Public-health and individual approaches to antiretroviral therapy: township South Africa and Switzerland compared

BACKGROUND: The provision of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource-limited settings follows a public health approach, which is characterised by a limited number of regimens and the standardisation of clinical and laboratory monitoring. In industrialized countries doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, supported by resistance testing and frequent laboratory monitoring. We compared virologic response, changes to first-line regimens, and mortality in HIV-infected patients starting HAART in South Africa and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and two HAART programmes in townships of Cape Town, South Africa. We included treatment-naïve patients aged 16 y or older who had started treatment with at least three drugs since 2001, and excluded intravenous drug users. Data from a total of 2,348 patients from South Africa and 1,016 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analysed. Median baseline CD4+ T cell counts were 80 cells/mul in South Africa and 204 cells/mul in Switzerland. In South Africa, patients started with one of four first-line regimens, which was subsequently changed in 514 patients (22%). In Switzerland, 36 first-line regimens were used initially, and these were changed in 539 patients (53%). In most patients HIV-1 RNA was suppressed to 500 copies/ml or less within one year: 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95%-97%) in South Africa and 96% (94%-97%) in Switzerland, and 26% (22%-29%) and 27% (24%-31%), respectively, developed viral rebound within two years. Mortality was higher in South Africa than in Switzerland during the first months of HAART: adjusted hazard ratios were 5.90 (95% CI 1.81-19.2) during months 1-3 and 1.77 (0.90-3.50) during months 4-24. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the highly individualised approach in Switzerland, programmatic HAART in South Africa resulted in similar virologic outcomes, with relatively few changes to initial regimens. Further innovation and resources are required in South Africa to both achieve more timely access to HAART and improve the prognosis of patients who start HAART with advanced disease.

Like will to like: abundances of closely related species can predict susceptibility to intestinal colonization by pathogenic and commensal bacteria

The intestinal ecosystem is formed by a complex, yet highly characteristic microbial community. The parameters defining whether this community permits invasion of a new bacterial species are unclear. In particular, inhibition of enteropathogen infection by the gut microbiota ( = colonization resistance) is poorly understood. To analyze the mechanisms of microbiota-mediated protection from Salmonella enterica induced enterocolitis, we used a mouse infection model and large scale high-throughput pyrosequencing. In contrast to conventional mice (CON), mice with a gut microbiota of low complexity (LCM) were highly susceptible to S. enterica induced colonization and enterocolitis. Colonization resistance was partially restored in LCM-animals by co-housing with conventional mice for 21 days (LCM(con21)). 16S rRNA sequence analysis comparing LCM, LCM(con21) and CON gut microbiota revealed that gut microbiota complexity increased upon conventionalization and correlated with increased resistance to S. enterica infection. Comparative microbiota analysis of mice with varying degrees of colonization resistance allowed us to identify intestinal ecosystem characteristics associated with susceptibility to S. enterica infection. Moreover, this system enabled us to gain further insights into the general principles of gut ecosystem invasion by non-pathogenic, commensal bacteria. Mice harboring high commensal E. coli densities were more susceptible to S. enterica induced gut inflammation. Similarly, mice with high titers of Lactobacilli were more efficiently colonized by a commensal Lactobacillus reuteri(RR) strain after oral inoculation. Upon examination of 16S rRNA sequence data from 9 CON mice we found that closely related phylotypes generally display significantly correlated abundances (co-occurrence), more so than distantly related phylotypes. Thus, in essence, the presence of closely related species can increase the chance of invasion of newly incoming species into the gut ecosystem. We provide evidence that this principle might be of general validity for invasion of bacteria in preformed gut ecosystems. This might be of relevance for human enteropathogen infections as well as therapeutic use of probiotic commensal bacteria.

Phylogenetic approach reveals that virus genotype largely determines HIV set-point viral load

HIV virulence, i.e. the time of progression to AIDS, varies greatly among patients. As for other rapidly evolving pathogens of humans, it is difficult to know if this variance is controlled by the genotype of the host or that of the virus because the transmission chain is usually unknown. We apply the phylogenetic comparative approach (PCA) to estimate the heritability of a trait from one infection to the next, which indicates the control of the virus genotype over this trait. The idea is to use viral RNA sequences obtained from patients infected by HIV-1 subtype B to build a phylogeny, which approximately reflects the transmission chain. Heritability is measured statistically as the propensity for patients close in the phylogeny to exhibit similar infection trait values. The approach reveals that up to half of the variance in set-point viral load, a trait associated with virulence, can be heritable. Our estimate is significant and robust to noise in the phylogeny. We also check for the consistency of our approach by showing that a trait related to drug resistance is almost entirely heritable. Finally, we show the importance of taking into account the transmission chain when estimating correlations between infection traits. The fact that HIV virulence is, at least partially, heritable from one infection to the next has clinical and epidemiological implications. The difference between earlier studies and ours comes from the quality of our dataset and from the power of the PCA, which can be applied to large datasets and accounts for within-host evolution. The PCA opens new perspectives for approaches linking clinical data and evolutionary biology because it can be extended to study other traits or other infectious diseases.

