Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

The relapse risk of AML patients undergoing autologous transplantation correlates with the stem cell mobilizing potential

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is widely used to consolidate first remission in AML. We determined the significance of circulating CD34+ cells at the day of blood stem cell collection in 78 AML patients. Patients mobilizing more than 60,000 CD34+ cells/ml had shorter overall survival (OS; P=0.0274), shorter time to progression (TTP; P=0.0014), and a higher relapse rate (P=0.0177). High levels of CD34+ cells were an independent marker for shorter OS and TTP in a multivariate analysis. These data suggest that ASCT is associated with unfavorable outcome in AML patients with high levels of mobilized peripheral CD34+ cells.

Mapping the increasing risk of human alveolar echinococcosis in Limburg, The Netherlands

The parasite Echinococcus multilocularis was first detected in The Netherlands in 1996 and repeated studies have shown that the parasite subsequently spread in the local population of foxes in the province of Limburg. It was not possible to quantify the human risk of alveolar echinococcosis because no relationship between the amount of parasite eggs in the environment and the probability of infection in humans was known. Here, we used the spread of the parasite in The Netherlands as a predictor, together with recently published historical records of the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in Switzerland, to achieve a relative quantification of the risk. Based on these analyses, the human risk in Limburg was simulated and up to three human cases are predicted by 2018. We conclude that the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in The Netherlands might have changed from a period of negligible risk in the past to a period of increasing risk in the forthcoming years.

Atypical depression and alcohol misuse are related to the cardiovascular risk in the general population

OBJECTIVE: The aims of the present study were to assess the associations between mood, anxiety and substance use disorders, including their subtypes, and the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). METHOD: Thorough physical investigations, biological measures and standardized interview techniques were used to assess 3716 subjects of an urban area, aged 35-66 years. RESULTS: Atypical depression was associated with increased prevalence of overweight, diabetes and the metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.5, 95% C.I. 1.1-2.0; OR = 2.0, 95% C.I. 1.1-3.5, OR = 1.6, 95% C.I. 1.0-2.4 respectively), whereas decreased prevalence of overweight was found in melancholic (OR = 0.7, 95% C.I. 0.6-0.9) and unspecified depression (OR = 0.8, 95% C.I. 0.7-1.0). Alcohol abuse was associated with diabetes (OR = 1.8, 95% C.I. 1.1-2.9) and dyslipidemia (OR = 1.3, 95% C.I. 1.0-1.8), alcohol dependence with dyslipidemia only (OR = 1.4, 95% C.I. 1.0-2.0). Almost all mental disorders were associated with a lifetime history of regular cigarette smoking, and atypical depression, alcohol misuse and drug dependence were associated with inactivity. CONCLUSION: To conclude results emphasize the need to subtype depression and to pay particular attention to the atypical subtype. Comorbid alcohol misuse may further increase the cardiovascular risk. Efforts to diminish smoking in subjects with mental disorders could be crucial measures to reduce their high incidence of cardiovascular disease.

Smoking, apolipoprotein E genotypes, and mortality (the Ludwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health study).

AIMS The genetic polymorphism of apolipoprotein E (APOE) has been suggested to modify the effect of smoking on the development of coronary artery disease (CAD) in apparently healthy persons. The interaction of these factors in persons undergoing coronary angiography is not known. METHODS AND RESULTS We analysed the association between the APOE-genotype, smoking, angiographic CAD, and mortality in 3263 participants of the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health study. APOE-genotypes were associated with CAD [ε22 or ε23: odds ratio (OR) 0.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43-0.71; ε24 or ε34 or ε44: OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.89-1.37 compared with ε33] and moderately with cardiovascular mortality [ε22 or ε23: hazard ratio (HR) 0.71, 95% CI 0.51-0.99; ε33: HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.75-1.14 compared with ε24 or ε34 or ε44]. HRs for total mortality were 1.39 (95% CI 0.39-0.1.67), 2.29 (95% CI 1.85-2.83), 2.07 (95% CI 1.64-2.62), and 2.95 (95% CI 2.10-4.17) in ex-smokers, current smokers, current smokers without, or current smokers with one ε4 allele, respectively, compared with never-smokers. Carrying ε4 increased mortality in current, but not in ex-smokers (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.04-2.64 for interaction). These findings applied to cardiovascular mortality, were robust against adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, and consistent across subgroups. No interaction of smoking and ε4 was seen regarding non-cardiovascular mortality. Smokers with ε4 had reduced average low-density lipoprotein (LDL) diameters, elevated oxidized LDL, and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2. CONCLUSION In persons undergoing coronary angiography, there is a significant interaction between APOE-genotype and smoking. The presence of the ε4 allele in current smokers increases cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

Evaluation of 9 biomarkers for predicting 10-year cardiovascular risk in patients undergoing coronary angiography: findings from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study.

