Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks

The inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400–1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions, the understanding of mechanisms shaping the climate on a continental scale is less robust. In an ensemble of transient model simulations and a new type of sensitivity experiments with artificial sea ice growth, the authors identify a sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism that amplifies the Little Ice Age cooling in the North Atlantic–European region and produces the temperature pattern suggested by paleoclimatic reconstructions. Initiated by increasing negative forcing, the Arctic sea ice substantially expands at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. The excess of sea ice is exported to the subpolar North Atlantic, where it melts, thereby weakening convection of the ocean. Consequently, northward ocean heat transport is reduced, reinforcing the expansion of the sea ice and the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Nordic Seas, sea surface height anomalies cause the oceanic recirculation to strengthen at the expense of the warm Barents Sea inflow, thereby further reinforcing sea ice growth. The absent ocean–atmosphere heat flux in the Barents Sea results in an amplified cooling over Northern Europe. The positive nature of this feedback mechanism enables sea ice to remain in an expanded state for decades up to a century, favoring sustained cold periods over Europe such as the Little Ice Age. Support for the feedback mechanism comes from recent proxy reconstructions around the Nordic Seas.

Where to find 1.5 million yr old ice for the IPICS "Oldest-Ice" ice core

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Three-dimensional Vortex Structures on Heated Micro-lattice in a Gas

This paper addresses the microscale heat transfer problem from heated lattice to the gas. A micro-device for enhanced heat transfer is presented and numerically investigated. Thermal creep induces 3-D vortex structures in the vicinity of the lattice. The gas flow is in the slip flow regime (Knudsen number Kn⩽0.1Kn⩽0.1). The simulations are performed using slip flow Navier–Stokes equations with boundary condition formulations proposed by Maxwell and Smoluchowski. In this study the wire thicknesses and distances of the heated lattice are varied. The surface geometrical properties alter significantly heat flux through the surface.

Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

The influence of a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a set of simulations with different GrIS realizations performed with a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation, which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse-rate-corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHF). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHF. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHF, and anomalous low winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the Eemian ice found in the NEEM core, our model suggests that up to 3.1 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Effect of combined drought and heat stress on heat shock proteins in wheat varieties

Introduction: The re sponse of crop plants ex posed on drought or heat shock is related to de crease in the synthesis of normal proteins, accompanied by increased translation of heat shock proteins (HSPs). Though drought and heat stress have been studied individually, little is known about their combined effect on plants. Methods: The wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties (Katya-tolerant, Sadovo or Mladka-susceptible) were potted in soil. Eight-day-old plants were ex posed to with drawing water for seven days. Heat shock was realized in growth chamber at 40 °C for 6h. A combination of drought and heat shock was per formed by subjecting drought-stressed plants to heat shock treatment. Expression of HSPs in the first leaf of wheat varieties was analyzed by SDS electrophoresis and immunoblotting. Polyclonal antibodies against HSP20, HSP60, HSP110 and mononclonal antibodies against HSP70 were used to distinguish the mentioned HSPs. Results: The leaf relative water content (RWC), which indicated the level of plant dehydration decreased significantly (34 %) under drought stressed conditions The electrolyte leakage of ions (EL), representing the level of the cell membrane stability in creased mark edly (68 %), especially under combination of drought and heat. Maximum EL was ob served in drought susceptible varieties Sadovo and Mladka. Drought and heat shock combination in the wheat plants resulted in the induction of specific HSPs. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that the response of the wheat plants to a combination of drought and heat stress is different from the response of plants to each of these stresses applied separately. Induction of synergetic effect on HSP expression in case of combination between drought and heat was discussed in the case of two contrasting wheat varieties.

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

THE EFFECTS OF IRRADIATION ON HOT JOVIAN ATMOSPHERES: HEAT REDISTRIBUTION AND ENERGY DISSIPATION

Hot Jupiters, due to the proximity to their parent stars, are subjected to a strong irradiating flux that governs their radiative and dynamical properties. We compute a suite of three-dimensional circulation models with dual-band radiative transfer, exploring a relevant range of irradiation temperatures, both with and without temperature inversions. We find that, for irradiation temperatures T irr lsim 2000 K, heat redistribution is very efficient, producing comparable dayside and nightside fluxes. For T irr ≈ 2200-2400 K, the redistribution starts to break down, resulting in a high day-night flux contrast. Our simulations indicate that the efficiency of redistribution is primarily governed by the ratio of advective to radiative timescales. Models with temperature inversions display a higher day-night contrast due to the deposition of starlight at higher altitudes, but we find this opacity-driven effect to be secondary compared to the effects of irradiation. The hotspot offset from the substellar point is large when insolation is weak and redistribution is efficient, and decreases as redistribution breaks down. The atmospheric flow can be potentially subjected to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (as indicated by the Richardson number) only in the uppermost layers, with a depth that penetrates down to pressures of a few millibars at most. Shocks penetrate deeper, down to several bars in the hottest model. Ohmic dissipation generally occurs down to deeper levels than shock dissipation (to tens of bars), but the penetration depth varies with the atmospheric opacity. The total dissipated Ohmic power increases steeply with the strength of the irradiating flux and the dissipation depth recedes into the atmosphere, favoring radius inflation in the most irradiated objects. A survey of the existing data, as well as the inferences made from them, reveals that our results are broadly consistent with the observational trends.

Viscous-Flow Approach to In Situ Infiltration and In Vitro Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Determination

Infiltration is dominantly gravity driven, and a viscous-flow approach was developed. Laminar film flow equilibrates gravity with the viscous force and a constant flow velocity evolves during a period lasting 3/2 times the duration of a constant input rate, qS. Film thickness F and the specific contact area L of the film per unit soil volume are the key parameters. Sprinkler irrigation produced in situ time series of volumetric water contents, θ(z,t), as determined with TDR probes. The wetting front velocity v and the time series of the mobile water content, w(z,t) were deduced from θ(z,t). In vitro steady flow in a core of saturated soil provided volume flux density, q(z,t), and flow velocity, v, as determined from a heat front velocity. The F and L parameters of the in situ and the in vitro experiments were compared. The macropore-flow restriction states that, for a particular permeable medium, the specific contact area L must be independent from qS i.e., dL/dqS = 0. If true, then the relationship of qS ∝ v3/2 could scale a wide range of input rates 0 ≤ qS ≤ saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ksat, into a permeable medium, and kinematic-wave theory would become a versatile tool to deal with non-equilibrium flow. The viscous-flow approach is based on hydromechanical principles similar to Darcy’s law, but currently it is not suited to deduce flow properties from specified individual spatial structures of permeable media.