Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Das Paradox der Wahlbeteiligung, das keines ist. Eine theoretische Rekonstruktion und empirische Anwendung des Ansatzes von Downs aus der Perspektive der Theorie subjektiver Werterwartung

Seit der richtungweisenden wie einflußreichen Arbeit von Downs (1957) wird in der empirischen Wahlforschung das „Paradox der Wahlbeteiligung“ kontrovers diskutiert. Kritiker des ökonomischen Ansatzes führen gerade dieses Paradox an, um die Grenzen von Rational-Choice-Theorien aufzuzeigen (z.B. Green und Shapiro 1994). Ausgangspunkt dieser Debatte ist zunächst der Versuch von Downs, die Beteiligung von Individuen an politischen Wahlen mit der Theorie rationaler Entscheidung zu erklären: Demnach beteiligen sich Wahlberechtigte an Wahlen, wenn aus ihrer Sicht der erwartete Nutzen der Wahlbeteiligung (etwa persönliche Vorteile nach dem Wahlsieg der präferierten Partei) die anfallenden Kosten der Wahlbeteiligung (etwa zeitlicher Aufwand für Beschaffung, Auswertung und Analyse von Informationen über das Politikangebot) übersteigt. Wahlberechtigte diskontieren den zu maximierenden Nutzen aus ihrer Wahlbeteiligung mit der Wahrscheinlichkeit, daß ihre eigene Stimme der präferierten Partei zum Wahlsieg verhilft. Allerdings tendiert diese Wahrscheinlichkeit, den Wahlausgang alleine zu entscheiden, mit der anwachsenden Größe des Elektorats gegen Null. Da aber aus Sicht des einzelnen Wählers die eigene Stimme so gut wie keinen entscheidenden Einfluß auf den Wahlausgang hat, aber mit Sicherheit Informations-, Opportunitäts- und Teilnahmekosten anfallen, die dann immer größer als die mit der Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit gewichteten Nutzeneinkommen sind, ist es höchst unwahrscheinlich, daß sich ein instrumentell rationaler Akteur an politischen Wahlen beteiligt (Downs 1957: 244–245). Jedoch sind in modernen Demokratien die Beteiligungen an politischen Wahlen mitunter beträchtlich, und diese empirische Beobachtung widerspricht der ökonomischen Theorie des Wählens von Downs (1957)1. Es stellt sich also die Frage, warum sich Wahlberechtigte an politischen Wahlen beteiligen und warum die Wahlbeteiligungen zumeist recht hoch sind (vgl. Palfrey und Rosenthal 1993).

Cerebellar disorders in childhood: cognitive problems

Over the last decade, increasing evidence of cognitive functions of the cerebellum during development and learning processes could be ascertained. Posterior fossa malformations such as cerebellar hypoplasia or Joubert syndrome are known to be related to developmental problems in a marked to moderate extent. More detailed analyses reveal special deficits in attention, processing speed, visuospatial functions, and language. A study about Dandy Walker syndrome states a relationship of abnormalities in vermis lobulation with developmental problems. Further lobulation or volume abnormalities of the cerebellum and/or vermis can be detected in disorders as fragile X syndrome, Downs's syndrome, William's syndrome, and autism. Neuropsychological studies reveal a relation of dyslexia and attention deficit disorder with cerebellar functions. These functional studies are supported by structural abnormalities in neuroimaging in these disorders. Acquired cerebellar or vermis atrophy was found in groups of children with developmental problems such as prenatal alcohol exposure or extreme prematurity. Also, focal lesions during childhood or adolescence such as cerebellar tumor or stroke are related with neuropsychological abnormalities, which are most pronounced in visuospatial, language, and memory functions. In addition, cerebellar atrophy was shown to be a bad prognostic factor considering cognitive outcome in children after brain trauma and leukemia. In ataxia teleangiectasia, a neurodegenerative disorder affecting primarily the cerebellar cortex, a reduced verbal intelligence quotient and problems of judgment of duration are a hint of the importance of the cerebellum in cognition. In conclusion, the cerebellum seems to play an important role in many higher cognitive functions, especially in learning. There is a suggestion that the earlier the incorrect influence, the more pronounced the problems.