BACKGROUND Conventional factors do not fully explain the distribution of cardiovascular outcomes. Biomarkers are known to participate in well-established pathways associated with cardiovascular disease, and may therefore provide further information over and above conventional risk factors. This study sought to determine whether individual and/or combined assessment of 9 biomarkers improved discrimination, calibration and reclassification of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS 3267 patients (2283 men), aged 18-95 years, at intermediate-to-high-risk of cardiovascular disease were followed in this prospective cohort study. Conventional risk factors and biomarkers were included based on forward and backward Cox proportional stepwise selection models. RESULTS During 10-years of follow-up, 546 fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Four biomarkers (interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D) were retained during stepwise selection procedures for subsequent analyses. Simultaneous inclusion of these biomarkers significantly improved discrimination as measured by the C-index (0.78, P = 0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0219, P<0.0001). Collectively, these biomarkers improved net reclassification for cardiovascular death by 10.6% (P<0.0001) when added to the conventional risk model. CONCLUSIONS In terms of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, a biomarker panel consisting of interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D offered significant incremental value beyond that conveyed by simple conventional risk factors.

Cystatin C is independently associated with total and cardiovascular mortality in individuals undergoing coronary angiography. The Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study.

AIMS Cystatin C is a well established marker of kidney function. There is evidence that cystatin C concentrations are also associated with mortality. The present analysis prospectively evaluated the associations of cystatin C with all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in a well-characterized cohort of persons undergoing angiography, but without overt renal insufficiency. METHODS Cystatin C was available in 2998 persons (mean age: 62.7 ± 10.5 years; 30.3% women). Of those 2346 suffered from coronary artery disease (CAD) and 652 (controls) did not. Creatinine (mean ± SD: 83.1 ± 47.8 vs. 74.1 ± 24.7 μmol/L, p = 0.036) but not Cystatin C (mean ± SD: 1.02 ± 0.44 vs. 0.92 ± 0.26 mg/L, p = 0.065) was significantly higher in patients with CAD. After a median follow-up of 9.9 years, in total 898 (30%) deaths occurred, 554 (18.5%) due to CV disease and 326 (10.9%) due to non-CV causes. Multivariable-adjusted Cox analysis (adjusting for eGFR and established cardiovascular risk factors, lipid lowering therapy, angiographic coronary artery disease, and C-reactive protein) revealed that patients in the highest cystatin C quartile were at an increased risk for all-cause (hazard ratio (HR) 1.93, 95% CI 1.50-2.48) and CV mortality (HR 2.05 95% CI 1.48-2.84) compared to those in the lowest quartile. The addition of cystatin C to a model consisting of established cardiovascular risk factors increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for CV and all-cause mortality, but the difference was statistically not significant. However, reclassification analysis revealed significant improvement by addition of cystatin C for CV and all-cause mortality (p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION The concentration of cystatin C is strongly associated with long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients referred to coronary angiography, irrespective of creatinine-based renal function.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Poor Reliability between Cochrane Reviewers and Blinded External Reviewers When Applying the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool in Physical Therapy Trials

OBJECTIVES To test the inter-rater reliability of the RoB tool applied to Physical Therapy (PT) trials by comparing ratings from Cochrane review authors with those of blinded external reviewers. METHODS Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in PT were identified by searching the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for meta-analysis of PT interventions. RoB assessments were conducted independently by 2 reviewers blinded to the RoB ratings reported in the Cochrane reviews. Data on RoB assessments from Cochrane reviews and other characteristics of reviews and trials were extracted. Consensus assessments between the two reviewers were then compared with the RoB ratings from the Cochrane reviews. Agreement between Cochrane and blinded external reviewers was assessed using weighted kappa (κ). RESULTS In total, 109 trials included in 17 Cochrane reviews were assessed. Inter-rater reliability on the overall RoB assessment between Cochrane review authors and blinded external reviewers was poor (κ  =  0.02, 95%CI: -0.06, 0.06]). Inter-rater reliability on individual domains of the RoB tool was poor (median κ  = 0.19), ranging from κ  =  -0.04 ("Other bias") to κ  =  0.62 ("Sequence generation"). There was also no agreement (κ  =  -0.29, 95%CI: -0.81, 0.35]) in the overall RoB assessment at the meta-analysis level. CONCLUSIONS Risk of bias assessments of RCTs using the RoB tool are not consistent across different research groups. Poor agreement was not only demonstrated at the trial level but also at the meta-analysis level. Results have implications for decision making since different recommendations can be reached depending on the group analyzing the evidence. Improved guidelines to consistently apply the RoB tool and revisions to the tool for different health areas are needed.

