androgenic endocrine disruptor 17β-trenbolone on the sexual development of zebrafish (Danio rerio) with special emphasis on the question of whether adverse outcomes of developmental exposure are reversible or persistent. An exposure scenario including a recovery phase was chosen to assess the potential reversibility of androgenic effects. Zebrafish were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of 17β-trenbolone (1 ng/L-30 ng/L) from fertilization until completion of gonad sexual differentiation (60 d posthatch). Thereafter, exposure was either followed by 40 d of recovery in clean water or continued until 100 d posthatch, the age when zebrafish start being able to reproduce. Fish exposed for 100 d to 10 ng/L or 30 ng/L 17β-trenbolone were masculinized at different biological effect levels, as evidenced from a concentration-dependent shift of the sex ratio toward males as well as a significantly increased maturity of testes. Gonad morphological masculinization occurred in parallel with decreased vitellogenin concentrations in both sexes. Changes of brain aromatase (cyp19b) mRNA expression showed no consistent trend with respect to either exposure duration or concentration. Gonad morphological masculinization as well as the decrease of vitellogenin persisted after depuration over 40 d in clean water. This lack of recovery suggests that androgenic effects on sexual development of zebrafish are irreversible.

Reversibility of endocrine disruption in zebrafish (Danio rerio) after discontinued exposure to the estrogen 17α-ethinylestradiol.

The aim of the present study was to investigate the persistence of the feminizing effects of discontinued 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) exposure on zebrafish (Danio rerio). An exposure scenario covering the sensitive phase of sexual differentiation, as well as final gonad maturation was chosen to examine the estrogenic effects on sexual development of zebrafish. Two exposure scenarios were compared: continuous exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations (0.1-10 ng/L EE2) up to 100 days post-hatch (dph) and developmental exposure up to 60 dph, followed by 40 days of depuration in clean water. The persistence of effects was investigated at different biological organization levels from mRNA to population-relevant endpoints to cover a broad range of important parameters. EE2 had a strong feminizing and inhibiting effect on the sexual development of zebrafish. Brain aromatase (cyp19b) mRNA expression showed no clear response, but vitellogenin levels were significantly elevated, gonad maturation and body growth were inhibited in both genders, and sex ratios were skewed towards females and undifferentiated individuals. To a large extent, all of these effects were reversed after 40 days of recovery, leading to the conclusion that exposure to the estrogen EE2 results in very strong, but reversible underdevelopment and feminization of zebrafish. The present study is the first to show this reversibility at different levels of organization, which gives better insight into the mechanistic basis of estrogenic effects in zebrafish.

Risk Factors for Sternal Wound Infection After Open Heart Operations Vary According to Type of Operation

BACKGROUND This study evaluated whether risk factors for sternal wound infections vary with the type of surgical procedure in cardiac operations. METHODS This was a university hospital surveillance study of 3,249 consecutive patients (28% women) from 2006 to 2010 (median age, 69 years [interquartile range, 60 to 76]; median additive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score, 5 [interquartile range, 3 to 8]) after (1) isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), (2) isolated valve repair or replacement, or (3) combined valve procedures and CABG. All other operations were excluded. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were conducted to identify independent predictors for development of sternal wound infections. RESULTS We detected 122 sternal wound infections (3.8%) in 3,249 patients: 74 of 1,857 patients (4.0%) after CABG, 19 of 799 (2.4%) after valve operations, and 29 of 593 (4.9%) after combined procedures. In CABG patients, bilateral internal thoracic artery harvest, procedural duration exceeding 300 minutes, diabetes, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and female sex (model 1) were independent predictors for sternal wound infection. A second model (model 2), using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, revealed bilateral internal thoracic artery harvest, diabetes, obesity, and the second and third quartiles of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation were independent predictors. In valve patients, model 1 showed only revision for bleeding as an independent predictor for sternal infection, and model 2 yielded both revision for bleeding and diabetes. For combined valve and CABG operations, both regression models demonstrated revision for bleeding and duration of operation exceeding 300 minutes were independent predictors for sternal infection. CONCLUSIONS Risk factors for sternal wound infections after cardiac operations vary with the type of surgical procedure. In patients undergoing valve operations or combined operations, procedure-related risk factors (revision for bleeding, duration of operation) independently predict infection. In patients undergoing CABG, not only procedure-related risk factors but also bilateral internal thoracic artery harvest and patient characteristics (diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, female sex) are predictive of sternal wound infection. Preventive interventions may be justified according to the type of operation.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-Preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-Onset Sepsis "An International Survey and Review of Guidelines"

BACKGROUND Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n=5) were reviewed and compared to the results of the survey. RESULTS 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for five to seven days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.