Static replications with traffic light options

It is well known that sufficiently regular, one-dimensional payoff functions have an explicit static hedge by bonds, forward contracts, and options in a continuum of strikes. An easy and natural extension of the corresponding representation leads to static hedges based on the same instruments along with traffic light options, which have recently been introduced in the market. It is well known that the second strike derivative of non-discounted prices of vanilla options is related to the risk-neutral density of the underlying asset price in the corresponding absolutely continuous settings. Similar statements hold for traffic light options in sufficiently regular, bivariate settings.

Distinct subcellular expression patterns of neutral endopeptidase (CD10) in prostate cancer predict diverging clinical courses in surgically treated patients

PURPOSE: Neutral endopeptidase (CD10), an ectopeptidase bound to the cell surface, is thought to be a potential prognostic marker for prostate cancer. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Prostate cancer patients (N = 3,261) treated by radical prostatectomy at a single institution were evaluated by using tissue microarray. Follow-up data were available for 2,385 patients. The cellular domain (membranous, membranous-cytoplasmatic, and cytoplasmatic only) of CD10 expression was analyzed immunohistochemically and correlated with various clinical and histopathologic features of the tumors. RESULTS: CD10 expression was detected in 62.2% of cancer samples and occurred preferentially in higher Gleason pattern (P < 0.0001). CD10 expression positively correlated with adverse tumor features such as elevated preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), higher Gleason score, and advanced stage (P < 0.0001 each). Survival analyses showed that PSA recurrence was significantly associated with the staining pattern of CD10 expression. Outcome significantly declined from negative over membranous, membranous-cytoplasmatic, to exclusively cytoplasmatic CD10 expression (P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, CD10 expression was an independent predictor for PSA failure (P = 0.0343). CONCLUSIONS: CD10 expression is an unfavorable independent risk factor in prostate cancer. The subcellular location of CD10 protein is associated with specific clinical courses, suggesting an effect on different important biological properties of prostate cancer cells. The frequent expression of CD10 in prostate cancer and the strong association of CD10 with unfavorable tumor features may qualify this biomarker for targeted therapies.

Role of diuretics, blockers, and statins in increasing the risk of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: reanalysis of data from the NAVIGATOR study

OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.

Risk factors associated with cast complications in horses: 398 cases (1997-2006)

OBJECTIVE To determine the frequency of and risk factors for complications associated with casts in horses. DESIGN Multicenter retrospective case series. ANIMALS 398 horses with a half-limb or full-limb cast treated at 1 of 4 hospitals. PROCEDURES Data collected from medical records included age, breed, sex, injury, limb affected, time from injury to hospital admission, surgical procedure performed, type of cast (bandage cast [BC; fiberglass tape applied over a bandage] or traditional cast [TC; fiberglass tape applied over polyurethane resin-impregnated foam]), limb position in cast (flexed, neutral, or extended), and complications. Risk factors for cast complications were identified via multiple logistic regression. RESULTS Cast complications were detected in 197 of 398 (49%) horses (18/53 [34%] horses with a BC and 179/345 [52%] horses with a TC). Of the 197 horses with complications, 152 (77%) had clinical signs of complications prior to cast removal; the most common clinical signs were increased lameness severity and visibly detectable soft tissue damage Cast sores were the most common complication (179/398 [45%] horses). Casts broke for 20 (5%) horses. Three (0.8%) horses developed a bone fracture attributable to casting Median time to detection of complications was 12 days and 8 days for horses with TCs and BCs, respectively. Complications developed in 71%, 48%, and 47% of horses with the casted limb in a flexed, neutral, and extended position, respectively. For horses with TCs, hospital, limb position in the cast, and sex were significant risk factors for development of cast complications. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results indicated that 49% of horses with a cast developed cast complications.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Neural correlates of evaluating hazards of high risk.

In personal and in society related context, people often evaluate the risk of environmental and technological hazards. Previous research addressing neuroscience of risk evaluation assessed particularly the direct personal risk of presented stimuli, which may have comprised for instance aspects of fear. Further, risk evaluation primarily was compared to tasks of other cognitive domains serving as control conditions, thus revealing general risk related brain activity, but not such specifically associated with estimating a higher level of risk. We here investigated the neural basis on which lay-persons individually evaluated the risk of different potential hazards for the society. Twenty healthy subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while evaluating the risk of fifty more or less risky conditions presented as written terms. Brain activations during the individual estimations of 'high' against 'low' risk, and of negative versus neutral and positive emotional valences were analyzed. Estimating hazards to be of high risk was associated with activation in medial thalamus, anterior insula, caudate nucleus, cingulate cortex and further prefrontal and temporo-occipital areas. These areas were not involved according to an analysis of the emotion ratings. In conclusion, we emphasize a contribution of the mentioned brain areas involved to signal high risk, here not primarily associated with the emotional valence of the risk items. These areas have earlier been reported to be associated with, beside emotional, viscerosensitive and implicit processing. This leads to assumptions of an intuitive contribution, or a "gut-feeling", not necessarily dependent of the subjective emotional valence, when estimating a high risk of environmental hazards.

Visual avoidance in phobia: particularities in neural activity, autonomic responding, and cognitive risk evaluations.

We investigated the neural mechanisms and the autonomic and cognitive responses associated with visual avoidance behavior in spider phobia. Spider phobic and control participants imagined visiting different forest locations with the possibility of encountering spiders, snakes, or birds (neutral reference category). In each experimental trial, participants saw a picture of a forest location followed by a picture of a spider, snake, or bird, and then rated their personal risk of encountering these animals in this context, as well as their fear. The greater the visual avoidance of spiders that a phobic participant demonstrated (as measured by eye tracking), the higher were her autonomic arousal and neural activity in the amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and precuneus at picture onset. Visual avoidance of spiders in phobics also went hand in hand with subsequently reduced cognitive risk of encounters. Control participants, in contrast, displayed a positive relationship between gaze duration toward spiders, on the one hand, and autonomic responding, as well as OFC, ACC, and precuneus activity, on the other hand. In addition, they showed reduced encounter risk estimates when they looked longer at the animal pictures. Our data are consistent with the idea that one reason for phobics to avoid phobic information may be grounded in heightened activity in the fear circuit, which signals potential threat. Because of the absence of alternative efficient regulation strategies, visual avoidance may then function to down-regulate cognitive risk evaluations for threatening information about the phobic stimuli. Control participants, in contrast, may be characterized by a different coping style, whereby paying visual attention to potentially threatening information may help them to actively down-regulate cognitive evaluations of risk.