Neural correlate of spatial presence in an arousing and noninteractive virtual reality: an EEG and psychophysiology study

Using electroencephalography (EEG), psychophysiology, and psychometric measures, this is the first study which investigated the neurophysiological underpinnings of spatial presence. Spatial presence is considered a sense of being physically situated within a spatial environment portrayed by a medium (e.g., television, virtual reality). Twelve healthy children and 11 healthy adolescents were watching different virtual roller coaster scenarios. During a control session, the roller coaster cab drove through a horizontal roundabout track. The following realistic roller coaster rides consisted of spectacular ups, downs, and loops. Low-resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) and event-related desynchronization (ERD) were used to analyze the EEG data. As expected, we found that, compared to the control condition, experiencing a virtual roller coaster ride evoked in both groups strong SP experiences, increased electrodermal reactions, and activations in parietal brain areas known to be involved in spatial navigation. In addition, brain areas that receive homeostatic afferents from somatic and visceral sensations of the body were strongly activated. Most interesting, children (as compared to adolescents) reported higher spatial presence experiences and demonstrated a different frontal activation pattern. While adolescents showed increased activation in prefrontal areas known to be involved in the control of executive functions, children demonstrated a decreased activity in these brain regions. Interestingly, recent neuroanatomical and neurophysiological studies have shown that the frontal brain continues to develop to adult status well into adolescence. Thus, the result of our study implies that the increased spatial presence experience in children may result from the not fully developed control functions of the frontal cortex.

Development and validation of a novel pedometer algorithm to quantify extended characteristics of the locomotor behavior of dairy cows

Behavior is one of the most important indicators for assessing cattle health and well-being. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a novel algorithm to monitor locomotor behavior of loose-housed dairy cows based on the output of the RumiWatch pedometer (ITIN+HOCH GmbH, Fütterungstechnik, Liestal, Switzerland). Data of locomotion were acquired by simultaneous pedometer measurements at a sampling rate of 10 Hz and video recordings for manual observation later. The study consisted of 3 independent experiments. Experiment 1 was carried out to develop and validate the algorithm for lying behavior, experiment 2 for walking and standing behavior, and experiment 3 for stride duration and stride length. The final version was validated, using the raw data, collected from cows not included in the development of the algorithm. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between accelerometer variables and respective data derived from the video recordings (gold standard). Dichotomous data were expressed as the proportion of correctly detected events, and the overall difference for continuous data was expressed as the relative measurement error. The proportions for correctly detected events or bouts were 1 for stand ups, lie downs, standing bouts, and lying bouts and 0.99 for walking bouts. The relative measurement error and Spearman correlation coefficient for lying time were 0.09% and 1; for standing time, 4.7% and 0.96; for walking time, 17.12% and 0.96; for number of strides, 6.23% and 0.98; for stride duration, 6.65% and 0.75; and for stride length, 11.92% and 0.81, respectively. The strong to very high correlations of the variables between visual observation and converted pedometer data indicate that the novel RumiWatch algorithm may markedly improve automated livestock management systems for efficient health monitoring of dairy cows.

PARP Inhibitor Resistance - What Is Beyond BRCA1 or BRCA2 Restoration?

Nearly 10 years ago the usefulness of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors to kill BRCA1 or BRCA2-deficient cells was reported, and this finding has served as a prime example of the concept of synthetic lethality in the context of anticancer therapy. The clinical translation of this finding has undergone several ups and downs, however. Despite spectacular responses seen in some patients with BRCA-deficient breast or ovarian cancers, other patients did not show the expected benefit from PARP inhibitor therapy. Thus, like for all novel tailored anti-cancer drugs, upfront and secondary resistance remain major hurdles in the implementation of the initial preclinical finding. We know at least one clinically relevant mechanism of PARP inhibitor resistance: the reversion of BRCA function by secondary mutations. Nevertheless, it is also clear that this mechanism does not explain all cases of resistance. At the moment, we only have a poor understanding of BRCA reversion-independent resistance mechanisms. Preclinical data have pointed in several directions, e.g. increased drug efflux, reduced drug target levels, or alternative DNA repair. Here, we discuss these mechanisms with a focus on potential DNA repair adaptations.