Spatio-Temporal Credit Assignment in Neuronal Population Learning

n learning from trial and error, animals need to relate behavioral decisions to environmental reinforcement even though it may be difficult to assign credit to a particular decision when outcomes are uncertain or subject to delays. When considering the biophysical basis of learning, the credit-assignment problem is compounded because the behavioral decisions themselves result from the spatio-temporal aggregation of many synaptic releases. We present a model of plasticity induction for reinforcement learning in a population of leaky integrate and fire neurons which is based on a cascade of synaptic memory traces. Each synaptic cascade correlates presynaptic input first with postsynaptic events, next with the behavioral decisions and finally with external reinforcement. For operant conditioning, learning succeeds even when reinforcement is delivered with a delay so large that temporal contiguity between decision and pertinent reward is lost due to intervening decisions which are themselves subject to delayed reinforcement. This shows that the model provides a viable mechanism for temporal credit assignment. Further, learning speeds up with increasing population size, so the plasticity cascade simultaneously addresses the spatial problem of assigning credit to synapses in different population neurons. Simulations on other tasks, such as sequential decision making, serve to contrast the performance of the proposed scheme to that of temporal difference-based learning. We argue that, due to their comparative robustness, synaptic plasticity cascades are attractive basic models of reinforcement learning in the brain.

Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

Intravaginal practices, bacterial vaginosis, and HIV infection in women: individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Identifying modifiable factors that increase women's vulnerability to HIV is a critical step in developing effective female-initiated prevention interventions. The primary objective of this study was to pool individual participant data from prospective longitudinal studies to investigate the association between intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary objectives were to investigate associations between intravaginal practices and disrupted vaginal flora; and between disrupted vaginal flora and HIV acquisition. Methods and Findings We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 13 prospective cohort studies involving 14,874 women, of whom 791 acquired HIV infection during 21,218 woman years of follow-up. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The level of between-study heterogeneity was low in all analyses (I2 values 0.0%–16.1%). Intravaginal use of cloth or paper (pooled adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.83), insertion of products to dry or tighten the vagina (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00–1.71), and intravaginal cleaning with soap (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53) remained associated with HIV acquisition after controlling for age, marital status, and number of sex partners in the past 3 months. Intravaginal cleaning with soap was also associated with the development of intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis in women with normal vaginal flora at baseline (pooled adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.04–1.47). Use of cloth or paper was not associated with the development of disrupted vaginal flora. Intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis were each associated with HIV acquisition in multivariable models when measured at baseline (aHR 1.54 and 1.69, p<0.001) or at the visit before the estimated date of HIV infection (aHR 1.41 and 1.53, p<0.001), respectively. Conclusions This study provides evidence to suggest that some intravaginal practices increase the risk of HIV acquisition but a direct causal pathway linking intravaginal cleaning with soap, disruption of vaginal flora, and HIV acquisition has not yet been demonstrated. More consistency in the definition and measurement of specific intravaginal practices is warranted so that the effects of specific intravaginal practices and products can be further elucidated.

Proteins encoded in genomic regions associated with immune-mediated disease physically interact and suggest underlying biology

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have defined over 150 genomic regions unequivocally containing variation predisposing to immune-mediated disease. Inferring disease biology from these observations, however, hinges on our ability to discover the molecular processes being perturbed by these risk variants. It has previously been observed that different genes harboring causal mutations for the same Mendelian disease often physically interact. We sought to evaluate the degree to which this is true of genes within strongly associated loci in complex disease. Using sets of loci defined in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and Crohn's disease (CD) GWAS, we build protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks for genes within associated loci and find abundant physical interactions between protein products of associated genes. We apply multiple permutation approaches to show that these networks are more densely connected than chance expectation. To confirm biological relevance, we show that the components of the networks tend to be expressed in similar tissues relevant to the phenotypes in question, suggesting the network indicates common underlying processes perturbed by risk loci. Furthermore, we show that the RA and CD networks have predictive power by demonstrating that proteins in these networks, not encoded in the confirmed list of disease associated loci, are significantly enriched for association to the phenotypes in question in extended GWAS analysis. Finally, we test our method in 3 non-immune traits to assess its applicability to complex traits in general. We find that genes in loci associated to height and lipid levels assemble into significantly connected networks but did not detect excess connectivity among Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) loci beyond chance. Taken together, our results constitute evidence that, for many of the complex diseases studied here, common genetic associations implicate regions encoding proteins that physically interact in a preferential manner, in line with observations in Mendelian disease.

A research agenda for malaria eradication: basic science and enabling technologies

Today's malaria control efforts are limited by our incomplete understanding of the biology of Plasmodium and of the complex relationships between human populations and the multiple species of mosquito and parasite. Research priorities include the development of in vitro culture systems for the complete life cycle of P. falciparum and P. vivax and the development of an appropriate liver culture system to study hepatic stages. In addition, genetic technologies for the manipulation of Plasmodium need to be improved, the entire parasite metabolome needs to be characterized to identify new druggable targets, and improved information systems for monitoring the changes in epidemiology, pathology, and host-parasite-vector interactions as a result of intensified control need to be established to bridge the gap between bench, preclinical, clinical, and population-based sciences.