Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Cardiogoniometric parameters for detection of coronary artery disease at rest as a function of stenosis localization and distribution

Cardiogoniometry (CGM), a spatiotemporal electrocardiologic 5-lead method with automated analysis, may be useful in primary healthcare for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) at rest. Our aim was to systematically develop a stenosis-specific parameter set for global CAD detection. In 793 consecutively admitted patients with presumed non-acute CAD, CGM data were collected prior to elective coronary angiography and analyzed retrospectively. 658 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 405 had CAD verified by coronary angiography; the 253 patients with normal coronary angiograms served as the non-CAD controls. Study patients--matched for age, BMI, and gender--were angiographically assigned to 8 stenosis-specific CAD categories or to the controls. One CGM parameter possessing significance (P < .05) and the best diagnostic accuracy was matched to one CAD category. The area under the ROC curve was .80 (global CAD versus controls). A set containing 8 stenosis-specific CGM parameters described variability of R vectors and R-T angles, spatial position and potential distribution of R/T vectors, and ST/T segment alterations. Our parameter set systematically combines CAD categories into an algorithm that detects CAD globally. Prospective validation in clinical studies is ongoing.

'A rose is a rose is a rose', but at-risk criteria differ

Background: Over the last 15 years, efforts to detect psychoses early in their prodromal states have greatly progressed; meanwhile, ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria have been the subject of such consensus that parts of them have been proposed for inclusion in DSM-5 in terms of an attenuated psychosis syndrome. However, it is frequently unacknowledged that the definitions and operationalizations of UHR-related at-risk criteria, including the relevant attenuated psychotic symptoms, vary considerably across centers and time and, thus, between prediction studies. Methods: These variations in UHR criteria are described and discussed with reference to the rates of transition to psychosis, their prevalence in the general population and the proposed new operationalization of the attenuated psychosis syndrome. Results: A comparison of samples recruited according to different UHR operationalizations reveals differences in the distribution of UHR criteria and transition rates as well as in the prevalence rates of at-risk criteria in the general population. Conclusion: The evidence base for the introduction of such a new syndrome is weaker than the number of studies using supposedly equal UHR criteria would at first suggest. Thus, studies comparing the effects of different (sub-)criteria not only on transition rates and outcomes but also on other important aspects, such as neurocognitive performance and brain imaging results, are necessary. Meanwhile, the preliminary attenuated psychosis syndrome in DSM-5 should not follow an altogether new definition but, rather, the currently most reliable UHR definition, which must still demonstrate its reliability and validity outside specialized psychiatric services.

Ethnic differences in macular pigment density and distribution

PURPOSE: Many epidemiologic studies suggest a number of risk factors that may be associated with progression of age-related maculopathy (ARM). In this study, the authors investigate ethnic differences in macular pigment density (MPD) and macular pigment (MP) distribution. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were healthy subjects, aged 35 to 49 years, visual acuity >or=20/20, race ethnicity white non-Hispanic (WNH) or African. All subjects underwent the following examinations: best-corrected ETDRS visual acuity (VA), measurements of MPD, and spatial distribution of MP with a modified confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope according to a standard protocol. MPD maps were calculated from autofluorescence images recorded at 488 nm and 514 nm. Central macular pigment density (MPDc) was quantified from MPD maps within 0.5 degrees around the center of the fovea. RESULTS: In total, 118 healthy subjects (61 women, 57 men) aged 35 to 49 years (mean, 42.5 +/- 3.6 years) were recruited for the study. Sixty-seven healthy subjects were WNH and 51 were African. Visual acuity ranged from 20/20 to 20/16 in the study eye. Significant differences were found among MPDc between the group of WNH (MPDc, 0.36 +/- 0.13 density units [DU]; P < 0.0001) and African subjects (MPDc, 0.59 +/- 0.14 DU). A parafoveal ring was significantly more frequent in African subjects than in WNH subjects (86% [African] vs. 68% [WNH]; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that ethnicity plays a role in MPD values and in MP distribution. The association of different distribution patterns and their relevance as possible prognostic factors for diseases leading to oxidative retinal damage requires further studies.

Effects of diabetes mellitus on periodontal and peri-implant conditions: update on associations and risks

OBJECTIVES: To review the evidence for the association between diabetes and periodontal and peri-implant conditions and the impact of periodontal therapy in subjects with diabetes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A search of MEDLINE-PubMed was performed up to and including December 2007. The search was limited to clinical studies published in English. Publications on animal studies were excluded. The selection criteria included all levels of available evidence. RESULTS: Evidence on the association between diabetes and periodontitis supports the concept of increased severity but not extent of periodontitis in subjects with poorly controlled diabetes. Subjects with controlled diabetes do not show an increase in extent and severity of periodontitis. Periodontitis is associated with poor glycaemic control and diabetes-related complications. It is inconclusive that periodontal therapy with or without the use of antibiotics results in improvements of glycaemic control and of markers of systemic inflammation. Evidence is lacking to indicate that implant therapy in subjects with diabetes yields long-term outcomes comparable with those of non-diabetic subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Poorly controlled diabetes may be considered a risk factor for increased severity of periodontitis. The effects of periodontal therapy on glycaemic control and systemic inflammation is not proven beyond doubt and need to be confirmed in large-scale randomized-controlled clinical trials.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.