Copper, ceruloplasmin, and long-term cardiovascular and total mortality (the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study)

BACKGROUND Copper and its main transport protein ceruloplasmin have been suggested to promote the development of atherosclerosis. Most of the data come from experimental and animal model studies. Copper and mortality have not been simultaneously evaluated in patients undergoing coronary angiography. METHODS AND RESULTS We examined whether serum copper and ceruloplasmin concentrations are associated with angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and mortality from all causes and cardiovascular causes in 3253 participants of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study. Age and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for death from any cause were 2.23 (95% CI, 1.85-2.68) for copper and 2.63 (95% CI, 2.17-3.20) for ceruloplasmin when we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles. Corresponding hazard ratios (HR) for death from cardiovascular causes were 2.58 (95% CI, 2.05-3.25) and 3.02 (95% CI, 2.36-3.86), respectively. Further adjustments for various risk factors and clinical variables considerably attenuated these associations, which, however, were still statistically significant and the results remained consistent across subgroups. CONCLUSIONS The elevated concentrations of both copper and ceruloplasmin are independently associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular causes.

Low-density lipoprotein particle diameter and mortality: the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study.

AIMS The aim of the study was to examine whether differences in average diameter of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles were associated with total and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS We studied 1643 subjects referred to coronary angiography, who did not receive lipid-lowering drugs. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 398 patients died, of these 246 from cardiovascular causes. We calculated average particle diameters of LDL from the composition of LDL obtained by β-quantification. When LDL with intermediate average diameters (16.5-16.8 nm) were used as reference category, the hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors for death from any cause were 1.71 (95% CI: 1.31-2.25) and 1.24 (95% CI: 0.95-1.63) in patients with large (>16.8 nm) or small LDL (<16.5 nm), respectively. Adjusted HRs for death from cardiovascular causes were 1.89 (95% CI: 1.32-2.70) and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.06-2.12) in patients with large or small LDL, respectively. Patients with large LDL had higher concentrations of the inflammatory markers interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein than patients with small or intermediate LDL. Equilibrium density gradient ultracentrifugation revealed characteristic and distinct profiles of LDL particles in persons with large (approximately even distribution of intermediate-density lipoproteins and LDL-1 through LDL-6) intermediate (peak concentration at LDL-4) or small (peak concentration at LDL-6) average LDL particle diameters. CONCLUSIONS Calculated LDL particle diameters identify patients with different profiles of LDL subfractions. Both large and small LDL diameters are independently associated with increased risk mortality of all causes and, more so, due to cardiovascular causes compared with LDL of intermediate size.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Hemoglobin, iron metabolism and angiographic coronary artery disease (The Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study).

BACKGROUND Anemia has been shown to be a risk factor for coronary artery disease and mortality. The involvement of body iron stores in the development of CAD remains controversial. So far, studies that examined hemoglobin and parameters of iron metabolism simultaneously do not exist. METHODS AND RESULTS Hemoglobin and iron status were determined in 1480 patients with stable angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and in 682 individuals in whom CAD had been ruled out by angiography. The multivariate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin and iron were 1.62 (95%CI: 1.22-2.16), and 2.05 (95%CI: 1.51-2.78), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. The fully adjusted ORs for CAD in the lowest quartiles of transferrin saturation, ferritin (F) and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)/log10F index were 1.69 (95%CI: 1.25-2.27), 1.98 (95%CI: 1.48-2.65), and 1.64 (95%CI: 1.23-2.18), respectively compared to their highest gender-specific quartiles. When adjusting in addition for iron and ferritin the OR for CAD in the lowest quartiles of hemoglobin was still 1.40 (95%CI: 1.04-1.90) compared to the highest gender-specific quartiles. Thus, the associations between either iron status or low hemoglobin and CAD appeared independent from each other. The sTfR was only marginally associated with angiographic CAD. CONCLUSIONS Both low hemoglobin and iron depletion are independently associated with angiographic CAD.

Reducing fall risk in the elderly: risk factors and fall prevention, a systematic review

Falls in the elderly are a major source of injury resulting in disability and hospitalization. They have a significant impact on individual basis (loss of quality of live, nursing home admissions) and social basis (healthcare costs). Even though falls in the elderly are common there are some well studied risk factors. Special emphasis should be put on sarcopenia/frailty, polypharmacy, multimorbidity, vitamin D status and home hazards. There are several well evaluated fall prevention approaches that either target a single fall risk factor or focus on multiple risk factors. It has to be kept in mind that not all fall prevention strategies are useful for all patients as for example dietary substitution of vitamin D is only recommended in people with increased risk for a vitamin D deficiency. Home hazard reduction strategies are more effective when combined with other fall prevention approaches such as for example exercise programs. In conclusion elderly patients should routinely be screened for relevant risk factors and if need an indiviudally targeted fall prevention program compiled.