Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

A complete-pelvis segmentation framework for image-free total hip arthroplasty (THA): methodology and clinical study

Background Complete-pelvis segmentation in antero-posterior pelvic radiographs is required to create a patient-specific three-dimensional pelvis model for surgical planning and postoperative assessment in image-free navigation of total hip arthroplasty. Methods A fast and robust framework for accurately segmenting the complete pelvis is presented, consisting of two consecutive modules. In the first module, a three-stage method was developed to delineate the left hemipelvis based on statistical appearance and shape models. To handle complex pelvic structures, anatomy-specific information processing techniques were employed. As the input to the second module, the delineated left hemi-pelvis was then reflected about an estimated symmetry line of the radiograph to initialize the right hemi-pelvis segmentation. The right hemi-pelvis was segmented by the same three-stage method, Results Two experiments conducted on respectively 143 and 40 AP radiographs demonstrated a mean segmentation accuracy of 1.61±0.68 mm. A clinical study to investigate the postoperative assessment of acetabular cup orientations based on the proposed framework revealed an average accuracy of 1.2°±0.9° and 1.6°±1.4° for anteversion and inclination, respectively. Delineation of each radiograph costs less than one minute. Conclusions Despite further validation needed, the preliminary results implied the underlying clinical applicability of the proposed framework for image-free THA.

GetReal in network meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Pairwise meta-analysis is an established statistical tool for synthesizing evidence from multiple trials, but it is informative only about the relative efficacy of two specific interventions. The usefulness of pairwise meta-analysis is thus limited in real-life medical practice, where many competing interventions may be available for a certain condition and studies informing some of the pairwise comparisons may be lacking. This commonly encountered scenario has led to the development of network meta-analysis (NMA). In the last decade, several applications, methodological developments, and empirical studies in NMA have been published, and the area is thriving as its relevance to public health is increasingly recognized. This article presents a review of the relevant literature on NMA methodology aiming to pinpoint the developments that have appeared in the field. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.